Here we go again with more flood advisories and warnings as the grounds in Puerto Rico continue to be saturated.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1231 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

PRC007-021-025-031-061-063-087-127-137-139-201830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0395.091120T1631Z-091120T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1231 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...
GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 230 PM AST

* AT 1230 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE
TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...EXPECT RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ALONG WITH THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS THROUGH
AT LEAST 230 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

The very last paragraph says it all about why the many flood advisories and warnings since last sunday.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND EXIT THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH/TUTT NOW
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER EAST WHILE
THE UPPER MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION...AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOSTLY SUBSIDENT PATTERN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE TRAILING THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS ONCE AGAIN INITIATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AND DISSIPATED
AFTER SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON SATURDAY....FAIRLY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL INHIBIT AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE EXPECTED
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY . THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL VARIATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/MOISTURE SURGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THEREAFTER...AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK EXPECT PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH MORE OF THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION WITH EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST AND
INTERIOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEE-SIDE OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 23Z...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST 21/16Z. IN ADDITION...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT...WITH ASH NEARING...BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF...TKPK AT THIS TIME.

.CLIMATE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RECEIVED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY...NOVEMBER 2009 IS NOW THE 4TH WETTEST
NOVEMBER ON RECORD. THE WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WAS NOVEMBER
1979...WHEN A TOTAL OF 15.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.

Tkanks for all these nice infos Luis. Hope not too much from this thing in your island, that could be very worrying, but let's wait and see what could really happen...
Off topic the BIG strike expected in Guadeloupe is confirmed for the 24th, and ...the 25th of November! That means streak days. I will keep you informed as usual and as possible.
Gustywind

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD
ALSO OCCUR. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP UPDATE.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS
TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES./ BCS

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. ALSO...ANY VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT
WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS./ BCS

Good morning to all.Hoping all of you are having a good weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOSTLY SUBSIDENT PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL DOPPLER CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT WILL COMBINE
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERIOR
SECTION AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CU LINES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER EL YUNQUE AND LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR CONDS IN TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON 19-21Z
TJBQ...AND SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY OVER TJSJ. VA EMISSIONS CONTINUE OFF
AND ON FROM MONTSERRAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF TKPK THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND AWAY FROM ALL OTHER SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY AS WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS WILL RESULT ON A
MODERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

I have to mention that we can post here information about what is going on with the Soufriere Volcano at Montserrat because it affects the weather in the NE Caribbean in a indirect way and sometimes directly depending from where the winds are blowing to send the ash plume to any of the islands far from the volcano.

Have a good night.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...
MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR.
INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE
PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES./ BCS

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. ALSO...VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OR WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO SIGMET JULIETT 2./ BCS

REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

Good morning to all .

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220630 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY ALLOWING FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON AND
NOCTURNAL PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEEK IN STORE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS MID LAT
SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH AND TROPICAL WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH NEXT 7
DAYS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RETURN TO NORMAL TODAY OR
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RETURN BACK TO CLIMO DIRECTION AND
SPEED. VERY SIMPLE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. BY NEXT WEEKEND GFS SHOWS A POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE SLOWED TIMING. UPDATED GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE MVFR TO IFR
TEMPO CONDS POSSIBLE 18Z-22Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT APPEARS TO BE
MOVING WNW ON IR IMAGERY WITH TRAJECTORY TOWARD TISX. APPEARS THAT
ASH CLOUD NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO TISX TO WARRANT IT IN THE
FORECAST...BUT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR ROUTES GOING TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BE AWARE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MUCH LONGER PERIOD ENERGY (12-14 SECONDS)
ARRIVES FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
BREAKERS AND COASTAL RUN UP FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SET OF
WEAK NELY SWELLS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE FIRST SIGNIFICANT NWLY SWELLS
OF THE SEASON ARRIVE EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 40 40 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

10/93

Hey Gusty,you took the lead today Good morning to all on this sunday before thanksgoving day.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THE WINDS WERE MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
TO INDUCE A NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THIS MORNING...WITH GENTLY INCREASING
NORTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

$$

Yeah Luis, that was not easy , tkanks for this comment i appreciate. Have a good day too

Good night to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS EVENING. SATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING INDICATED A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
DAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH 23/0400Z. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TISX...
TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK FROM 23/0400Z-23/1100Z. VA AND GAS EMISSIONS
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM TRPG...BUT LOW LEVEL STEERING...NOW MORE
FROM THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...WILL MAINTAIN THE ASH/GAS
EMISSIONS WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL FLYING AREA.