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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2012 2:20 pm 
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Portastorm wrote:
Hey MGC, that is a great idea! Love it! :lol:

Meanwhile, here is what Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center have to say about Tireman4's questions:

1) Absolutely
2) Beatles
3) More than 1 inch but less than 5 inches.



You may need a truck load of Grey Goose this year Porta for the PWC. You could be snowed in!!! Woo Hoo


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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2012 6:13 pm 
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I can't wait 'til the first cold front of the season comes through. Hopefully we are able to bring a shot of cool air down here by mid to late September.

You can only stick your head in the freezer for so long.


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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 10:58 am 
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iorange55 wrote:
I can't wait 'til the first cold front of the season comes through. Hopefully we are able to bring a shot of cool air down here by mid to late September.

You can only stick your head in the freezer for so long.



That would sound wonderful right now! I am encouraged by this thread and tempted to start shopping mittens and winter wear but knowing my luck I can jinks the whole atmosphere just like a football season-


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 8:16 pm 
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Can you imagine...

If the current weather pattern over Texas was taking place with temps in the 20s and 30s?!?!? :D

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:57 am 
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Texas Snowman wrote:
Can you imagine...

If the current weather pattern over Texas was taking place with temps in the 20s and 30s?!?!? :D



And it may not be as far fetched as one could imagine....LOL


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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:46 pm 
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Tireman4 wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:
Can you imagine...

If the current weather pattern over Texas was taking place with temps in the 20s and 30s?!?!? :D



And it may not be as far fetched as one could imagine....LOL


Don't tease me like that!! :cheesy:
At least we have a hope! :cold: :froze:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2012 11:12 am 
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Glad this thread is started! Already 5 pages, can't wait to get the winter discussions going.


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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:32 am 
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An update on how are things doing with ENSO. I can say that at least a small delay of El Nino comming may occur as the MJO that produce the Kelvin Waves that warm the Pacific waters is sill stucked in the Indian Ocean. Also,the CPC 7/16/12 update came in with Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C. What would a minimal delay of El Nino comming may mean for the winter in Texas remains to be seen at this time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:21 pm 
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I'm getting a little more concerned that our winter won't be as cool and wet as I thought about a month ago. The current delay of the warming SST's and now the Nino models are now showing a peak of around 1 degree C, compared to them showing a peak of nearly 2 degrees C last month. I still hope we can have a moderate El Nino event this winter with plenty of cold and wet weather for Texas!

Ntxw, what are your latest thoughts on this? Do you still think we will have a mod El Nino event this winter?


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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:07 pm 
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South Texas Storms wrote:
I'm getting a little more concerned that our winter won't be as cool and wet as I thought about a month ago. The current delay of the warming SST's and now the Nino models are now showing a peak of around 1 degree C, compared to them showing a peak of nearly 2 degrees C last month. I still hope we can have a moderate El Nino event this winter with plenty of cold and wet weather for Texas!

Ntxw, what are your latest thoughts on this? Do you still think we will have a mod El Nino event this winter?


Don't fear! Fluctuations in a developing Nino (or Nina) is inevitable this time of year. 2009 had the same thing happen, in July things kind of just came to a halt with the warming. The ups and downs currently effect more on the tropical season as the conditions transitions between neutral and warm enso. Our winter is when the peak of the ENSO state is as the southern ocean warms naturally and that is when the Nino will have it's greatest grip. History shows that some of the most dramatic warming, or cooling, occurs between Sept and Nov. I still firmly believe a moderate Nino will still happen. This is a classic case of Nino start east and end up most powerful central/west based come peak.

I'm not as confident about ENSO states and predictions during tropical season and summer, but for winter the confidence I have is much higher. Even with the SOI's changes, subsurface warm pool is unchanged. As long as this is true only way for it to gradually go is up!

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:40 pm 
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Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
I'm getting a little more concerned that our winter won't be as cool and wet as I thought about a month ago. The current delay of the warming SST's and now the Nino models are now showing a peak of around 1 degree C, compared to them showing a peak of nearly 2 degrees C last month. I still hope we can have a moderate El Nino event this winter with plenty of cold and wet weather for Texas!

Ntxw, what are your latest thoughts on this? Do you still think we will have a mod El Nino event this winter?


Don't fear! Fluctuations in a developing Nino (or Nina) is inevitable this time of year. 2009 had the same thing happen, in July things kind of just came to a halt with the warming. The ups and downs currently effect more on the tropical season as the conditions transitions between neutral and warm enso. Our winter is when the peak of the ENSO state is as the southern ocean warms naturally and that is when the Nino will have it's greatest grip. History shows that some of the most dramatic warming, or cooling, occurs between Sept and Nov. I still firmly believe a moderate Nino will still happen. This is a classic case of Nino start east and end up most powerful central/west based come peak.

I'm not as confident about ENSO states and predictions during tropical season and summer, but for winter the confidence I have is much higher. Even with the SOI's changes, subsurface warm pool is unchanged. As long as this is true only way for it to gradually go is up!


Thanks for the nice detailed reply! So I'm assuming you agree with the latest long range forecast released from CPC today? Their forecast makes me very happy! I hope it verifies!
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 1:42 pm 
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^ Looks good based on Enso forecast. Wxman57 likes to mention cold source region. Keeping an eye on how cold it gets in the Arctic regions/Western Canada in the fall may provide some insight on the types of air masses will come down in the winter.

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 2:43 pm 
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Ntxw, what do you think of this Mid July update of the ENSO Models in terms of how the Winter in Texas may be? Is this what you expected? I posted the discussion at the ENSO thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&hilit=&p=2240304#p2240304

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 3:36 pm 
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^ They have been wavering month by month so hard to say. Doing a little research of past El Ninos it appears that nearly all of Ninos following double Ninas or Nina/Neutral were generally near or above 1c anomaly (source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...ensoyears.shtml.) That is why I continue to believe the Nino will be moderate at it's peak. A weak nino may be good enough for a cold/wet winter but moderate is best and tends to favor a -AO (very important!) for Texas.

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 3:53 pm 
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South Texas Storms wrote:
I'm getting a little more concerned that our winter won't be as cool and wet as I thought about a month ago. The current delay of the warming SST's and now the Nino models are now showing a peak of around 1 degree C, compared to them showing a peak of nearly 2 degrees C last month. I still hope we can have a moderate El Nino event this winter with plenty of cold and wet weather for Texas!

Ntxw, what are your latest thoughts on this? Do you still think we will have a mod El Nino event this winter?


Ah, someone after my own heart! Let's enjoy the summer heat while it lasts!


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 3:33 am 
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I think it's a completely reasonable expectation that we'll see a decent snowdump this winter. Of course, a nice snowdump with a bulls'eye directly over your house is ALWAYS a stretch in even the snowiest winter.... but I do think there will be a good 4"+ snowfall within, say, 100-200 miles of most of the posters here, at some point this winter. It shouldn't be too far to chase. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:26 am 
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This is just one reason why I love Storm2K so much ... here we are in mid July and we already have five pages of this thread about a winter season still 4-5 months away! Fantastic!!

Wxman57 will be doing his best to shunt below-normal temps and above-normal precip away from the Lone Star State while the rest of us will be beckoning it with a passion. :lol:

JB in various tweets over the last month or so believes that the Fall season will start early and be quite cold over much of the nation, including Texas. He has also been making a lot of comments about a very cold winter. We shall see.

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are reviewing data in preparation for the release of their winter forecast in late August/early September. I'm told they already believe the threat for ice storms in the south central Texas area will be increased over recent years. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 11:50 am 
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South Texas Storms wrote:
I'm getting a little more concerned that our winter won't be as cool and wet as I thought about a month ago. The current delay of the warming SST's and now the Nino models are now showing a peak of around 1 degree C, compared to them showing a peak of nearly 2 degrees C last month. I still hope we can have a moderate El Nino event this winter with plenty of cold and wet weather for Texas!

Ntxw, what are your latest thoughts on this? Do you still think we will have a mod El Nino event this winter?


I think we will have a moderate El Nino.

wxman57 wrote:
Ah, someone after my own heart! Let's enjoy the summer heat while it lasts!


It is not hot as last summer. Anyways, bring on winter. 8-) :grrr:


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 12:30 pm 
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Man, I get back from 2 weeks in Mexico where it was cool and rainy the entire time and come back and see the El Nino might be delayed. Say it isn't so. I'm with iorange55, the dog days are here so that first cool front in September is going to feel sooooo nice. What does a delay discussed in previous posts mean for our fall and winter? Too early to tell? I need some cold.


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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 1:55 pm 
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gpsnowman wrote:
Man, I get back from 2 weeks in Mexico where it was cool and rainy the entire time and come back and see the El Nino might be delayed. Say it isn't so. I'm with iorange55, the dog days are here so that first cool front in September is going to feel sooooo nice. What does a delay discussed in previous posts mean for our fall and winter? Too early to tell? I need some cold.


Hi. The best person to explain in detailed way is Ntxw as he knows all the twists and turns of ENSO and other factors that are involved to determine how the 2012-2013 Winter in Texas will be like. I only can tell you that at some point in the next few weeks El Nino will be officially declared,but how strong it will be is still not known and depending on how strong it will be the Winter will behave in that state and that is where I leave it to him to explain the rest. :)

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