South Texas Storms wrote:
I'm getting a little more concerned that our winter won't be as cool and wet as I thought about a month ago. The current delay of the warming SST's and now the Nino models are now showing a peak of around 1 degree C, compared to them showing a peak of nearly 2 degrees C last month. I still hope we can have a moderate El Nino event this winter with plenty of cold and wet weather for Texas!
Ntxw, what are your latest thoughts on this? Do you still think we will have a mod El Nino event this winter?
Don't fear! Fluctuations in a developing Nino (or Nina) is inevitable this time of year. 2009 had the same thing happen, in July things kind of just came to a halt with the warming. The ups and downs currently effect more on the tropical season as the conditions transitions between neutral and warm enso. Our winter is when the peak of the ENSO state is as the southern ocean warms naturally and that is when the Nino will have it's greatest grip. History shows that some of the most dramatic warming, or cooling, occurs between Sept and Nov. I still firmly believe a moderate Nino will still happen. This is a classic case of Nino start east and end up most powerful central/west based come peak.
I'm not as confident about ENSO states and predictions during tropical season and summer, but for winter the confidence I have is much higher. Even with the SOI's changes, subsurface warm pool is unchanged. As long as this is true only way for it to gradually go is up!