Texas Winter 2012-2013

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Ptarmigan
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#201 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:Anyone waiting to hear my forecast for the Texas winter? :grrr:


I like winter cold. 8-)

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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#202 Postby Terri » Fri Sep 21, 2012 5:10 am

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Oh ... so y'all have heard already ... winter=cancel. :wink:



Boo and hiss!
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#203 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:40 am

Something to glance at, anyone else see the cross polar flow (or close to it) near the end of the model run? Lets hope this is the trend for the winter. Throws a solid high pressure right into Montana, right where we want it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#204 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:16 am

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Oh ... so y'all have heard already ... winter=cancel. :wink:

OMG!! Is that Wxman57 dancing down the street in his biking shorts waving his shirt over his head??? :eek: :eek:
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#205 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:51 pm

Joe Bastardi put out a winter forecast on his blog. He's basically following his idea back in 2009, Dallas to DC. Core of cold anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic and above snow from Texas through the southeast. Warm and drier in the upper tier of the country to NW. Classic Nino look.
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#206 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:Joe Bastardi put out a winter forecast on his blog. He's basically following his idea back in 2009, Dallas to DC. Core of cold anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic and above snow from Texas through the southeast. Warm and drier in the upper tier of the country to NW. Classic Nino look.


I agree, similar to 2009. That was a cold one and ill take it.
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#207 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:14 am

Got down to 64 this morning :D
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#208 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:21 am

Happy Autumnal Equinox everybody! It's now that time of year where Wxman's daylight hours are lessening and he gears up for hibernation. The sun will not rise high in the sky at the north pole and will almost nonexistent there in a few weeks. May the arctic highs be aplenty this cold season :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#209 Postby JackCruz » Sat Sep 22, 2012 11:48 am

Cannot wait for record breaking temps...and snowfall

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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#210 Postby Terri » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:28 pm

Portastorm wrote:Alright. Forecast is finished. Just working now on the maps. Hope to post on Sunday with the whole package.


:uarrow: What 's tomorrow???? That's right! ..... Bated breath.... Warning, it simply must include snow. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#211 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:46 am

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PWC Calling for “The Winter of Wxman57’s Discontent”

American novelist and playwright Sinclair Lewis once wrote: “Winter is not a season, it's an occupation.” If that is true and the Portastorm Weather Center (PWC) forecast for Texas Winter 2012-13 verifies, there will be plenty of work to go around for Texas winter enthusiasts between December and February. The PWC is forecasting an aggressive return to winter for the Lone Star State after the dreadfully warm and drab so-called “winter” of 2011-12. With so much potential on the table, it may be time for the PWC meteorologists to put down the Grey Goose and focus on the weather.

“We’re calling it the ‘Winter of Wxman57’s Discontent.’ All signs point to an active winter in Texas, the kind of season which will give many joy on Storm 2K … except for that heatmiser down in the Houston area,” said the lead forecaster for the PWC. “Wxman57 had lots of laughs on us last year but this winter season the laugh will be on him. So will plenty of cold rain and an ice pellet and even a snowflake or two!”

The PWC says with a weak El Nino signature (central to west based), an Aleutian low which will be further displaced south and east of its usual location, a strong ridge somewhat persistent in Alaska, a primarily negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the winter starting off with mainly a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PWC believes the atmosphere should be lined up to present several wintry weather threats to Texas. PWC believes that the best chances will occur during the first half of winter and that the second half of winter (late January thru early March) will show some moderation from what may be a brutal start to the winter season. History has shown us that El Nino’s which occur during negative PDO phases tend to be weaker and more short-lived

“With an active southern jet and sporadic blasts of Arctic air, we should see several winter storms roll across the state, creating a wide variety of weather from severe weather in the southern portions to ice and snow to the north of the low pressure systems,” PWC says. “The best analog years we came up with are 1939-40, 1962-63, 1967-68, 1976-77, and 2009-2010.”

PWC added: “We do believe that the mean position of the winter trough will move to the eastern US later in winter as a negative AO and NAO develop. While that can present some wintry ‘fun’ for Texas, it will not feature as many opportunities as earlier in the winter. We think the most exciting Texas winter weather events will occur in December and January.”

As for maps, the PWC apologizes for the lack of maps with this forecast. PWC forecasters struggled with map software for several days and finally gave up. One unnamed forecaster claimed that the lead forecaster spilled Grey Goose into the mainframe in celebration of finishing the forecast.

Overall – December (below to much below normal temps, above normal precipitation), January (below normal temps, slightly above normal precipitation), February (normal temps, normal precip).
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#212 Postby natlib » Sun Sep 23, 2012 11:00 am

What a wonderful forecast Portastorm! I hope you are correct! I think I speak for many when saying if the winter months can produce moisture in any form......we will all be happy!

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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#213 Postby Terri » Sun Sep 23, 2012 12:07 pm

I raise a snifter of Old Rasputin (my favorite Russian Imperial Stout) in honor of the PWC's most aptly named ( :wink: ) and enthusiastically embraced winter forecast! Here's to hoping (really hoping) it turns out as cast! I hear that polartech riding garments can be quite useful for winter bicycle riding.... :lol: I am sure they sell such garments in Houston!
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#214 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:39 pm

Ntxw , anything important about the CPC update of decreasing values at Nino 3.4 to +0.3C? What it may mean if anything at all for Winter in Texas?
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#215 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ntxw , anything important about the CPC update of decreasing values at Nino 3.4 to +0.3C? What it may mean if anything at all for Winter in Texas?


I see no changes for the forecast. One or two week changes in ENSO doesn't do much in the overall long term averages especially when the changes have happened before in August-Sept for El Ninos, I fully expect it to recover and that the cooling was only a small surface-based change. A lesser Nino will mean more cold less wet vice versa.

Though to be honest I am now leaning closer to weak Nino vs low end moderate which I thought before. But for all purposes I'm going to stick with the latter unless I see something happen drastically.

Also nice forecast Portastorm :wink:. PWC will be put to hard work this winter if the ideas verify!
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#216 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:53 pm

:uarrow:

Nice forecast yourself, Ntxw! I look forward to your input and dialogue this fall and winter. You and Cycloneye do a great job on keeping us updated on ENSO!
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#217 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 24, 2012 7:32 pm

We are obligated to present both sides to the story so I am posting this hesitantly since the channel has gone down hill from it's heyday. One of the few big forecasters calling for a warm start to winter.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... k-20120924
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Re:

#218 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:03 am

Ntxw wrote:We are obligated to present both sides to the story so I am posting this hesitantly since the channel has gone down hill from it's heyday. One of the few big forecasters calling for a warm start to winter.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... k-20120924


I could not agree with you more Ntwx! I remember when that channel only had a screen with current data and radar, going back and forth, with the NOAA weather radio in the background (actual person and not a computer-generated voice). My brother and I would watch it being the weather buffs we are. Then, they brought on a staff, and the forecast would come on once every 10 minutes. Then, commercials were added. Now, you're lucky if you ever see a forecast. 99% of the time I change it to that channel, I never see the forecast. :x So, I stopped watching it, but I have the free app. on my phone.

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Re:

#219 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 25, 2012 8:30 am

Ntxw wrote:We are obligated to present both sides to the story so I am posting this hesitantly since the channel has gone down hill from it's heyday. One of the few big forecasters calling for a warm start to winter.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... k-20120924


I like that forecast! "Warmer" in October and "Much Warmer" in December for Texas. Maybe a winter like 1985-1986 when we hit the 90s in Houston in February? That's probably too much to hope for, though...

Typically, our (southeast TX) snowiest month is February, by the way.

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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#220 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:05 am

:uarrow:

You would like that forecast! :roll:
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