PWC Calling for “The Winter of Wxman57’s Discontent”
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
American novelist and playwright Sinclair Lewis once wrote: “Winter is not a season, it's an occupation.” If that is true and the Portastorm Weather Center (PWC) forecast for Texas Winter 2012-13 verifies, there will be plenty of work to go around for Texas winter enthusiasts between December and February. The PWC is forecasting an aggressive return to winter for the Lone Star State after the dreadfully warm and drab so-called “winter” of 2011-12. With so much potential on the table, it may be time for the PWC meteorologists to put down the Grey Goose and focus on the weather.
“We’re calling it the ‘Winter of Wxman57’s Discontent.’ All signs point to an active winter in Texas, the kind of season which will give many joy on Storm 2K … except for that heatmiser down in the Houston area,” said the lead forecaster for the PWC. “Wxman57 had lots of laughs on us last year but this winter season the laugh will be on him. So will plenty of cold rain and an ice pellet and even a snowflake or two!”
The PWC says with a weak El Nino signature (central to west based), an Aleutian low which will be further displaced south and east of its usual location, a strong ridge somewhat persistent in Alaska, a primarily negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the winter starting off with mainly a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PWC believes the atmosphere should be lined up to present several wintry weather threats to Texas. PWC believes that the best chances will occur during the first half of winter and that the second half of winter (late January thru early March) will show some moderation from what may be a brutal start to the winter season. History has shown us that El Nino’s which occur during negative PDO phases tend to be weaker and more short-lived
“With an active southern jet and sporadic blasts of Arctic air, we should see several winter storms roll across the state, creating a wide variety of weather from severe weather in the southern portions to ice and snow to the north of the low pressure systems,” PWC says. “The best analog years we came up with are 1939-40, 1962-63, 1967-68, 1976-77, and 2009-2010.”
PWC added: “We do believe that the mean position of the winter trough will move to the eastern US later in winter as a negative AO and NAO develop. While that can present some wintry ‘fun’ for Texas, it will not feature as many opportunities as earlier in the winter. We think the most exciting Texas winter weather events will occur in December and January.”
As for maps, the PWC apologizes for the lack of maps with this forecast. PWC forecasters struggled with map software for several days and finally gave up. One unnamed forecaster claimed that the lead forecaster spilled Grey Goose into the mainframe in celebration of finishing the forecast.Overall – December (below to much below normal temps, above normal precipitation), January (below normal temps, slightly above normal precipitation), February (normal temps, normal precip).