Texas Winter 2013-2014

[WeatherGuesser]

Your coworker is right. I have the same thought. We are currently in a "hot" house world going into a "cold" house world. Right before ice ages, the Earth heats up, unpredictable weather. We have seen evidence of this in the geologic record. Won't be a flash freeze like several movies have shown, but a gradual cooling.

Likely over a period longer than a typical human lifetime. Maybe by several times longer.

Remember how the Great Lakes were formed. Or at least the theory of how.

[HouTXmetro]

I know we have a WSA in effect but are we looking at serious threat of Winter Weather or just a small possibility? Will the temps be cold enough or border line? HGX area

[wxman57]

I know we have a WSA in effect but are we looking at serious threat of Winter Weather or just a small possibility? Will the temps be cold enough or border line? HGX area

The threat appears to be across northern parts of the city, not in central Houston (like the med center to downgtown). Possibly some issues with bridges/overpasses north of Beltway 8 through Conroe and Huntsville.

[ndale]

I know were debating about recent warm weather helping the road situation with freezing precip. This may be interesting from Jeff on another forum: "Air temperatures in the low to mid 20’s have cooled roadway surfaces to near/below freezing (US 290 at SH 6) is currently reporting a roadway temperature of 25.6 degrees. While there will be some recovery today with the high March sun angle…think roadway surfaces will cool quickly to freezing this evening."

I know that is the Houston area but we should have a similar scenario.

[Tireman4]

I know we have a WSA in effect but are we looking at serious threat of Winter Weather or just a small possibility? Will the temps be cold enough or border line? HGX area

Wxman 57 can speak to this, but it looked like North of Houston and north...but I could be mistaken...

[gboudx]

im seriously thinking about calling for help for wxman57.......something has got to be wrong....... has he lost his mind??????

He's trying to kill y'all with kindness. Don't fall for it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sun just came out, temps may get close to 40F

[Texas Snowman]

I'd rather have a super cell stall right on top of me or a squall line train over me. We really need the rain.

No, you don't want that. You want a good, long, gentle, soaking rain over a few days.

We do need gentle, soaking rains.

But I'm afraid that many lakes - and in some parts of the state, most - are so incredibly low that it will take flash flooding type rains to fill them up again.

Case in point - nearby Lake Texoma reached its lowest level ever in 1957 after the 1952-57 drought in Oklahoma (and northwestern Texas too, both of which feed Texoma by way of the Red River and the Washita River).

The lowest level ever recorded at Texoma was 599.94 feet above sea level on March 20, 1957. (It's at 608.24 right now, the lowest since 1979).

But by May of 1957, the lake surged upwards after heavy rains (especially in mid-May) and topped the emergency spillway for the first time ever at 640.00 feet.

From lowest to highest in a little more than two months, but it took some SERIOUS rain to get it done.

[wxman57]

im seriously thinking about calling for help for wxman57.......something has got to be wrong....... has he lost his mind??????

He's trying to kill y'all with kindness. Don't fall for it.

No, really, I DO love the cold weather!

[Texas Snowman]

Off topic, still on the idea of needing big time precip.

Found this while researching my answer (correct Texoma pool levels) and came across this. After the horrific 1952-57 drought in Oklahoma and Texas, the Sooner State got INCREDIBLY wet as the drought ended.

http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/climate ... /1950_1959

1957: Wettest May of century, statewide-averaged precipitation of 10.68 inches.

1957: Annual precipitation at Kiamichi Tower, 84.47 inches, greatest of century at any reporting station.

1957: Wettest year of Century with a statewide-averaged precipitation of 48.21 inches.

[orangeblood]

Things are going to get really interesting tonight around here. Especially with the QPFs showing what they are showing.

The SREF had an average of .50 qpf but NWS is expecting .03 to .10?

Correction .63 for HOU

Been following the SREF for quite some time and it's mean is GARBAGE.....example, yesterdays storm the SREF had a mean of 0.35 inch QPF for DFW, actually mean for the entire Metroplex was no more than 0.08 inch. Overall, for QPF, the GFS is probably your best bet and that is really saying something. Models are having a really hard time with these convective features as they seem to over forecast QPF

[Texas Snowman]

No, really, I DO love the cold weather!

Somebody take a picture of his Avatar, quick!!!!!

[South Texas Storms]

im seriously thinking about calling for help for wxman57.......something has got to be wrong....... has he lost his mind??????

He's trying to kill y'all with kindness. Don't fall for it.

No, really, I DO love the cold weather!

Hahaha did one of the cold mongerer's hack into wxman's account? This is crazy!

[Snowman67]

I know we have a WSA in effect but are we looking at serious threat of Winter Weather or just a small possibility? Will the temps be cold enough or border line? HGX area

The threat appears to be across northern parts of the city, not in central Houston (like the med center to downgtown). Possibly some issues with bridges/overpasses north of Beltway 8 through Conroe and Huntsville.

Do you think it could be bad enough to cancel school in Tomball? We've already had two cancellation days due to ice this year. I know it's tough to forecast any given location, especially when temps may be borderline, but interested in your thoughts.

[Ntxw]

I'd rather have a super cell stall right on top of me or a squall line train over me. We really need the rain.

No, you don't want that. You want a good, long, gentle, soaking rain over a few days.

We do need gentle, soaking rains.

But I'm afraid that many lakes - and in some parts of the state, most - are so incredibly low that it will take flash flooding type rains to fill them up again.

Case in point - nearby Lake Texoma reached its lowest level ever in 1957 after the 1952-57 drought in Oklahoma (and northwestern Texas too, both of which feed Texoma by way of the Red River and the Washita River).

The lowest level ever recorded at Texoma was 599.94 feet above sea level on March 20, 1957. (It's at 608.24 right now, the lowest since 1979).

But by May of 1957, the lake surged upwards after heavy rains (especially in mid-May) and topped the emergency spillway for the first time ever at 640.00 feet.

From lowest to highest in a little more than two months, but it took some SERIOUS rain to get it done.

Major El Nino turned on in 1957 that ended the decade's drought.

[downsouthman1]

12Z GFS any moment & then in about 6-12 hours it's the HRRR's turn. Does anyone know how it performed yesterday? I wasn't watching much as this was mainly a NE storm.

[orangeblood]

Hmm, what if summer never returned?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Note that one of the causes was historically low solar activity (something we're currently observing). My coworker thinks we may be heading for a mini ice age.

Prediction.....The AGW Crowd will explain it away by saying that the magical 400 parts per million bad CO2 is making up for 14 gazillion watts of solar energy lost from low solar

[Portastorm]

Hmm, what if summer never returned?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Note that one of the causes was historically low solar activity (something we're currently observing). My coworker thinks we may be heading for a mini ice age.

Prediction.....The AGW Crowd will explain it away by saying that the magical 400 parts per million bad CO2 is making up for 14 gazillion watts of solar energy lost from low solar

Uh, let's not go there please.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hmm, what if summer never returned?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Note that one of the causes was historically low solar activity (something we're currently observing). My coworker thinks we may be heading for a mini ice age.

Prediction.....The AGW Crowd will explain it away by saying that the magical 400 parts per million bad CO2 is making up for 14 gazillion watts of solar energy lost from low solar

I'll never forget when i came to light about the mini ice age. There was a wonderful program on the history channel sometime around 2004-2006. It was 2 hours long and talked about how it effected the world economically. Of course it also discussed meteorologically what happened and i was fascinated. Finally found a definitive argument to global warming. But thats a whole nother thread!

Also, Europe has been very cold these last few years.

[Texas Snowman]

No, really, I DO love the cold weather!

Somebody take a picture of his Avatar, quick!!!!!

Preserved in perpetuity!