Texas Winter 2013-2014

[orangeblood]

Hmm, what if summer never returned?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Note that one of the causes was historically low solar activity (something we're currently observing). My coworker thinks we may be heading for a mini ice age.

Prediction.....The AGW Crowd will explain it away by saying that the magical 400 parts per million bad CO2 is making up for 14 gazillion watts of solar energy lost from low solar

I'll never forget when i came to light about the mini ice age. There was a wonderful program on the history channel sometime around 2004-2006. It was 2 hours long and talked about how it effected the world economically. Of course it also discussed meteorologically what happened and i was fascinated. Finally found a definitive argument to global warming. But thats a whole nother thread!

Also, Europe has been very cold these last few years.

Yes, it is a fascinating topic that I could discuss for hours on end and actually wish Storm2k would open a thread for it ?

[Texas Snowman]

Major El Nino turned on in 1957 that ended the decade's drought.

Yes sir, it did.

Still amazing that 1956 was one of the driest years on record for Oklahoma in the 20th century and 1957 was THE wettest year of the century.

[aggiecutter]

Woke up this morning and the ground and the roof tops had a dusting of snow. That was unexpected. BTW, props to Joe Haynes at KTBS channel 3 in Shreveport for forecasting this winter storm 3 days in advance when none of the models or local NWS forecast offices were even mentioning it. Haynes, who is also a marathon runner, has attained various degrees at both the University of Texas and Texas A&M University. Here's his BIO:
http://www.ktbs.com/story/22274559/joe-haynes

[Kelarie]

Your coworker is right. I have the same thought. We are currently in a "hot" house world going into a "cold" house world. Right before ice ages, the Earth heats up, unpredictable weather. We have seen evidence of this in the geologic record. Won't be a flash freeze like several movies have shown, but a gradual cooling.

Likely over a period longer than a typical human lifetime. Maybe by several times longer.

Remember how the Great Lakes were formed. Or at least the theory of how.

I think in geologic time which differs from "real" time. A 100,000 years is just a drop in the bucket for geologic time. True it will probably not happen within our lives, it will.

[WeatherGuesser]

But I'm afraid that many lakes - and in some parts of the state, most - are so incredibly low that it will take flash flooding type rains to fill them up again.

But with as dry as things have been wouldn't that cause problems with runoff? Washing topsoil away that would plug up streams?

[katheria]

very interesting read about 1816 with quotes from diaries of the time

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/history/1816.htm

[gboudx]

Yes, it is a fascinating topic that I could discuss for hours on end and actually wish Storm2k would open a thread for it ?

There used to be threads on the Global Weather board for climate change discussion. I don't visit that board but maybe there's still something there that can be resurrected if it's off page 1.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is what I'm thinking about the possible winter weather event tonight:
Another winter weather event is likely across central and southeast Texas tonight through tomorrow morning. Freezing rain and sleet could begin to develop across the region around midnight tonight and may continue through Tuesday morning. Austin, College Station, and the northern parts of San Antonio and Houston could get some ice accumulations from this event.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[PineyWoods]

I know this event is winding down but we are still getting snow flurries here in south Tyler with a temp at 11am of 20°F
Wow ... March 3

[Texas Snowman]

Winding down in the northern half of the state, about to wind up a bit in the southern part of Texas!

[Texas Snowman]

Still AMAZED at the strength of this Arctic air mass.

Bright sunshine here in Denison and it's still only 18 degrees at 11 a.m.

That is tough to get in January, let alone in early March.

[downsouthman1]

Winding down in the northern half of the state, about to wind up a bit in the southern part of Texas!

& central. mid-level clouds began thickening about an hour ago.

[WeatherGuesser]

[url=http://www.kwtx.com/home/headlines/ERCOT-Urges-Conservation-Some-Power-Outages-Reported-248199951.html]ERCOT Urges Conservation; Some Power Outages Reported
KWTX[/url] - ‎1 hour ago‎



DALLAS (March 3, 2014) The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates most of the state's electric grid, called for conservation Monday as near record low temperatures gripped much of the state.

[Portastorm]

Wow ... I'm seeing some absolutely terrible forecasts coming out of TV mets in Austin today. Forecast highs of 43 today ... LOL ... really? We're not even at freezing yet at lunchtime. And some are showing high temps Tuesday of 47.

My frustration is the usual which we all have expressed on here at one time or another this winter season. Folks in our lives see these forecasts and then get all skeptical and doubt what we, amateurs who know at least a little about the weather, tell them.

I see these forecasts though and just shake my head and mutter.

[Tireman4]

Wow ... I'm seeing some absolutely terrible forecasts coming out of TV mets in Austin today. Forecast highs of 43 today ... LOL ... really? We're not even at freezing yet at lunchtime. And some are showing high temps Tuesday of 47.

My frustration is the usual which we all have expressed on here at one time or another this winter season. Folks in our lives see these forecasts and then get all skeptical and doubt what we, amateurs who know at least a little about the weather, tell them.

I see these forecasts though and just shake my head and mutter.

But Porta, we look good doing it. Look at our suits. Betcha yours does not look like ours!! We have 100K smiles too. Ratings...

[downsouthman1]

I'm skeptical too Porta. But part of it is because I'm hoping my skepticism somehow leads to a reduced chance of ice.

Edit: Of note: This storm is clearly digging further south than yesterday's. This one is in SErn AZ & yesterday's blasted through NErn AZ IIRC.

Another edit: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html This loop in the last few frames you can really see the ULL tightening up & appearing to develop a more neutral tilt.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL REACH CNTRL/SRN TX
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ERN STATES. LEE TROUGHING
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SCNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN TX ABOVE THE STABLE
POST FRONTAL LAYER. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OVER SRN TX DURING THE MORNING...SHIFTING INTO THE WRN GULF
BY NOON.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2014

[dhweather]

We still might get to 500 pages this winter - which is remarkable.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is a bit wetter and colder across central and SE Texas tonight through tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

Temps reached the lower 40s in Austin as of 1pm. Currently 41F at ATT (39 at AUS). A rather pleasant 40F at IAH this hour.