Texas Winter 2014-2015

[natlib]

So does anyone want to jump in and predict the first big cold front for Texas??? I'm ready for some 40's at night!

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 is slowly falling into place. It is showing signs the pattern of the epic snowy winters (notice the snowy part and not brutally cold). Dominant Aleutian low, NW NA ridge and split flow underneath across Texas bring low heights (this is important for snow prospects). From November through March.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Mon.html

Any bets between the big 4 Texas cities on who will get the footer this winter from a bowling ball low pressure system?

[TheProfessor]

Well 1 footers look possible in DFW, Austin and San Antonio (if the cold makes it that far) during February and if it get cold enough maybe a big snow event for parts of North Texas during early March.I'm still waiting for my 2 footer though, unfortunately there's a good chance that won't be happening any time soon, at least probably nut until we get out of these drier times and into wetter ones years from now.

[WeatherGuesser]

Just hope the sub-tropical jet gets a bit more active this winter. We had a pretty good sleet event in January 2014 but I'd like for my great-granddaughter to see a significant snow event. She just turned 4...MGC

Sorry, but snow brings too much misery, discomfort and potential loss of life to hope for it for such a reason.

[Ntxw]

Well 1 footers look possible in DFW, Austin and San Antonio (if the cold makes it that far) during February and if it get cold enough maybe a big snow event for parts of North Texas during early March.I'm still waiting for my 2 footer though, unfortunately there's a good chance that won't be happening any time soon, at least probably nut until we get out of these drier times and into wetter ones years from now.

Since 1900 the top 5 wettest winters for DFW produced very little snow. All were less than 0.5 inches except one 1937-1938. Almost all the wettest winters in the top 10 were rather snowless and wet 2011-2012 was the 6th wettest and we know how that turned out. Rain in the winter months means warm air aloft. Too much rain means warm air is overrunning above. What you want is persistent strong systems, not necessarily wet systems and all about timing.

[TheProfessor]

I was it talking about just rain and wetness during the winter just wetness overall meaning the Southern Jet being more active through out the whole year, it was pretty dry before 2011-2012's wet winter, but is seems like during some of the wetter time periods in the 1900s that there were more seasons where places in Texas saw a lot of snow, and it wasn't every winter because not all of them had those Arctic outbreaks we need for it just like 2011-2012 and it wasn't the coldest winters that produced those snow storms either. Its the mixture of the cold and wet winters I was talking about, the ones where are temperature's are in the low 30s allowing for there to be enough moisture because as we saw last year, it becomes too dry for huge snowstorms to occur when our temperatures get into the low 20s and teens.

[Ntxw]

I was it talking about just rain and wetness during the winter just wetness overall meaning the Southern Jet being more active through out the whole year, it was pretty dry before 2011-2012's wet winter, but is seems like during some of the wetter time periods in the 1900s that there were more seasons where places in Texas saw a lot of snow, and it wasn't every winter because not all of them had those Arctic outbreaks we need for it just like 2011-2012 and it wasn't the coldest winters that produced those snow storms either. Its the mixture of the cold and wet winters I was talking about, the ones where are temperature's are in the low 30s allowing for there to be enough moisture because as we saw last year, it becomes too dry for huge snowstorms to occur when our temperatures get into the low 20s and teens.

That's the thing though, there isn't correlation. It's about timing for some places one way or another. There are also dry years like 2010-2011 that produces a lot of snow. You can make an argument one way or the other which then kind of defeats the purpose to trying to figure out which one will do what. There is a correlation on how deep systems get and their tracks. During El Nino's storms tends to deepen more because the NAO/AO becomes a good block to lower heights over Texas and the southeast. La Nina produces progressive flow and storms move fast and are weak.

Just like why does North Dakota get a lot of snow and is far away from any significant moisture sources? Lift up there is much stronger closer to PV anomalies and storms deepen much more than our neck of the woods and make lots of snow out of very little liquid.

[Janie2006]

In these parts. and along the Gulf Coast in particular, you have to have just the right conditions in place for a snow event. Last January's storm, for example, produced a lot less snow than was prognosticated for exactly the reasons Ntwx listed above. It's also the reason local WFOs are reluctant to go with a snow forecast, cos timing is everything.

There is a graveyard somewhere where many busted winter wx forecasts groan and lament the warm, overrunning Gulf moisture.

[weatherdude1108]

Courtesy of the Fort Worth NWS page on North Texas snow events, here it is:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows

"November 13-14, 1976: Widespread 4-6 inch snow fell over much of the northern and western sections of North Texas. The area covered was north of a line through Coleman, Hamilton, Fort Worth, Bonham, and Clarksville. Lampasas also reported 5 inches of snow with this event."

I was in San Antonio during this. Best day of my life!

January 12-13, 1985 While not a North Texas snow event, this one deserves mention. Snowfall above four inches fell over a large area of southwest and south central Texas, generally southwest of a line from Midland to Austin and north of a line from Eagle Pass to Gonzales. Between 8-14 inches fell from the Hill Country to San Antonio and as far south as Eagle Pass.

[Ntxw]

Both are great events lets get several of these this winter for all areas. Porta needs one.

[Ntxw]

November last year I posted this to start the month.

It's November! Finally!!! Awaiting that 0C isotherm to clear Texas.

While awaiting storm2k's return I put together some quick thoughts very plain and simple for winter. It's likely to be a +AO winter. This will mean a very cold arctic and likely less cold mid latitudes. Typically there will be a dominant somewhere in the far north that will send very cold air down. The past several years it has been the -NAO dominance which send much of it to Europe and adjacent Asia. The North Pacific has been very unfavorable for us either bottling it up in Alaska or Canada. The screaming Pac jet from the +EPO has given us mild Pacific air.

October is a critical month to forecasting winter. So using that ideology I'm going to say we will see our first -EPO in several years as it has been negative in reverse from the other signals. 93-94 is a good analog as well as 61-63 period. A couple of periods to look out for, of course the week leading to and after Christmas always usually brings us a chill. January I believe this year will favor the most cold and snow opportunities as opposed to the last two.

I think overall it was a great call. Timing of some individual periods was a little off but the indexes worked quite well. I used October as a strong set for looking ahead and it payed off. Lets see if this year works out as well. I'll try to do something like this early Nov.

[Ntxw]

Looks more and more likely this winter is going to be dominated by the -AO

[texas1836]

Looks more and more likely this winter is going to be dominated by the -AO

That's what I want to hear, along with loads of precipitation. Dominate, dominate, dominate.....

[Ntxw]

Looks more and more likely this winter is going to be dominated by the -AO

That's what I want to hear, along with loads of precipitation. Dominate, dominate, dominate.....

And with that, now is a good time to quote this post I made during the summer

Today lets discuss a little about the AO/NAO. We have learned that the EPO can be the driver of cold into the continent. So can the AO/NAO, both are an extension of the other and tend to follow one another. However there is more variability with these two indexes because if they aren't positioned correctly or if the EPO is not favorable they can actually send cold to Eurasia instead. The key here is in their negative phases the AO will unleash lower heights into the mid latitudes allowing the easy access to colder air. The NAO, if west based towards Greenland or Eastern Canada will block storms and create a clog into the pattern.

Caveat

*IF the Pacific is favorable and warm is not allowed towards the continent from that big Ocean then we can dam up and lock in place arctic air masses over the US with a -NAO bundling in some big storms. If you do not have a favorable EPO/WPO then you'll lock in warm air that is streaming in while cold is funneled to Europe.*

I took a composite of the top 4 (would be 5 but one of the years is not available in the dataset being pre-1948) patterns for snowfall at DFW. It's actually similar at other stations in Texas but they don't receive snowfall on a consistent basis to track but individually the years or patterns resemble.

500mb pattern

http://i57.tinypic.com/24wvchx.png

Pretty clear the -NAO/AO has significant say on snowfall patterns, it is to snow as the EPO is to cold. The EPO alone doesn't lower heights for colder air aloft, tends to be shallow. But with the help of a -NAO/AO you will get those lower heights. We'll be looking for signs of this index as well!


For fun, I pulled up what the pattern was like for Houston's big blizzard back in Feb of 1895. Indeed you see similar players.

http://i58.tinypic.com/293d5qd.gif

San Antonio's big 1985 storm, blocking here was centered more in central Canada but the -NAO/AO was prevalent

http://i57.tinypic.com/2evu79y.gif

[texas1836]

Looks more and more likely this winter is going to be dominated by the -AO

That's what I want to hear, along with loads of precipitation. Dominate, dominate, dominate.....

And with that, now is a good time to quote this post I made during the summer

Today lets discuss a little about the AO/NAO. We have learned that the EPO can be the driver of cold into the continent. So can the AO/NAO, both are an extension of the other and tend to follow one another. However there is more variability with these two indexes because if they aren't positioned correctly or if the EPO is not favorable they can actually send cold to Eurasia instead. The key here is in their negative phases the AO will unleash lower heights into the mid latitudes allowing the easy access to colder air. The NAO, if west based towards Greenland or Eastern Canada will block storms and create a clog into the pattern.

Caveat

*IF the Pacific is favorable and warm is not allowed towards the continent from that big Ocean then we can dam up and lock in place arctic air masses over the US with a -NAO bundling in some big storms. If you do not have a favorable EPO/WPO then you'll lock in warm air that is streaming in while cold is funneled to Europe.*

I took a composite of the top 4 (would be 5 but one of the years is not available in the dataset being pre-1948) patterns for snowfall at DFW. It's actually similar at other stations in Texas but they don't receive snowfall on a consistent basis to track but individually the years or patterns resemble.

500mb pattern

http://i57.tinypic.com/24wvchx.png

Pretty clear the -NAO/AO has significant say on snowfall patterns, it is to snow as the EPO is to cold. The EPO alone doesn't lower heights for colder air aloft, tends to be shallow. But with the help of a -NAO/AO you will get those lower heights. We'll be looking for signs of this index as well!


For fun, I pulled up what the pattern was like for Houston's big blizzard back in Feb of 1895. Indeed you see similar players.

http://i58.tinypic.com/293d5qd.gif

San Antonio's big 1985 storm, blocking here was centered more in central Canada but the -NAO/AO was prevalent

http://i57.tinypic.com/2evu79y.gif

This might be a daft question, but, what role would an El Nino have in this, or is it tied somehow to the EPO or WPO?

[Ntxw]

This might be a daft question, but, what role would an El Nino have in this, or is it tied somehow to the EPO or WPO?

El Nino provides the storm systems to take advantage of the lower height environments that gets stronger with the -AO. It provides ample moisture for strong systems to take advantage of from the subtropical jet.

[texas1836]

This might be a daft question, but, what role would an El Nino have in this, or is it tied somehow to the EPO or WPO?

El Nino provides the storm systems to take advantage of the lower height environments that gets stronger with the -AO. It provides ample moisture for strong systems to take advantage of from the subtropical jet.

Thanks for the info NTXW.

[Snowbeagle]

Looks more and more likely this winter is going to be dominated by the -AO

That's what I want to hear, along with loads of precipitation. Dominate, dominate, dominate.....

And with that, now is a good time to quote this post I made during the summer

Today lets discuss a little about the AO/NAO. We have learned that the EPO can be the driver of cold into the continent. So can the AO/NAO, both are an extension of the other and tend to follow one another. However there is more variability with these two indexes because if they aren't positioned correctly or if the EPO is not favorable they can actually send cold to Eurasia instead. The key here is in their negative phases the AO will unleash lower heights into the mid latitudes allowing the easy access to colder air. The NAO, if west based towards Greenland or Eastern Canada will block storms and create a clog into the pattern.

Caveat

*IF the Pacific is favorable and warm is not allowed towards the continent from that big Ocean then we can dam up and lock in place arctic air masses over the US with a -NAO bundling in some big storms. If you do not have a favorable EPO/WPO then you'll lock in warm air that is streaming in while cold is funneled to Europe.*

Is it starting to look like the EPO/WPO will be in support of a favorable AO/NAO to lock in arctic air over the US this winter? (is it too early to tell?)
I know the north-pacific warm pool is still going strong, but I haven't really noticed the EPO dominating like last year.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am expecting less continuous cold as I am not sure if the -EPO will hold quite as strong as last year, but with the -AO and weak El Nino I can easily foresee some good snow during the heart of winter. Last year was memorable because of the persistent cold. Hopefully this year will be memorable because of a couple epic snow storms.

[Ntxw]

Is it starting to look like the EPO/WPO will be in support of a favorable AO/NAO to lock in arctic air over the US this winter? (is it too early to tell?)
I know the north-pacific warm pool is still going strong, but I haven't really noticed the EPO dominating like last year.

The EPO has been mostly negative for Oct so far but not tank, WPO very negative. The EPO hasnt yet flexed its muscles. Euro long range is showing increases heights over Alaska this winter so I think it will work out. Not sure if it will be quite like last year, that was one of the strongest continuous EPO block on record but it should be enough. The AO is the dominating index thus far

It will be much stormier than last year