Texas Winter 2016-2017

[bubba hotep]

Last couple of runs of the GEFS show the +PNA pattern rapidly collapsing as we move towards early February. That can be a precursor to Pacific jet retraction and a big -EPO. Biggest difference b/w this potential -EPO and the two earlier ones that that the MJO is much more coherent and looks to be in Phase 6 around that time. MJO P6 would also seem to support the collapse of the PNA pattern during -ENSO:



What does the MJO do after that and how does that translate across the Pacific? I was pretty bullish on February but am a little uneasy after the MJO got kicked off.

[Ptarmigan]

-50s today in interior Alaska including fairbanks. Time to open the freezer door to counter wxman57's thermostat...

We just have to be patient until the last days of this month. I think this thread will be buzzing again by then. The processes in motion to deliver cold and snow working themselves out now.

I LOVE it when it's very cold in Alaska (in winter), as that always means it's warm here. Hope it stays cold there through March.

Bring down the cold from Alaska.

[TheProfessor]

The bigger storms end up on the east coast. The problem with hoping for a bigger storm is that you have to have it phased, and when you're further inland you have to hope that it doesn't transfer too early.

Look up the weather maps for 3/8/08. That's how it's done.

oh I already know about that date lol, it get's talked about a lot in the forums I visit for Ohio.

[wxman57]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the Southern Plains. Sure, the Great Lakes and Northeast are going to be a good bit colder later this month into early February.

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

[orangeblood]

Below are the 10 MB Level Temp forecast in the Northern Hemisphere

Day 1


Day 11


Very impressive Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event about to unfold, Rapid weakening and dislodging of the PV - Late Jan/Early Feb 2010 and 2011 SSW events look like the best matches to me atm

[bubba hotep]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the U.S.

I certainly agree with that and am not really expecting Feb to breakout of the current overall winter pattern. Probably one major -EPO driven cold dump and pray that a disturbance times up well. SPC isn't overly excited either...

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

The ugly reality of Texas climo starts working against us fast... Sad.

[Ntxw]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the Southern Plains. Sure, the Great Lakes and Northeast are going to be a good bit colder later this month into early February.

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

Fairbanks by this time next week will be well above normal. Possibly warming close to near freezing per Euro. mid to upper 20s from the GFS

[Ntxw]

Btw the CPC drier than normal winter forecast is under water (pun intended). Their seasonal forecast is highly reflective of the IRI ENSO clusters.

[Cuda17]

Has anybody heard anything else, regarding Jeff Lindner's Tuesday evening weather briefing, about the wind event that is supposed to take shape this coming Sunday?

[orangeblood]

Jan . 20-30th 2010 10 MB Upper Level Temps for comparison

[Ntxw]

Has anybody heard anything else, regarding Jeff Lindner's Tuesday evening weather briefing, about the wind event that is supposed to take shape this coming Sunday?

I have not heard anything, but Sunday afternoon the winds will switch northwest and be very blustery as 990s surface low pressure crosses Oklahoma. Tight gradient will likely be wind advisory criteria for some 20-30knots.

[Portastorm]

Has anybody heard anything else, regarding Jeff Lindner's Tuesday evening weather briefing, about the wind event that is supposed to take shape this coming Sunday?

The morning forecast discussion out of EWX addresses the wind situation about Sunday. The good news, at least for south central Texas, is that a High Wind Warning appears less likely now but Wind Advisory remains likely. I haven't been reading what Fort Worth has said so I don't know if they're tracking it closely for their CWA or not. With several days of west winds coming up to dry things out and at least a decent wind on Sunday, the threat for fires exists.

[Portastorm]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the Southern Plains. Sure, the Great Lakes and Northeast are going to be a good bit colder later this month into early February.

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

Ppfff ... we know your warm bias, sir.

I really want to know what your winter weather colleague is saying about February.

[srainhoutx]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the Southern Plains. Sure, the Great Lakes and Northeast are going to be a good bit colder later this month into early February.

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

Ppfff ... we know your warm bias, sir.

I really want to know what your winter weather colleague is saying about February.

I'm still waiting for that dry January forecast to verify... Meanwhile I have received almost 9 inches of rain during that supposedly dry January Monthly Forecast that was predicted.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Get this +PNA forecast out of here! I want at least one storm to go through colorado in about 10 days

[wxman57]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the Southern Plains. Sure, the Great Lakes and Northeast are going to be a good bit colder later this month into early February.

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

Ppfff ... we know your warm bias, sir.

I really want to know what your winter weather colleague is saying about February.

The cold-mongerer in the cubicle next to me (my friend of nearly 30 yrs) is saying winter will return in early February. However, he's relying heavily on the long-range model forecasts of SSW and a pattern change. I'm skeptical that the long-range models have it right. Sure, we may see temps closer to normal, but I'm not seeing any big return to winter weather across Texas - yet.

[wxman57]

Has anybody heard anything else, regarding Jeff Lindner's Tuesday evening weather briefing, about the wind event that is supposed to take shape this coming Sunday?

The ECMWF continues to forecast a large area of wind gusts 45-55 mph across southeast Texas on Sunday afternoon due to the strong pressure gradient southwest of the low center. Strongest winds are over southern Montgomery and NE Harris County, were speeds are forecast to near 60mph. See the EC wind forecast below for 3pm Sunday. I contoured every 2 mph.

[Ntxw]

Long-range models are indicating a potential light freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth and south nearly to Houston by the first week of February. I hope we all survive. While it is quite cold in Alaska, I'm still not seeing any indication that such cold will be moving southward into the Southern Plains. Sure, the Great Lakes and Northeast are going to be a good bit colder later this month into early February.

Looking at the climatological norms, Houston temps average 43/63 this week and rise to 44/64 by the 25th. Then comes a steady rise through June.

Ppfff ... we know your warm bias, sir.

I really want to know what your winter weather colleague is saying about February.

The cold-mongerer in the cubicle next to me (my friend of nearly 30 yrs) is saying winter will return in early February. However, he's relying heavily on the long-range model forecasts of SSW and a pattern change. I'm skeptical that the long-range models have it right. Sure, we may see temps closer to normal, but I'm not seeing any big return to winter weather across Texas - yet.

SSW would not occur until about 7-10 days from now. Reflecting AO should that happen won't propogate down until probably second week of Feb. Pacific changes will likely drive pattern until then

Timing of the SSW is pretty close to 2010, which from Jan 15th to Feb 5th was uneventful quite mild in fact back then.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I hope I haven't jinxed us all by cutting more firewood yesterday.

[wxman57]

I hope I haven't jinxed us all by cutting more firewood yesterday.

Nah, don't worry about it. The wood will keep for years and years. Maybe winter will return one year, you never know.