Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
newtotex
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:19 pm
Location: Denton, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#81 Postby newtotex » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:14 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:From the Old Farmers Almanac. Take it with a grain of salt. However, they did nail last winters outlook with a mild and dry forecast.
Image



I'm actually curious how accurate the Farmer's Almanac (which I guess is different than the OFA?) is?
0 likes   

User avatar
Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 544
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Petrolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#82 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:17 pm

newtotex wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:From the Old Farmers Almanac. Take it with a grain of salt. However, they did nail last winters outlook with a mild and dry forecast.
Image



I'm actually curious how accurate the Farmer's Almanac (which I guess is different than the OFA?) is?

Yea, there seems to be 2 different almanacs. The old farmers almanac says they have an 80% accuracy on their seasonal forecasts. Whether true or not, who knows. The regular farmers almanac called for "chilled to the bone and wet" last winter and we all know how that went.
2 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 8992
Age: 55
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#83 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:38 am

Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going. :wink:

Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?
1 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 31631
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#84 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:55 am

it looks like weak la nina is coming for the winter, may not be the worst pattern in the world
0 likes   
Brent

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#85 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:02 pm

Portastorm wrote:Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going. :wink:

Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?



All we need now is wxman57 to speak it into existence. Any idea when the next forecasted front is coming down?
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5208
Age: 52
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#86 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:04 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going. :wink:

Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?



All we need now is wxman57 to speak it into existence. Any idea when the next forecasted front is coming down?


Srain rain stated October.....maybe he will update his forecast on that...
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#87 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:05 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So if it does end being a Nina winter can we go ahead and post up the annual "Winter Cancel"? :cry:


You can go right ahead and leave this thread now. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Tammie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:49 am
Location: Denton, TX. I35E & i35W split

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#88 Postby Tammie » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:04 pm

0 likes   
Tammie - Denton TX

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#89 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:09 pm



Yeah, but wasn't there an El Nino bust forecast this year as well? All I need is wxman57 in here to make it so, and you can take all these La Nina posts out of here! :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 8992
Age: 55
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#90 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:47 pm

Nina ... schmeena. :lol:

While I would not be pleased about a lack of precipitation as a result of a Nina, it certainly doesn't preclude winter weather ... at least in my part of the state. There have been a number of wintry weather events during weak and moderate Nina winters. In fact, the last time it really snowed of any consequence in Austin was during a moderate Nina winter.

Like I was saying the other day, there are a lot of other indices to pay attention to besides ENSO values. AO, PDO, etc. Don't lose heart folks.
4 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5208
Age: 52
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#91 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:52 pm

[quote="Portastorm"]Nina ... schmeena. :lol:

You mock Ms.Nina Porta? Oh my goodness. The streak is still on sir...will the Royals spoil it sir. Will Astros catch fire again and catch the Indians. Stay tuned to the Porta Chronicles!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 13956
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#92 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:59 pm

Portastorm wrote:Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going. :wink:

Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?


That is a good pattern Porta! It is good to have troughs settle over us for cold air to pour into. Now we just need some high latitude blocking...

The past few years November has tipped us hints of what winter may be like. 2013 and 2014 had cold surges with threats of wintry weather followed by rather interesting winters. 2015 and 2016 have been warm Novembers and mild winters.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#93 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:44 am

Oh look I found a pic from the future. Here's wxman57 trying to commute to work on December 12th, 2017.

Image
7 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17324
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#94 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:46 am

SoupBone wrote:Oh look I found a pic from the future. Here's wxman57 trying to commute to work on December 12th, 2017.

http://thumbs.newschoolers.com/index.ph ... e=400x1000


That'll be the last time I ever try waxing my skis with superglue.
3 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 13956
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#95 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:04 am

The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 544
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Petrolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#96 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:45 am

Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.

Just on the basis of the past weather events on NOAA, 2008-2009 appears to be a pretty uneventful winter season. I could be 100% wrong as the NOAA page is my only source I'm using.
0 likes   

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2302
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Sugar Land, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#97 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:02 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.

Just on the basis of the past weather events on NOAA, 2008-2009 appears to be a pretty uneventful winter season. I could be 100% wrong as the NOAA page is my only source I'm using.


Houston had the earliest snowfall (at the time, only to be beaten the next year) at December 10th in 2008. :)
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#98 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:18 am

Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.


As long as the word cold is used in our discussions, I don't care if it's wet or dry.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 8992
Age: 55
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#99 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:30 am

Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.


At least for the Austin area, that winter got off to a fantastic start. We had three cold blasts in December alone and a small snowfall along with some freezing drizzle and sleet. But after 1/1/09, it was relatively warm and dry with no additional "winter" events.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#100 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:39 am

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.


At least for the Austin area, that winter got off to a fantastic start. We had three cold blasts in December alone and a small snowfall along with some freezing drizzle and sleet. But after 1/1/09, it was relatively warm and dry with no additional "winter" events.



I would prefer for Winter to continue through February, but honestly after New year's Day, I kind of don't mind milder temps. I have to have Christmas cold though, and preferably Thanksgiving.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests