Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#21 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:47 pm

Well, it has become obvious that the NWS mets at all of the WFOs in the potential threat areas have been sold on what the NAM had picked up on over 24 hours ago, and GFS later joined the NAM solution yesterday. I have liked the NAM's handling of this to this point. Should we get a significant snow event over the Deep South starting tomorrow, score a nice coup for the NAM
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#22 Postby Jag95 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:01 pm

The NAM nailed the sleet storm we had a couple of years ago from days out. It has its moments.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#23 Postby bella_may » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:23 pm

Interesting discussion from the mobile NWS.... trend is looking good http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#24 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:54 pm

Jag95 wrote:The NAM nailed the sleet storm we had a couple of years ago from days out. It has its moments.


The NAM is a good winter model. It does relatively decent with synoptic patterns and features during the winter months. I love to analyze it, especially in situations like what we have going on in the Deep South currently. It looks as if NAM will perform very well with this event. It is already snowing in South Texas, and the NAM had this modeled a few days ago. NAM is definitely looking to come up potentially big when this event is over by Saturday.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#25 Postby CajunMama » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:13 pm

Steve wrote:
CajunMama wrote:Lafayette Parish has already called off school for Friday. :roll: There’s a POSSIBILITY of wintery precip. NWS as of now only has our low at 35.


Why the eye roll? It can snow into the 40's and it can sleet (seen it myself) in the 50's.


As warm as the ground is they believe the roads are going to ice over. The school board here tends to over react. The smart thing to do is to do a 2-3 hour delay. I may be wrong..I have been wrong once before. When I said "I Do" at the altar. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#26 Postby Jag95 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:30 pm

It's beginning to look like chances of it getting this far east are not that great. I was hoping that we'd get a little bit more cooling over this way as my area is right on that bust line. After reading the NO discussion on their latest soundings I'm not getting my hopes up. It's been a really long time since we've had any accumulating snowfall in Mobile; the late 90's I believe.

You never know though. It was a situation just like this back in the 90s. Snowflakes mixed with rain all day until boom, 3 inches in an hour or two. I just took a last look at the intellicast radar and it's showing snow all the way from Baton Rouge to Meridian now. It will be interesting to see what this hour's reports will be from those stations.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#27 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:07 am

Colder air aloft is being infiltrated southward , and as the Western GOM shortwave organizes early Friday and pulls east, you will see dynamical cooling take place once the steadier precip returns and falls during the overnight and into the day Friday across Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and into Alabama. I think we arer already seeing the beginning of the changeover on radar, as you indicated in your post above Jag. I think we will see at least 1 to 3 inch snow totals in spots tomorrow. NAM was showing upwards to 5 inches, but 1-3 inches is reasonable. We have seen 1- 3 inches already in areas of South Texas.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#28 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:22 am

McComb, MS has now changed over to light snow this hour. Baton Rouge is now down to 37 degrees with rain at this hour. I think we will see snow in Baton Rouge in the next 2-3 hours, possibly sooner if the wet bulb effect is very quick.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#29 Postby bella_may » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:44 am

Yeah not so fast Jag I think we're finally starting to see some cooling
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#30 Postby Hammy » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:01 am

Light sleet is falling at the moment, though not staying frozen for long.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#31 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:06 am

Where are you located at?



Hammy wrote:Light sleet is falling at the moment, though not staying frozen for long.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#32 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:22 am

Getting sleet and wet, sloppy, half melted snow flakes. This is usually what happens right before it transitions to all snow, in my experience (which is very limited in this type of weather.)
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#33 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:38 am

More snow now than anything. It is so interesting to watch. You can see it in the street light. It will coming down pretty straight and fast and you know you have more sleet/rain and then all of the sudden it is like someone slowed down time and the snow falls so beautifully and slowly. Then it changes back. Very interesting to see something like this. Having said that, it can now change to ALL snow please. lol
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#34 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:00 am

We are all snow now in Baton Rouge and it is really coming down. Sticking to cars, mailboxes and even the grass. Roofs are all white. So beautiful and so rare. I can't possibly go to sleep. I'm just going to enjoy this and nap all day tomorrow.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#35 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:05 am

As I indicated earlier, I think the NAM has been spot on for this event. I think Baton Rouge and areas across Mississippi into Alabama will see 1-3 inches of snowfall with this event. NAM even showed a 5 inch projection near Meridian, MS yesterday. I hope you all enjoy this rare treat!!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#36 Postby bella_may » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:18 am

The radar is so beautiful. The snow line is much wider than I expected it to be and the folks from the mobile nws just said there's more moisture pumping in out of the southwest
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#37 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:24 am

Yes, I was noticing on radar that some really good bands were coming in from the Gulf. That could produce some nice snow totals if those hold together.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#38 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:35 am

In addition to the reinforcing cold air infiltrating
southward into the Deep South, a 1009 mb Frontal Low has developed in the Western GOM early this morning. The system actually is a bit stronger than what the NAM and GFS had earlier. This potent shortwave has hhelped to bring down that deep cold air aloft all the way to the coast. Currently is snowing all along the TX coastal bend and along east through Lake Charles, LA at this hour.

This may end up being quite a surprise and memorable snow event. when its all said and done. Some areas may indeed get in the 3-5 inch range , given the stronger than anticipated dynamics with our GOM disturbance.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#39 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:26 am

Hey BigB hope all is well. Awesome y'all are getting in on the action. Of course I'm in Alexandria so missing out on the heavy stuff. Actually we are getting in on the northern edge of it up accumulating on cars and grassy surfaces and still lightly falling, temp around 30. Hopefully it sticks around til I can get home later. Heard reports of thunder snow all around south BR, can you confirm that?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#40 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:18 am

I can confirm thundersnow. Sometime around 6 there was a very loud clap of thunder.

It is still snowing and everything is just beautiful. Our house has more than we got in 2008 but I know plenty of people in other places got lots more than this. For us, this is the most snow we have ever seen down here.
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