Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1181 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:02 pm

There is no change in the 18z run from the 12z run. It is still got freezing rain around Christmas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1182 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:07 pm

Yup big storm again on the 18z gfs looks like rain to ice then snow the day after Christmas long duration
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1183 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:15 pm

Brent wrote:Yup big storm again on the 18z gfs looks like rain to ice then snow the day after Christmas long duration
I will be out of town on Christmas Eve and Day. So I have to keep an eye on this forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1184 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:19 pm

Heavy snow into most of the metroplex on Christmas Eve night

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1185 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:42 pm

Hi bubba. I know the euro eps is further east with trough, but is there any chance it can shift west again? Mjo is supposed to move into different phases so I wasn't sure. What phases are good for us then?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1186 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:45 pm

One thing to keep in mind while looking at these 2-week forecasts of the GFS - the GFS didn't catch on to last week's snow event until about 48-60 hours before it happened. We may not have a good idea of what will happen until around the 22nd.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1187 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:One thing to keep in mind while looking at these 2-week forecasts of the GFS - the GFS didn't catch on to last week's snow event until about 48-60 hours before it happened. We may not have a good idea of what will happen until around the 22nd.


A wise heat miser once told me to look at the upper air pattern :lol:

I just want a frigid Christmas. Snow or sleet would just be lagniappe
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1188 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:16 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
wxman57 wrote:One thing to keep in mind while looking at these 2-week forecasts of the GFS - the GFS didn't catch on to last week's snow event until about 48-60 hours before it happened. We may not have a good idea of what will happen until around the 22nd.


A wise heat miser once told me to look at the upper air pattern :lol:

I just want a frigid Christmas. Snow or sleet would just be lagniappe


This pretty much

A storm is a fun idea but we know how fantasy land is. At least there seems to be some support for the idea and not just typical 300 hour gfs

I'm just optimistic in it being cold for now and we can figure out specifics later

And of course last event the gfs had in fantasy then lost it(remember when DFW wouldnt have a freeze? Lol) and still came back and happened so
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1189 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:29 pm

I wouldn't even worry about Christmas yet. There is yet still a fairly significant trough/vorticity coming through this weekend. Models are dry and not terribly cold but who knows...850mb temps once again are quite chilly. With low pressure in the n gulf bound to be some kind of mischief somewhere. Surface temps in the low 40s as the low passes by on the Euro.

Image

Models had a winter storm for this period some time ago, lost it for awhile and has quietly brought it back.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1190 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:41 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1191 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:I wouldn't even worry about Christmas yet. There is yet still a fairly significant trough/vorticity coming through this weekend. Models are dry and not terribly cold but who knows...850mb temps once again are quite chilly. With low pressure in the n gulf bound to be some kind of mischief somewhere. Surface temps in the low 40s as the low passes by on the Euro.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2ij4754.png

Models had a winter storm for this period some time ago, lost it for awhile and has quietly brought it back.


Was wondering about this there was talk today elsewhere of another snow event in alabama. Hopefully itll be a bit more northwest if there is something
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1192 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:11 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121018/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png


If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1193 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:24 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121018/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png


If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.



Yep, 580 ridge into Alaska with an eastern ridge ... wooo boy
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1194 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:38 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121018/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png


If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.


Yep, 580 ridge into Alaska with an eastern ridge ... wooo boy


That's close to the M word isnt it?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1195 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:43 pm

Brent wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.


Yep, 580 ridge into Alaska with an eastern ridge ... wooo boy


That's close to the M word isnt it?


Not a classic Mc Sig but close.

0z GFS running...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1196 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:46 pm

This run has the cold front passing thru at the exact same frame as the last 3 runs... so far not looking like much change temp wise
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1197 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:50 pm

No precip this run but that will change 10 Times between now and Christmas
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1198 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:56 pm

Temp output looks on the warm side given the upper air pattern

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1199 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:13 am

I'm a model run late, but I see that the Happy Hour GFS once again lives up to its moniker at the tail end of fantasy land.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1200 Postby Cerlin » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:41 am

6z again has a winter storm around the 25th. GFS has been pretty consistent in believing something will happen then.
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