Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

I'd caution again 300+ hour GFS on a small scale. However, ensembles are a good deal with some skill. GEFS and EPS have a poleward -EPO ridge. Mentioned a few days ago to start looking for big 1050+HP coming from the north on Guidance. Surely enough they are starting to show up. Such a pattern is cross polar flow with air coming out of the Arctic and even Siberia. The potential is there for a deep freeze type outbreak, assuming it plays out that way. At minimum a couple of strong arctic fronts down the plains so likely coldest air of the season yet.





So in short, keep looking for the models to see the big Alaskan ridge and surface high pressure domes. The storms will come as long as the arctic boundary is there but details likely change many times.

[Ntxw]

Not to say we will get 1983 type outbreak, but the major features you usually look for (when using McFarland's signature 500mb) there are several ways to get there. This being one of the ways with the omega block in Alaska, strong southerly low over and north of Hawaii. Massive North American bowl shaped trough with high pressure domes crossing over from Siberia via the Bering strait.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'd caution again 300+ hour GFS on a small scale. However, ensembles are a good deal with some skill. GEFS and EPS have a poleward -EPO ridge. Mentioned a few days ago to start looking for big 1050+HP coming from the north on Guidance. Surely enough they are starting to show up. Such a pattern is cross polar flow with air coming out of the Arctic and even Siberia. The potential is there for a deep freeze type outbreak, assuming it plays out that way. At minimum a couple of strong arctic fronts down the plains so likely coldest air of the season yet.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2zgsown.png

http://i64.tinypic.com/65vdhl.png

So in short, keep looking for the models to see the big Alaskan ridge and surface high pressure domes. The storms will come as long as the arctic boundary is there but details likely change many times.

That’s 7 out of the last 9 runs, and 6 in a row showing this upper air setup

[Tejas89]

DFW will tease a record high today. Some interesting stats on records since 2000...

- 85 of our record daily highs have been set since 2000, compared to 14 of the record lows.
- August and September combined account for a whopping 32 of the record highs, and 0 of the lows.
- DJF combined account for 24 of the highs, and 3 of the lows.

[orangeblood]

DFW will tease a record high today. Some interesting stats on records since 2000...

- 85 of our record daily highs have been set since 2000, compared to 14 of the record lows.
- August and September combined account for a whopping 32 of the record highs, and 0 of the lows.
- DJF combined account for 24 of the highs, and 3 of the lows.

Interesting and noteworthy re: Urban development but not sure if it tells us much about the overall climate though....considering there are 360 plus daily record highs/lows and records were not consistently observed from the exact same location under similar conditions - really difficult to quantify macro trends considering circumstances over time.

[EnnisTx]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/mo ... .us_sc.png

I'll take it! What a nice little surprise that would be...

[orangeblood]

Get ready ladies and gentlemen....the MJO hammer is about to drop, a swing through phase 8 this time of year is a welcomed Christmas gift for winter weather lovers!!! If that can continue into 1-2, we could extend this cold period well into January

[wxman57]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/mo ... .us_sc.png

I'll take it! What a nice little surprise that would be...

Careful with those pivotalweather snowfall graphics - they are created using the GFS but apparently only look at projected surface temperatures. The sub-freezing layer at the surface is only 1000-2000 feet thick. Above that is air that's well above freezing in the precip column. Therefore, the GFS is forecasting widespread freezing rain, not heavy snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z is showing an additional front at hour 168 coming through Texas. That was not there before...

Highs in the 50s instead of the upper 60s/70s early next week.

[EnnisTx]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/mo ... .us_sc.png

I'll take it! What a nice little surprise that would be...

Careful with those pivotalweather snowfall graphics - they are created using the GFS but apparently only look at projected surface temperatures. The sub-freezing layer at the surface is only 1000-2000 feet thick. Above that is air that's well above freezing in the precip column. Therefore, the GFS is forecasting widespread freezing rain, not heavy snow.

That's true and I definitely don't want something like a damaging ice storm!

[Ralph's Weather]

12z is showing an additional front at hour 168 coming through Texas. That was not there before...

Highs in the 50s instead of the upper 60s/70s early next week.

Noticed that front in recent runs. If it can phase with the SW low then that could be a set-up for a good winter storm otherwise some storms followed by colder temps.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z is showing an additional front at hour 168 coming through Texas. That was not there before...

Highs in the 50s instead of the upper 60s/70s early next week.

Noticed that front in recent runs. If it can phase with the SW low then that could be a set-up for a good winter storm otherwise some storms followed by colder temps.

It also sets the stage for colder Christmas Weekend temps, as opposed to going from the 70s to the 30s from Oklahoma southward.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111604
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...

Surface analysis this morning shows low pressure in the Plains
associated with a pretty strong short wave trough seen on water
vapor satellite imagery. We should have light west to southwest
winds today with mostly clear skies. Temperatures should reach the
low 70s this afternoon making for a very nice day across the
area.

Cold front associated with the low pressure in the Plains should
push through the area tonight into Tuesday morning with just a
wind shift. The colder airmass will allow for high temperatures
Tuesday in the low 60s.

Overall only changes to the forecast were for short term trends
in temperature, dewpoint and sky conditions which will mostly go
unnoticed since the forecast was on track to begin.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z keeps with the cold theme on Christmas Eve and Christmas and the days following...

That's 7 straight runs, and 8 out of the last 10 showing a big front around Christmas.

[Theepicman116]

The GFS give’eth


The GFS take’eth


There’s still a chance for snow on Christmas though. Christmas Eve to be exact

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't look at the precip frames until we are within 168 hours. The upper air pattern and accompanying cold is staying consistent. We will work out the precip details at a later date.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

EPO taaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank

[orangeblood]

This morning operational runs are having a really difficult time figuring out what to do with the S/Ws coming out of the Northern Pacific, Day 9-10. What happens with that energy in the Pacific Northwest will have huge implications on what type of storm, if any, occurs around Christmas in the southern plains. Just look at the GFS, Canadian and European runs for same time period....safe to say, still need to stick with the Ensembles this far out





GFS Ensemble Mean

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has deeper cold air across TX around Christmas, but very little precip. Perhaps by next Friday (not this week) it will start to get a clue.

[JDawg512]

Rainfall (let alone frozen precipitation) is non existent for the next 5 days, EWX is currently siding with the drier EURO model over the GFS beyond that.

Looks like the Dry Miser is having some fun this week...

Can't really complain about the temps though.