Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1221 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:58 pm

40s and rain Christmas on the 18z gfs then much colder the day after

The cold is pretty consistent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1222 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:40 pm

The cold signal is very clear for Christmas. As is a South Plains storm. We are still a week away from having any confidence on timing and temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1223 Postby orangeblood » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:51 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:The cold signal is very clear for Christmas. As is a South Plains storm. We are still a week away from having any confidence on timing and temps.


Cold outbreak seems likely, still unclear on a storm this far out...although, the ENS dragging lower heights back across southwest, day 10, does increase confidence of a storm as it kicks out
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1224 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:52 pm

Stepping aside from winter for a moment to address something that may become a problem down the road. We've had a dry Spring and Fall of 2017 for much of the southern plains. The double Nina, post hurricane landfall have been signs in the past for the formation of drought conditions. This is probably a good time to start getting yourself into mode of conserving water and planning for restrictions ahead of time to acclimate.

Image

The PDO remains positive (barely) so that may keep us from a long term drought. But short term drought conditions have begun and will likely worsen as ENSO will not be of much help the next 6 months or so at least. Tough words to say but it's definitely in the cards right now. In its infancy, it is mostly an atmospheric and environmental drought thus far, the lakes have not taken a hit yet but hydrology interests may be effected down the road.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1225 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:12 pm

Wow, I log in for some possible fun Christmas Cold (and hopefully snow) updates and get this dire outlook :(

Just giving you a hard time obviously. I too have been worried about the implications of this dry period. With a lake house that is impacted by water levels, this selfishly applies to me more than the average person that just thinks water is always there. Hopefully in addition to some fun winter weather we can also get some impactful rain, preferably really cold rain that transitions...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1226 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:40 pm

0z GFS at 240 hours(December 21st) is unloading the arctic down the plains... front dropping into Kansas

252 hours racing into OKC and the Panhandle is already cold -20 in North Dakota

Arctic front crashes through Texas at 288 hours, Dallas is near freezing on the afternoon of December 23rd.

A little wintry mix in the metro and rain to the south then the front sort of stops moving or something. Christmas Eve is near seasonal levels, then Christmas Day is very cold with temps crashing through the day
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1227 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:47 pm

Yeah 0z GFS is an arctic dump straight down the plains. Big trough vorticity yet to kick out in the west. Slight SE ridge to center it over us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1228 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:50 pm

Frozen precip breaks out Christmas Night into the day after this run
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1229 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 pm

As the run ends there is another large High coming into Montana... if it verified, that would be the motherload of arctic air leading into New Years
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1230 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:54 am

Euro has no sign of that 240 hour GFS arctic front it seems... much warmer in the Dakotas than the GFS

But it is the very end of the run

looking at the GEFS there's a clear signal for cold air and some precip around Christmas
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1231 Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:47 am

Geez I should know better after all of these years, but I’ve got to admit that these GFS runs around Christmas have got me excited. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1232 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:15 am

It appears we are setting stage for the La Nina trough pullback. The time of the eastern deep trough is coming to an end on the ensembles as cold air will be driven in the plains and rockies. The southeast ridge is popping up more and more while the Alaskan ridge is deepening on the ENS. OP should continue to trend that way. Christmas week may be cold in the front range and plains while potential torch in the southeast US

Image

Can't hold back the Nina for long east coasters.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1233 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:25 am

Perfect arctic outbreak for Texas. The 06z dumps even colder air on us for a longer period than the 12z
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1234 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:29 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It appears we are setting stage for the La Nina trough pullback. The time of the eastern deep trough is coming to an end on the ensembles as cold air will be driven in the plains and rockies. The southeast ridge is popping up more and more while the Alaskan ridge is deepening on the ENS. OP should continue to trend that way. Christmas week may be cold in the front range and plains while potential torch in the southeast US

http://i67.tinypic.com/ouuqtx.png

Can't hold back the Nina for long east coasters.


Perfect arctic outbreak for Texas. The 06z dumps even colder air on us for a longer period than the 12z


Between the boundary of warm and cold will likely see a barrage of various weather. Rain, ice, and snow in such a pattern from panhandle hooker type systems. They should dive down the great basin and bend up northeast (negative tilt) as the SE ridge is a block aloft. An axis from Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas northeastward could be the battle zone with northern side snow/ice storms potential in those tracks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1235 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:31 am

The second half of December sure does look active in the latest long-range model guidance. Since we've already had one snow event in south Texas, another one would just be icing on the cake!

But more importantly as Ntxw mentioned a few posts back, we need to keep the precip chances coming. I really don't want another 2011 summer next year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1236 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:38 am

Ntxw wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It appears we are setting stage for the La Nina trough pullback. The time of the eastern deep trough is coming to an end on the ensembles as cold air will be driven in the plains and rockies. The southeast ridge is popping up more and more while the Alaskan ridge is deepening on the ENS. OP should continue to trend that way. Christmas week may be cold in the front range and plains while potential torch in the southeast US

http://i67.tinypic.com/ouuqtx.png

Can't hold back the Nina for long east coasters.


Perfect arctic outbreak for Texas. The 06z dumps even colder air on us for a longer period than the 12z


Between the boundary of warm and cold will likely see a barrage of various weather. Rain, ice, and snow in such a pattern from panhandle hooker type systems. They should dive down the great basin and bend up northeast (negative tilt) as the SE ridge is a block aloft. An axis from Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas northeastward could be the battle zone with northern side snow/ice storms potential in those tracks.


Let’s see how much that SE ridge flexes. Usually arctic air masses win out. I could see a LA/MS boundary given how cold this airmass looks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1237 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:03 am

Keeping tabs... that’s TEN straight model runs showing cold and a southern storm.

11 of the last 13
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1238 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:06 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Keeping tabs... that’s TEN straight model runs showing cold and a southern storm.

11 of the last 13


We have the makings of a trend...:)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1239 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:26 am

What's it looking like for us south of San Antonio with Christmas time weather pattern?

BTW since I really haven't had time to be the weather geek I used to be, what's the best link for the weather models you all reference?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1240 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:28 am

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:What's it looking like for us south of San Antonio with Christmas time weather pattern?

BTW since I really haven't had time to be the weather geek I used to be, what's the best link for the weather models you all reference?



Tropical Tidbits
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