Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

Wow that was quite the run of the Euro. A large part of the state would see a white Christmas if that panned out.

[Portastorm]

I've been on this weather forum for 14 1/2 years now. Been following online computer models longer. I really cannot recall seeing this kind of model guidance so consistently and so extreme for a winter weather event (or series of events) for Texas. I mean ... this is historic stuff. I'm just in awe, to be honest.

[TheProfessor]

I'm all for snow(It would be quite hilarious if my biggest snow storm in the last few years came in Texas and not Ohio ) I wouldn't even mind sleet with snow on top. But I really don't want a redux of 2013.

[Ralph's Weather]

DFW euro meteogram has 13 inches of snow by Christmas morning

*drops mic*

Are you sure you are getting any work done, Brent? I am with you, sometimes it is hard to concentrate at work during times like this.

Its gonna be a long week

Yea, glad it is slow at work. Thankfully no one really wants to worry about selling property during the holidays because I will be pretty much out of commision work wise next week.

Can we lock in the 12Z Euro? I don't think mother nature will provide us with a better offer than that.

[sphelps8681]

Is there is a visual we can see?

[South Texas Storms]

I've been on this weather forum for 14 1/2 years now. Been following online computer models longer. I really cannot recall seeing this kind of model guidance so consistently and so extreme for a winter weather event (or series of events) for Texas. I mean ... this is historic stuff. I'm just in awe, to be honest.

Yeah Porta it's amazing to see. Kinda reminds me of the ridiculous amounts of rainfall the models kept showing for Harvey. It was hard to believe in the days leading up to the event, but it happened.

[rolldamntoad]

Joining in the chorus of those concerned about travel plans.

My wife and I (in southern Denton County) are supposed to head to my parents' (near Waco) the Friday before Christmas before joining my in laws in San Antonio for Christmas Day and Christmas Eve. I really dread seeing what I-35 could look like…

[Ralph's Weather]

Is there is a visual we can see?

In words, it shows 1.5-3" of liquid equivalent for the Christmas Eve system with falling temps along the I-20 corridor. This is just one model run for an event 9 days away so take it with a grain of salt, but maybe a larger than normal grain of salt than typical at this range.

[Portastorm]

I've been on this weather forum for 14 1/2 years now. Been following online computer models longer. I really cannot recall seeing this kind of model guidance so consistently and so extreme for a winter weather event (or series of events) for Texas. I mean ... this is historic stuff. I'm just in awe, to be honest.

Yeah Porta it's amazing to see. Kinda reminds me of the ridiculous amounts of rainfall the models kept showing for Harvey. It was hard to believe in the days leading up to the event, but it happened.

Yes, exactly! Good analogy.

Part of me thinks "oh, these model runs are way too extreme, this will never happen. I've never seen this happen before." And then the models pretty much keep churning out one run after another showing the same thing or something similar. I did think the same thing pre-Harvey. Heck, as it turned out, some of those pre-Harvey model runs ended up too conservative on rainfall totals. All of this to say that given the time of year we're talking about and the amount of travel which will be ongoing ... the potential for a show-stopping, headline-grabbing weather event is significant.

[sphelps8681]

Is there is a visual we can see?

In words, it shows 1.5-3" of liquid equivalent for the Christmas Eve system with falling temps along the I-20 corridor. This is just one model run for an event 9 days away so take it with a grain of salt, but maybe a larger than normal grain of salt than typical at this range.

Thanks.

[Ralph's Weather]

I've been on this weather forum for 14 1/2 years now. Been following online computer models longer. I really cannot recall seeing this kind of model guidance so consistently and so extreme for a winter weather event (or series of events) for Texas. I mean ... this is historic stuff. I'm just in awe, to be honest.

Yeah Porta it's amazing to see. Kinda reminds me of the ridiculous amounts of rainfall the models kept showing for Harvey. It was hard to believe in the days leading up to the event, but it happened.

Yes, exactly! Good analogy.

Part of me thinks "oh, these model runs are way too extreme, this will never happen. I've never seen this happen before." And then the models pretty much keep churning out one run after another showing the same thing or something similar. I did think the same thing pre-Harvey. Heck, as it turned out, some of those pre-Harvey model runs ended up too conservative on rainfall totals. All of this to say that given the time of year we're talking about and the amount of travel which will be ongoing ... the potential for a show-stopping, headline-grabbing weather event is significant.

I too am concerned that this is the winter version of Harvey for Texas. To have both of those event in one calendar year would be incredible as well as devastating for the state.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Control Run buries West Texas with Snow

[stormlover2013]

I am sure models will keep flip flopping

[weatherdude1108]

Joining in the chorus of those concerned about travel plans.

My wife and I (in southern Denton County) are supposed to head to my parents' (near Waco) the Friday before Christmas before joining my in laws in San Antonio for Christmas Day and Christmas Eve. I really dread seeing what I-35 could look like…

We're supposed to head down to San Antonio from Austin to see my parents on Christmas morning. I'm wondering what I will see at this point.

[Mr. Weather]

How is Houston looking to possibly pan out for all of this? I know its still a pretty good ways out.

[Brent]

12z euro snow map

[Ntxw]

Yes, the euro is extreme. That's what we've all been talking about on the upper bounds of this event.

[Ntxw]

And it's heavy snow, in the mid 20s near blizzard conditions from the run.

And on top of the fact the Euro hasn't kicked out the ULL yet so a secondary wave of precip is likely with the feature itself if it comes out but that is beyond the run.

[South Texas Storms]

I can't believe SA, Austin, and Houston might see 2 winter weather events within a few weeks of each other. Heck I was just hoping for one event this year.

[Ivanhater]

It's obvious. There will be a major storm on Christmas. Now it's just a matter of where in the south and in what form....