Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in these situations. I'm not aware of anywhere that I can get an ECMWF sounding as we can with the GFS. We get the full ECMWF package at work, but I don't think we can plot a sounding. However, I did promise that the DFW area would get its snow next, now that I let the rest of the state have snow last week. Would a foot be enough up there?

Again, this may more likely be a freezing rain and sleet event - quite a severe ice storm. Central to NE TX and southern Arkansas are under the gun. Not so much of a threat for SE TX this time, it appears. Still a week off, though.

[srainhoutx]

Careful with the GFS solution. It suggests the 850mb front stalls in the Brazos Valley near College Station/Lake Summerville. My experience is that dense shallow cold air drains right across the Balconies Escarpment all the way to the Gulf.

Would you take a stab at thinking freezing temps would make it down as far south as the RGV with such an airmass?

It's not out of the realm of possibilities.

[Theepicman116]

Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.

Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite

Most of the time. I hear the Heatmiser bites people when they try to go after the thermostat when he's in control of it.

[Ntxw]

18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in these situations. I'm not aware of anywhere that I can get an ECMWF sounding as we can with the GFS. We get the full ECMWF package at work, but I don't think we can plot a sounding. However, I did promise that the DFW area would get its snow next, now that I let the rest of the state have snow last week. Would a foot be enough up there?

Again, this may more likely be a freezing rain and sleet event - quite a severe ice storm. Central to NE TX and southern Arkansas are under the gun. Not so much of a threat for SE TX this time, it appears. Still a week off, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/18ZGFS.JPG

I checked the 850mb temps wxman57. Euro had 850mb temps well below 0C while GFS is above 0C thus the Euro map is likely snow while the GFS has the warm layer. Surface temps in DFW were in the mid 20s on the ECMWF at the same time.





850mb is a good layer to see if there is a warm nose.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

It’s crazy how we’re almost at 100 pages and winter hasn’t even officially started yet.

13-14 thread hit 501 pages. It got to page 100 on Dec 10 at 12:34. We're not too far off pace.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS Ensembles are showing heavier precipitation amounts across much of TX.

[SnowintheFalls]

Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.

Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite

I was guilty of lurking but this is worth joining the discussion! I have been enjoying the white stuff up in Wisconsin the past couple weeks but looks like I may bring some with me when I get back to Wichita Falls! I keep seeing the GFS keeping most of the precipitation south of the Red River. I know we are still way out, but is there something in the atmosphere keeping it away on the models? I know myself and Yukon Cornelius are from the same area and I'm sure he has the same thought.

[Ntxw]

Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.

Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite

I was guilty of lurking but this is worth joining the discussion! I have been enjoying the white stuff up in Wisconsin the past couple weeks but looks like I may bring some with me when I get back to Wichita Falls! I keep seeing the GFS keeping most of the precipitation south of the Red River. I know we are still way out, but is there something in the atmosphere keeping it away on the models? I know myself and Yukon Cornelius are from the same area and I'm sure he has the same thought.

It just depends on the movement of the cold air. We are all anticipating a very cold air mass thus why much of it is to the south. In reality, that is the one part that is most unsure of. Precip and qpf is low skill beyond 3-4 days. Both Euro and GFS move the low very slowly, impulses are shot off ahead of it bringing rounds of precipitation.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS Ensembles are showing heavier precipitation amounts across much of TX.

The means has 3-6" of liquid in far east and southeast Texas while a large area of 2"+ from just west of the I-35 corridor eastward. When you're talking inches in liquid in conjunction with freezing temperatures, it's a problem when major ice/snow events are pretty big with just a half inch. So it's not just the cold air, near record qpf for the time of year as well.

[starsfan65]

18z GFS Ensembles are showing heavier precipitation amounts across much of TX.

The means has 3-6" of liquid in far east and southeast Texas while a large area of 2"+ from just west of the I-35 corridor eastward. When you're talking inches in liquid in conjunction with freezing temperatures, it's a problem when major ice/snow events are pretty big with just a half inch. So it's not just the cold air, near record qpf for the time of year as well.

I rather have 6 inches of snow than a half inch of ice.

[Tireman4]

Although I hate to see freezing rain, (I will take snow and sleet anytime over that), we do need to rain. In a La Nina year, we need all we can get. Also, do not overlook this weekend's rain and storms. They could be interesting

[sphelps8681]

I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?

[starsfan65]

I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?

Cold weather is 1 of them.

[Cpv17]

I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?

I would air on the side of caution and not recommend anyone be on the roadways in the state of TX on Christmas Day. Could be a huge mess out there and it’s simply not worth taking a chance. Especially with the way it’s looking now.

[sphelps8681]

I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?

Cold weather is 1 of them.

Yes I do understand that it will be cold. I was more concerned if their trip would be to dangerous for them to take.

[sphelps8681]

I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?

I would air on the side of caution and not recommend anyone be on the roadways in the state of TX on Christmas Day. Could be a huge mess out there and it’s simply not worth taking a chance. Especially with the way it’s looking now.

Thank you. I will let them know. I was already telling them they were going in to a big mess if they went that way.

[Texas Snow]

Excellent Synopsis from NWS FWD:

The following discussion concerns weather beyond the 7 day
forecast period, but there is enormous interest in the weather
ahead of Christmas for travel (and those dreaming of a white
Christmas). Confidence remains low about the eventual fate of the
upper level pattern, particularly on how (or whether) the upper
level low develops at the base of the deepening upper trough. This
isn`t a situation where one model is consistently saying
something and we`re waiting to see if the others jump on board.
This is worse. All of the models keep saying something different
essentially each run and trading places with each other. What
that means is that there are probably 3 reasonable forecast
solutions:
1) The upper low never develops and the trough remains somewhat
progressive. This would result in a clear and cold forecast
outcome. 2) The upper low develops and sinks into the desert
southwest or Baja region. This would likely result in winter
weather somewhere in our region (not necessarily our CWA). 3) The
upper low develops and drops southwest into the Pacific ocean too
far to provide lift or moisture here. This forecast also would
result in little or no winter weather for our CWA with temps not
quite as cold as either of the first 2 scenarios.

Scenario 2 is the one that most of the guidance is showing today
and the one we`ve got a gut feeling may verify since upper lows
have been developing and dropping into that region for the last
week or so. However, the difference in the strength and exact
location of the upper low determine where, when, what and how much
winter precipitation fall and it`s just too early to get too
involved in those details.

What we can do is use climatology as a guide. This upper level
pattern with a closed low in that region can produce snow in
Texas, but snow is typically favored across the western half of
the state. In general it is too warm aloft here, and our CWA ends
up with freezing rain or sleet. This likely means that ice or
freezing rain around Dec 23rd are a higher probability than snow
and western areas are favored more than eastern areas. If that
low were to eject northeastward it would help cool the atmosphere
aloft and would increase the chances for snow on the 24th and
25th. Again given the wild model variability of late, we can`t say
that will occur with any confidence either. Finally to get some
percentage numbers based on ensemble guidance...half of the GEFS
members and a third of the ECMWF Ensemble members do show a winter
event in our CWA. Ensembles are underdispersive to true
probabilities so those probability chances don`t correlate
exactly. In any case this is going to bear watching.

So in summary:
1) Strong cold front arrives Thursday night.

2) Colder than normal weather for Dec 22nd to 25th is a near
certainty.

3) Precipitation behind the front is possible with probabilities
of some type of winter event somewhere in our CWA around 25%

4) It is much too soon to get into the details of what, where, and
how much...but Dec 23-25th is the window, ice/sleet may be
favored (at least initially) and western areas have a higher
chance than eastern areas.

TR.92

[sphelps8681]

I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?

Cold weather is 1 of them.

Yes I do understand that it will be cold. I was more concerned if their trip would be to dangerous for them to take.

I wonder why people don't want to ask questions. Hmmm!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont get excited about hurricanes hitting me 9 days out, not doing that with this system either!

On a serious note, wxman57 earlier today gave us all a warning to be prepared for something disruptive. He is a well respected met on here and when he gets serious about a threat (hurricane or winter) everyone stops to listen. Jokes aside, you just don't see him give such advice unless the threat was real.

There are circles beyond just the threads about fun and excitement as this is potentially a real problem for many travelers, many of our posters have made notice of plans. It's now more than just a curiosity, people will have to make decisions.

I agree. I posted this yesterday. The consistency has been quite palpable though. Impressive. Doesnt mean it will happen yet, but like i said earlier, i think something will happen, but im not getting too excited about the details yet. Would love for a winter storm, trust me!

I think with it being such a major travel holioday, great time for major weather outlets to start warning people of what models are showing whether they are wrong or not. Put the pride aside for sure. Could be epic.

[gpsnowman]

Cold weather is 1 of them.

Yes I do understand that it will be cold. I was more concerned if their trip would be to dangerous for them to take.

I wonder why people don't want to ask questions. Hmmm!!

People ask questions all the time on here and they are normally answered in time. I think what starsfan65 meant that in all of the chaos happening at the moment that cold air is a given, no question. What follows is anyone's guess, but preparations could be needed for many Texans in the coming days. Too hard to pinpoint exact locations of cold and precip simultaneously. Just have to wait and see. Hey we all get excited about winter weather and the current round is important because of the Christmas holiday, including myself. According to the latest maps, travel could become very treacherous for many people next week. Just have to stayed tuned.