Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro EPS D15 is locked and loaded with the mother of all Cold Air Outbreaks. When that starts moving up in time (if it doesn't fade) we could start to see individual ensemble members showing record breaking cold.

I was thinking about this when I saw the recent news articles of -89 F cold in Russia. Our setups have been bleeding across the arctic. This has epic potential. 1983 1899 potential. Knock on wood.

Yea, I'm not sure I have ever seen a D15 ensemble with such a cold look in our source region. February could be one for the record books. However, I will fight February if DFW has record cold and no snow!

[Brent]

I was thinking about this when I saw the recent news articles of -89 F cold in Russia. Our setups have been bleeding across the arctic. This has epic potential. 1983 1899 potential. Knock on wood.

Yea, I'm not sure I have ever seen a D15 ensemble with such a cold look in our source region. February could be one for the record books. However, I will fight February if DFW has record cold and no snow!

We better have snow if there's gonna be more cold

Thats all I gotta say

[TheProfessor]

I was thinking about this when I saw the recent news articles of -89 F cold in Russia. Our setups have been bleeding across the arctic. This has epic potential. 1983 1899 potential. Knock on wood.

Yea, I'm not sure I have ever seen a D15 ensemble with such a cold look in our source region. February could be one for the record books. However, I will fight February if DFW has record cold and no snow!

We better have snow if there's gonna be more cold

Thats all I gotta say

I agree, all my snow is going to melt, so if we're going to have temps as cold or colder, I'm hoping a new snow pack develops. The past few days haven't felt bad due to our nice snow pack. 0 degree temps with brown grass or mud is just plain ugly.

[TexasF6]

Any ground truth to the radar returns in Blanco and Western Travis Counties?

[Ralph's Weather]

12 here this morning. If we take another step or two down with future fronts then widespread sub zero readings are likely. That would be incredible.

[Tammie]

Michael Ventrice just posted this on Twitter. What does it mean?
"Red flag raised on medium range model guidance with regards to how they are handling what looks to be a massive anticyclonic wave break over the North Pacific across the Arctic Circle"
"I'm expecting increased volatility in both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models as they try to resolve this beast of a Blocking High"

[wxman57]

Having a heatwave in SW Houston. Blanket of low clouds slipped in overnight, capping the temperature at 30 deg. GFS & Euro indicate a break in winter over the next 10-15 days (no freezes). Winter returns the 2nd week of February, though.

[Texas Snow]

I finally get to uncover my Palm trees when I run home for lunch today. If this next cold blast is going to drop below 20 it sure as heck better snow to make all the work involved worth it. Twice in the last 2-3 weeks is a pain in the rear.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Michael Ventrice just posted this on Twitter. What does it mean?
"Red flag raised on medium range model guidance with regards to how they are handling what looks to be a massive anticyclonic wave break over the North Pacific across the Arctic Circle"
"I'm expecting increased volatility in both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models as they try to resolve this beast of a Blocking High"

It means we could be in for one hell of a February. Potential record cold....

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forecasted low was 19, its currently 13 at the house. Hopefully the cooler than forecasted trend continues into this weekend and we don't actually see 70 degrees.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Forecasted low was 19, its currently 13 at the house. Hopefully the cooler than forecasted trend continues into this weekend and we don't actually see 70 degrees.

Love the new signature... I will join in.

I was toasty playing football in the snow the other day with my 5 year old. Had on the Sitka gear head to toe.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forecasted low was 19, its currently 13 at the house. Hopefully the cooler than forecasted trend continues into this weekend and we don't actually see 70 degrees.

Love the new signature... I will join in.

I was toasty playing football in the snow the other day with my 5 year old. Had on the Sitka gear head to toe.

Yes! Team Never Summer. If you ever need new gear check out KUIU. Its made by the same guy the started Sitka before he sold it. Same, sometimes even better quality and half the price.

[srainhoutx]

Michael Ventrice just posted this on Twitter. What does it mean?
"Red flag raised on medium range model guidance with regards to how they are handling what looks to be a massive anticyclonic wave break over the North Pacific across the Arctic Circle"
"I'm expecting increased volatility in both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models as they try to resolve this beast of a Blocking High"

It means we could be in for one hell of a February. Potential record cold....

Ventrice is pointing out the day to day volatility via the Global Guidance as they attempt to resolve the huge blocking developing. I do agree that a return to much colder weather is likely around the February 6/7 timeframe but even the ensembles will have difficulty over the next week to 10 days resolving this pattern. Pay close attention across the N Pacific and follow any wave breaking and sudden buckling of the Polar Jet as storms move from Japan toward North America.

[CaptinCrunch]

12 here this morning. If we take another step or two down with future fronts then widespread sub zero readings are likely. That would be incredible.

it was 12 when I got up @ 530, but dropped to 10 by the time I left the house @ 715am

[weatherdude1108]

Having a heatwave in SW Houston. Blanket of low clouds slipped in overnight, capping the temperature at 30 deg. GFS & Euro indicate a break in winter over the next 10-15 days (no freezes). Winter returns the 2nd week of February, though.

My thermometer bottomed out at 30 at my place also around 6:45 (at least when I left for work). It may have gone lower(?). Original prediction was around 20. There was a blanket of clouds in my area, keeping temps in check.

[Ntxw]

To summarize what srain posted. Okhotsk low

[ThunderSleetDreams]

To summarize what srain posted. Okhotsk low

The insane curiosity that resides in me is poking me to book a flight to Moscow and hire a driver and native to escort me to Oymyakon, Siberia to see how our hunting apparel technology holds up in -90F. Oymyakon is the coldest human settlement on earth.

[orangeblood]

Michael Ventrice just posted this on Twitter. What does it mean?
"Red flag raised on medium range model guidance with regards to how they are handling what looks to be a massive anticyclonic wave break over the North Pacific across the Arctic Circle"
"I'm expecting increased volatility in both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models as they try to resolve this beast of a Blocking High"

He's referring to the huge positive anomaly being depicted below across the North Pacific in the 7-10 day range, which is the time frame we've been discussing for another possible southern plains winter storm. Any slight shift in position and/or magnitude will have big implications down stream in our part of the world. The good news is that the potential for another winter weather event for Texas is still on the table in the Jan. 26-28th time frame

[Rgv20]

Currently 33 with light mist in the air in Edinburg....

[losf1981]

the guy on oklahoma weather network is calling for a blizzard event for west texas into the oklahoma panhandle at the end of the month with the rest of the state getting rain. Of course the snow line stops just west of wichita falls.