Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Tireman4]

I know the January and February are usually the coldest months for south Texas, it’s been pretty cold since December. Missed to first real snow fall in San Antonio I was in New York. Had two more chances with the storm on New Years and this latest one but to no fruition. Can anyone tell me if we still have a good shot of a snow event not ice this time all the way south in San Antonio?

If anyone can answer your question with authority, then they should be going to Vegas and putting money down on the Super Bowl!

All we really know at this point is that another cold period, similar to what we have just gone through, appears more likely than not for the period around Feb 4-18. Forecasting the location and path of storm systems at this point is highly subjective and highly susceptible to flaws. Stay tuned!

Snow in San Antonio and Austin February 16th, Portastorm. Working on it...

While you are at it, can we (Houston Metro) have 1-3 inches of snow sir during that period. Thank ya. Love ya.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

If anyone can answer your question with authority, then they should be going to Vegas and putting money down on the Super Bowl!

All we really know at this point is that another cold period, similar to what we have just gone through, appears more likely than not for the period around Feb 4-18. Forecasting the location and path of storm systems at this point is highly subjective and highly susceptible to flaws. Stay tuned!

Snow in San Antonio and Austin February 16th, Portastorm. Working on it...

While you are at it, can we (Houston Metro) have 1-3 inches of snow sir during that period. Thank ya. Love ya.

Look if you’re going to swing for the fences and ask for Winter Weather down here, let’s shoot for 12-24 inches of white wet gold! The compromise may be 1-3.

[KatDaddy]

Might as well request another Valentines 20" Houston snowstorm which occurred in 1895 snowstorm while we are at it.

[gatorcane]

Well, well, the 12Z Euro bring back a potent arctic front in the long-range. Look how far south the 850MB 0C line is?

[Ntxw]

High pressure is on the plate again on the Euro and GFS. So is the +PNA. No matter how much model tries to run from it, it keeps coming back. The guidance's bias in the Alaska/EPO region has been poor this season. When time frame nears, the source region keeps delivering.

Just look at the problems the GFS has had in W Canada the past 10 runs. It's moving to another arctic outbreak +PNA



Might be another 1048-1050HP down the Rockies afoot

[wxman57]

While you are at it, can we (Houston Metro) have 1-3 inches of snow sir during that period. Thank ya. Love ya.

I think we've already reached our snow quota for the winter, Tireman4. Next priority is for the DFW area, and secondarily, more snow for Austin.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That's a pretty damn impressive setup.

[Tireman4]

While you are at it, can we (Houston Metro) have 1-3 inches of snow sir during that period. Thank ya. Love ya.

I think we've already reached our snow quota for the winter, Tireman4. Next priority is for the DFW area, and secondarily, more snow for Austin.

You know, we as the voting public, might not agree with you "Oh Lord of the Nation's Thermostat"...LOL

[gatorcane]

Wow JMA has gone MUCH colder also. That arctic air mass is plunging SE on the run:

[Ralph's Weather]

That's a pretty damn impressive setup.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DT6K4QkWsAEeBRb.jpg

I'll take my chances with that setup every time. --EPO, -AO with a Baja low on average for month would be awesome. Heck I'd take just a few days of that.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That's a pretty damn impressive setup.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DT6K4QkWsAEeBRb.jpg

I'll take my chances with that setup every time. --EPO, -AO with a Baja low on average for month would be awesome. Heck I'd take just a few days of that.

That map is my love language and I would love a month long set up like that.... or like you said, just 3-4 days.

[wxman57]

Well, well, the 12Z Euro bring back a potent arctic front in the long-range. Look how far south the 850MB 0C line is?

https://s13.postimg.org/mmqr7l13b/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

I don't see any Arctic front in the 12Z Euro (or the GFS & JMA, for that matter), just a Canadian front. Air is coming from SW Canada and the NW U.S. Temps in Houston into the low 30s with mid 20s up in the DFW area around the 29th. Same front that the GFS is pushing through Texas on the 28th. GFS is a tad warmer, though for the 29th - mid 30s both Houston & DFW. Neither model has any post-frontal precip (yet). Models won't indicate minor shortwaves so far out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well, well, the 12Z Euro bring back a potent arctic front in the long-range. Look how far south the 850MB 0C line is?

https://s13.postimg.org/mmqr7l13b/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

I don't see any Arctic front in the 12Z Euro (or the GFS & JMA, for that matter), just a Canadian front. Air is coming from SW Canada and the NW U.S. Temps in Houston into the low 30s with mid 20s up in the DFW area around the 29th. Same front that the GFS is pushing through Texas on the 28th. GFS is a tad warmer, though for the 29th - mid 30s both Houston & DFW. Neither model has any post-frontal precip (yet). Models won't indicate minor shortwaves so far out.

Yeah, I'm less concerned with the January 27th-28th front as I am with the setup for the second week of February onward.

[Ralph's Weather]

Well, well, the 12Z Euro bring back a potent arctic front in the long-range. Look how far south the 850MB 0C line is?

https://s13.postimg.org/mmqr7l13b/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

I don't see any Arctic front in the 12Z Euro (or the GFS & JMA, for that matter), just a Canadian front. Air is coming from SW Canada and the NW U.S. Temps in Houston into the low 30s with mid 20s up in the DFW area around the 29th. Same front that the GFS is pushing through Texas on the 28th. GFS is a tad warmer, though for the 29th - mid 30s both Houston & DFW. Neither model has any post-frontal precip (yet). Models won't indicate minor shortwaves so far out.

Similar to have the models have handled most of our Arctic outbreaks at this range so far this season. By next Teus or so we will have an idea on if this will be cold or very cold.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I know the January and February are usually the coldest months for south Texas, it’s been pretty cold since December. Missed to first real snow fall in San Antonio I was in New York. Had two more chances with the storm on New Years and this latest one but to no fruition. Can anyone tell me if we still have a good shot of a snow event not ice this time all the way south in San Antonio?

If anyone can answer your question with authority, then they should be going to Vegas and putting money down on the Super Bowl!

All we really know at this point is that another cold period, similar to what we have just gone through, appears more likely than not for the period around Feb 4-18. Forecasting the location and path of storm systems at this point is highly subjective and highly susceptible to flaws. Stay tuned!

Snow in San Antonio and Austin February 16th, Portastorm. Working on it...

Can you include Corpus and the RGV in that work order.

[perk]

While you are at it, can we (Houston Metro) have 1-3 inches of snow sir during that period. Thank ya. Love ya.

I think we've already reached our snow quota for the winter, Tireman4. Next priority is for the DFW area, and secondarily, more snow for Austin.

wxman57 speak for yourself i want as many snow events as i can get.

[losf1981]

at this point i'd take at least one decent snow event in Wichita Falls.

[Ntxw]

Connect the GOA and Arctic ridges you can get very cold. Dateline convection is a bonus. During modoki El Ninos convection tends to straddle close to the DL. So does East based Ninas it seems
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/954441183123722240

[Brent]

I just want one decent DFW snow(aka a couple inches). Not asking for anything we havent seen before

[Ntxw]

Interestingly our two warmest days (tomorrow and Sunday) will be accompanied by mostly cloudy and slight rain chances. That's been the call this winter, warm days have been overcast and dreary while some cold days are sunny.