Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

FWIW 12z EPS end of the run period to begin Feb is ridge off the west coast and east coast with mean trough From N-Central Canada down to Northern Mexico

[hamburgerman7070]

FWIW 12z EPS end of the run period to begin Feb is ridge off the west coast and east coast with mean trough From N-Central Canada down to Northern Mexico

Ntxw, isn't that a stormier pattern if it sets up? I've hear about the potential stratosphere warming also developing.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Interestingly our two warmest days (tomorrow and Sunday) will be accompanied by mostly cloudy and slight rain chances. That's been the call this winter, warm days have been overcast and dreary while some cold days are sunny.

The way it should be in Winter.

[Ntxw]

FWIW 12z EPS end of the run period to begin Feb is ridge off the west coast and east coast with mean trough From N-Central Canada down to Northern Mexico

Ntxw, isn't that a stormier pattern if it sets up? I've hear about the potential stratosphere warming also developing.

It's beneficial yes. You just need the arctic HP to come down and connect with the Pacific ridge. It's done that a few times this winter. Stormier? I'm not sure but colder. Strat warming looked better some days ago but no split forecasted at this time.

[wxman57]

Can you include Corpus and the RGV in that work order.

It was hard enough to get you some winter weather once down there. Don't be greedy.

[whitewolf124]

I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.

[Quixotic]

18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.

[Brent]

I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.

I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then

[gpsnowman]

18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.

Just meet in the middle. Austin gets a blizzard.

[Quixotic]

18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.

Just meet in the middle. Austin gets a blizzard.

Y’all gotta throw a little love North Texas’ way!

[gpsnowman]

18z GFS is a mess. Alternating from snow grazing OKC to snow all the way down to Monterrey.

Just meet in the middle. Austin gets a blizzard.

Y’all gotta throw a little love North Texas’ way!

I certainly agree. I live just a few miles from DFW airport in Irving. Definitely want the storm to nail Dallas. OKC and Monterrey are worlds apart so Austin might be in the crosshairs in future runs. Maybe meet in the middle this far out, but never in the bullseye this early.

[TheProfessor]

I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.

I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then

Idk about that. I don't think even the unluckiest winter lover(whoever they are) could prevent an EC storm with how well they've been doing the past few years.

[TheProfessor]

My beautiful snowpack! It's melting!!

[Brent]

I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.

I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then

Idk about that. I don't think even the unluckiest winter lover(whoever they are) could prevent an EC storm with how well they've been doing the past few years.

Lol we'll see I'm hoping to see real snow in NYC after Chicago could only muster up a patchy dusting. Certainly NYC has bigger potential but it could just as easily be warm and no snow

Luck has not been on my side that's for sure

[whitewolf124]

I just want one more snow event in San Antonio, the last snow event I was in New York and missed it.

I'm going to NYC next month I'm sure it will snow in Dallas then

I bet if you do it will snow in Dallas lol.

[gpsnowman]

Joe Bastardi this morning has several positive tweets regarding the second half of winter. Basically says look out for February and March with just as cold if not colder weather than what we have seen already.

[Portastorm]

Joe Bastardi this morning has several positive tweets regarding the second half of winter. Basically says look out for February and March with just as cold if not colder weather than what we have seen already.

I saw those as well, snowman. I am wondering if he still believes the heart of the coldest air will be further west this time than the period we just went through. He mentioned something like that a week or two ago. Would obviously bode well for us.

[gpsnowman]

Joe Bastardi this morning has several positive tweets regarding the second half of winter. Basically says look out for February and March with just as cold if not colder weather than what we have seen already.

I saw those as well, snowman. I am wondering if he still believes the heart of the coldest air will be further west this time than the period we just went through. He mentioned something like that a week or two ago. Would obviously bode well for us.

I think I saw that also. He is east coast intensive but he does tweet about Texas weather from time to time. He has a Texas connection if I remember correctly. He does mention the next two weeks will be the west's turn for winter before shifting east. One good thing about Texas centrally located position is we can get in on the action regardless of whether the cold is in the east or west.

[bubba hotep]

Phase 6/7/8 are all supportive of cold in Jan & Feb. Models have it going into 6 but will it continue to roll?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

Image above was hot linked, so it keeps updating, but it was only going out to P6 when posted. It has indeed continued to roll and now the models are showing it moving towards P8. Cold times ahead

[Ntxw]

Image above was hot linked, so it keeps updating, but it was only going out to P6 when posted. It has indeed continued to roll and now the models are showing it moving towards P8. Cold times ahead

This is very important and the 1978 analog (MJO wise) is still key! Obviously we are not seeing that kind of record persistent cold but it's working out nicely with tropical forcing (wetter that year thanks to El Nino). Feb 1978 went through P6-8 and had arguably the snowiest period on record! It is basically a mirror image MJO movement



The coldest temperature that year occurred in mid February for DFW. I suspect the same will happen this year

DFW Feb snowfall

Code: Select all

Snowiest
Rank   Snowfall   Year
1   13.5   1978
2   12.6   2010
3   7.5   1924
4   4.2   1951
5   4.0   2011
6   3.7   1975
7   3.6   1929
8   3.5   2002
9   3.1   1938
10   3.0   1903