Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Bubba, what is the main difference between wpo and epo in terms of potential cold weather? Does the wpo allow more cold air than epo?

-EPO centers the ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border while -WPO is centered more over western Akaka or the Being Sea.

The WPO to the EPO is Robin to Batman, Sonny to Cher, Robbie Robertson to ‘The Band’... it can help and supplement our cold via movement from Eurasia but it is not necessary for us to get cold.

[srainhoutx]

Not going to spend a great deal of time on the February Outlook the next few days, but I am seeing some interesting 'hints' at many levels that certainly could offer potential for much colder air arriving near February 7th or so. As we know our atmosphere is connected to so many different features at multiple levels and the features offer clues to what our sensible weather may bring in the long range. I continue to see the MJO inducing the strongest tropical forcing we have seen this winter in the Western Pacific as of today. The ECMWF suggests a move into Phase 7, possibly Phase 8 as we begin February. The Teleconnection Indices suggest a very negative WPO meaning a big Bering Sea/Arctic Circle Ridge and a tanking EPO (Alaska/Yukon Ridge) developing with the possibilities of a Greenland Blocking Ridge as well. Other features are trending toward the possibility of Stratospheric Warming as well as a possible split in the Polar Vortex which has been very stable so far the winter. That mean that all levels from the Stratosphere to the Troposphere may be working together in the days ahead. For those following the guidance, stick to the Ensembles the next week or so to look for signs of the upcoming pattern. Those will give a more realistic understanding of what the pattern may be capable of versus looking at the every 6 hour GFS and even every 12 hour ECMWF.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 36 this morning. Not too impressive but also not as warm as the past weekend’s mornings.

[orangeblood]

To continue what others have posted re: Early Feb period - Hints of a McFarland Signature are beginning to take shape on the ensembles, this could be much more favorable for the N/2 of the southern plains

[Ntxw]

Oh Canada!

GFS says Siberia dislodged to Canada by early next week

[CaptinCrunch]

All that Moisture and storms we had yesterday needs to be around for the next coming cold snap.

[orangeblood]

All that Moisture and storms we had yesterday needs to be around for the next coming cold snap.

Still concerned, given the SST Anomalies in the Pacific, that the ++PNA could rear its ugly head again once the arctic cold becomes available. We would be stuck in dry/northwest flow like late Dec 2017. The cold anomalies showing up in the Gulf of Alaska are very concerning, as this could bottle up most of the cold air across the Northern Tier into the northeast US

[CaptinCrunch]

Positive thinking only..... Just cold and snowy thoughts for February Orangeblood

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Lordy!

[Quixotic]

Grass fire in Parker County showing up on FWD radar......

[weatherdude1108]

Grass fire in Parker County showing up on FWD radar......

I have a feeling we are going to be seeing a lot more "Red Flag Warnings" this year, coming off of a Nina-Fall/Winter season.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Bubba, what is the main difference between wpo and epo in terms of potential cold weather? Does the wpo allow more cold air than epo?

-EPO centers the ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border while -WPO is centered more over western Akaka or the Being Sea.

The WPO to the EPO is Robin to Batman, Sonny to Cher, Robbie Robertson to ‘The Band’... it can help and supplement our cold via movement from Eurasia but it is not necessary for us to get cold.

Or Lennon to McCartney. Did I just start that fight?

[Yukon Cornelius]

That wind aint no joke up here in N TX today.

[Brent]

Grass fire in Parker County showing up on FWD radar......

I have a feeling we are going to be seeing a lot more "Red Flag Warnings" this year, coming off of a Nina-Fall/Winter season.

crazy to think we had snow a week ago and tornadoes last night and now this....

but I have a feeling you're right. Not surprised at the fire today given the dry air and howling winds

[weatherdude1108]

Grass fire in Parker County showing up on FWD radar......

I have a feeling we are going to be seeing a lot more "Red Flag Warnings" this year, coming off of a Nina-Fall/Winter season.

crazy to think we had snow a week ago and tornadoes last night and now this....

but I have a feeling you're right. Not surprised at the fire today given the dry air and howling winds

I know, right? Crazy Texas weather. It's hard to figure out what to where!lol

[Brent]

snows in Florida(again) on the 18z GFS in fantasy land

Cold but no snow for Texas

Worst of the cold looks east

[Yukon Cornelius]

snows in Florida(again) on the 18z GFS in fantasy land

Cold but no snow for Texas

Worst of the cold looks east

Wasn’t this coming up cold period suppose to be more west based?

[TheProfessor]

It really does suck for Texas that y'all can't take advantage of Clippers in NW flow. In Ohio if we miss out on the big snows then we hope for NW flow to get on the clipper train.

[Ntxw]

It really does suck for Texas that y'all can't take advantage of Clippers in NW flow. In Ohio if we miss out on the big snows then we hope for NW flow to get on the clipper train.

NW flow in Texas generally means downsloping from the high Rockies and high plains. Thats not good like in Ohio.

[South Texas Storms]

It really does suck for Texas that y'all can't take advantage of Clippers in NW flow. In Ohio if we miss out on the big snows then we hope for NW flow to get on the clipper train.

NW flow in Texas generally means downsloping from the high Rockies and high plains. Thats not good like in Ohio.

NW flow is awesome for Texas in the summer months though as it brings cooler temps and MCS activity. Any other time of the year it's generally not good for us.