Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8721 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:04 pm

Cerlin wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Getting back in about 4 from Florida (was here for the Daytona 500), do you think I’ll make it back before flight delays?


Not knowing where "in" is, I'll assume you mean the DFW area. Best chance for thunderstorms and delays is prior to 6pm, so you may see some delays. Squall line might not really get going until it's east of the DFW area, though. I watched the 500, didn't notice you in the crowd...

Sorry yeah, DFW, should’ve been clearer haha. And gotcha thanks for the heads up. It was a good race I sat at the very end of the grandstands.


Lol also landing around 4 for me too from NYC/Laguardia
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8722 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:30 pm

Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...A Flood Watch is in effect from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday evening for parts of North and Central Texas...

.Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected from
early Tuesday through late Wednesday. A Flood Watch has been
issued for areas along and east of a line from Sherman to Fort
Worth to Waco from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-144>148-159>161-200530-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.A.0001.180220T1200Z-180222T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Tarrant-
Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-
Bosque-Hill-Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Including the cities of Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris,
Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney,
Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,
East Tawakoni, Point, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis,
Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Clifton, Meridian,
Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham,
Palestine, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, and Groesbeck
319 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of north central Texas and northeast
Texas, including the following areas, in north central Texas,
Bosque, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Falls, Fannin,
Freestone, Grayson, Hill, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Limestone,
McLennan, Navarro, Rockwall, and Tarrant. In northeast Texas,
Anderson, Delta, Henderson, Hopkins, Lamar, Rains, and Van
Zandt.

* From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts of 6
inches.

* Flooding will be possible in low lying areas, creeks, rivers
and any other flood-prone areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy rain
which may lead to flooding of low lying areas. You should monitor
the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should Flood Warnings be issued for your
area.


:raincloud:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8723 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:58 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Man, it feels so gross outside. Low 60s and 90% humidity.

I am working on a project in my garage and the floor in there is all moist and dewy. Rather disgusting.

Yep, same here. I agree
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8724 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:02 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
338 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
A very active weather pattern through the short term forecast, with
first a chance of strong to severe storms tonight across the
northwest CWA and then a chance for locally heavy rainfall across a
good portion of the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. An
active sub-tropical branch of the jet stream will send multiple
disturbances through the region over the next 36 hours.

The first weak disturbance is currently generating a band of light
rain near the I-35 corridor, which continue to lift northeast through
the northern and eastern CWA through the remainder of the afternoon.
Forcing from a more potent upstream disturbance coming out of Mexico
and de-stabilization taking place along the Rio Grande, where
clearing has taken place, will generate convection across the higher
terrain of Mexico and the southern Edwards Plateau this evening.
Several HREF members, the HRRR, and TT WRF indicate a semi-organized
complex developing across the northwest CWA later this evening and
lifting northeast into the Hill Country overnight, as the convection
encounters a developing 40 kt low level jet and theta-e ridge. Deep
layer shear values of 50-60 kts, MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and
mid level lapse rates of around 6 deg C/km are supportive of some
strong to severe storms, mainly near and north of a Eagle Pass to
Medina, to Burnet line, where current SPC Marginal Day 1 risk is.
Main threats will be hail as well damaging straight-line winds,
should the convection become more organized. Can`t rule out a quick
1-2 inches of rainfall in some spots, but should be progressive
enough to limit potential for widespread flooding.

Farther east into the I-35 corridor, showers should be developing
beneath the inversion late in the night and into the Tuesday morning.
Can`t rule out some isolated elevated thunderstorms further east.
Majority of the guidances decays the semio-organized storms Tuesday
morning before reaching the I-35 corridor, however should note that
recent HRRR runs are trending closer to the I-35 corridor with the
convection. There could be some re-development of deeper convection
Tuesday afternoon across portions of the northern and eastern CWA.

TT WRF and GFS runs are indicating strong upward vertical motion then
developing late Tuesday night ahead of another impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Recent runs of both models are indicating
widespread convection developing out of Mexico into the southwest CWA
late Tuesday night and then into a broad low level convergence area,
ahead of a cold front, across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings are
favorable for locally heavy rainfall and training over some
locations. Forecast precipitable water values are forecast to be an
impressive 1.5-1.8" across central and eastern areas of the CWA,
which would be climatological maxes for this time of year.
Should
note that run to run consistency, as well as NAM12 and ECMWF, are
adding to some uncertainty in exact placement of heavier banding, but
in general ingredients are coming into place for the potential for
pockets of heavy rainfall somewhere across the eastern 2/3rds of the
CWA Tuesday night through Wendsday morning. We have included a
mention of locally heavy rainfall into the forecast and will continue
to advertise 1-3 inches with isolated pockets up to 5 inches,
although as mentioned the pockets are difficult to determine at this
time. Day 2 and Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from WPC continue
with a Slight Risk of exceeding flash flood guidance near and north
of I-10. A Flash Flood Watch could be considered tomorrow as forecast
confidence in placement of heavier banding increases.


&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The aforementioned cold front eventually works through the CWA during
the day on Wednesday and undercuts the deeper convection. However
good chances for post frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue behind the front into Wednesday afternoon with falling
temperatures. Much cooler on Thursday with continued chances for
showers. The front works back north as a warm front Thursday night
and Friday, with warmer temperatures expected on Friday. Another cold
front is expected to move through the area on Saturday providing a
quick chance of showers and slightly cooler temperatures over the
weekend.

&&
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8725 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:14 pm

looks like I'll be coming back in time for a flood :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8726 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:47 pm

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8727 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:56 pm

Rainfall prospects continue to look good in the medium range according to the CPC.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8728 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:54 pm

Model trends are not good for the western metro or northwestern metro. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in precip. 12k Nam is much better than 3k for us though.

Definitely a lot of rain coming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8729 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:02 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Model trends are not good for the western metro or northwestern metro. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in precip.
what does that mean?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8730 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:36 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Model trends are not good for the western metro or northwestern metro. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in precip.
what does that mean?


Looking like the heavier precip may fall east of the Metroplex. However, the GFS still indicates 1 to 1.5" in the DFW area Tue PM to Wed AM.

Meanwhile, got my 4th ride in 4 days today. Here's that bluebonnet I saw on the bike trail. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter weather chances for Texas in the coming weeks. Did my best. Spring is coming.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8731 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Model trends are not good for the western metro or northwestern metro. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in precip.
what does that mean?


Looking like the heavier precip may fall east of the Metroplex. However, the GFS still indicates 1 to 1.5" in the DFW area Tue PM to Wed AM.

Meanwhile, got my 4th ride in 4 days today. Here's that bluebonnet I saw on the bike trail. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter weather chances for Texas in the coming weeks. Did my best. Spring is coming.

http://wxman57.com/images/bluebonnet.jpg
DFW might miss the heaviest rain?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8732 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:51 pm

:uarrow: Heaviest rain will be in East Texas, but we should still see 1-3 inches in DFW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8733 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:10 pm

The GFS is an easter outlier and the Euro and EPS have been farther west with the axis of heaviest rain. Also, remember that there will be numerous rounds of rain over the next week. Chances will increase as you head east but it wouldn't be surprising at all to see 5-7" totals in the DFW area.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8734 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Model trends are not good for the western metro or northwestern metro. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in precip.
what does that mean?


Looking like the heavier precip may fall east of the Metroplex. However, the GFS still indicates 1 to 1.5" in the DFW area Tue PM to Wed AM.

Meanwhile, got my 4th ride in 4 days today. Here's that bluebonnet I saw on the bike trail. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter weather chances for Texas in the coming weeks. Did my best. Spring is coming.

http://wxman57.com/images/bluebonnet.jpg

Glad a me Met agrees with me. I love bluebonnets!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8735 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:37 pm

Awww yea! (Note: I'm too sick to even bother looking at soundings or anything and I'm sure this map is a fraud)

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8736 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:03 pm

If that map were to verify, to the 1/2 mile, I would take it in a heartbeat and say welcome summer! Sorry you aren't feeling well. Perhaps you should not look at the thermal profiles and just go to sleep dreaming of the winter wonderland that awaits you once you are feeling better...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8737 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:12 pm

the 3km NAM looks like flying into DFW will be an adventure tomorrow afternoon/evening :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8738 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:20 pm

TT has a major issue with its snow maps for the NAM. Not a frozen profile at all. Now for WF and SW OK it sure could get icy at least on elevated surfaces.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8739 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:23 pm

Its had the same issue all winter it seems
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8740 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:51 am

It doesn't even understand that this is a warm air advection routine.
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