Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

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weathaguyry
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#21 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:08 am

We got 12” on the dot out of Thursday’s storm, it cancelled schools for Thursday and Friday
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#22 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:22 pm

It reached 58 today with lots of rain, all of the snow has melted from last Thursday, however the GFS shows some small potentials for next week, while it is cold
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#23 Postby mitchell » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:52 am

I've been keep daily temperature records in southern Delaware (about 15 miles inland from the ocean) since 1996. The two week period from December 26 - January 9 was the coldest two week period we've had in the last 22 years. Basically, we had single digit (above) daily lows and 15-25 degree daily highs during that period. The -2 F. low temperature on January 6 is tied for the lowest temperature we've had in the last 22 years. SOLID cold snap. But we've had so many warm days this month, the month will end up about average.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#24 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:59 pm

The weather seems very volatile, which is typical of a La Nina I believe, it looks like we'll have snow changing to rain on Wednesday, maybe a few inches if everything falls into line
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#25 Postby Weather150 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:55 pm

This winter so far has been pretty up and down in terms of temps and there has been a lack of snow here in the Mid-Atlantic, minor events here and there. Pretty much your typical La-Nina winter here but somewhat cold.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#26 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:51 pm

It got really warm here, it was up to 58 at one point, also the NWS says we got 1.84 inches of rain
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#27 Postby mitchell » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:49 pm

Today on Delmarva blew me away. Low temp = 62 high temp = 79. I live way out in the country in the woods. Unreal to see a day with this kind of warmth in mid February. WAY warmer February day than I've seen here in the past 25 years.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#28 Postby Bizzles » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:10 am

Hold on to yer butts...

double nor'easter set-up, looks like we'll get out okay but NE is gonna get hammered again. Just saw video from the last storm where the waves were smashing over people's houses!

000
FXUS61 KPHI 050854
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across our region from the west for
today and tonight. Weakening low pressure is forecast to move
from Iowa to the southern Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley
on Tuesday. Another low is expected to develop along the North
Carolina coast on Tuesday night. The coastal low is anticipated
to strengthen rapidly as it moves northeastward, passing near
Cape Cod late on Wednesday night before reaching the Gulf of
Maine on Thursday. High pressure is forecast to gradually build
into our region from the west for Friday and Saturday. Low
pressure is expected to move from the Tennessee River Valley to
the Middle Atlantic coast on Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds are rotating back across NJ and ern PA as the deep storm
continues to swirl way out over the North Atlantic. A couple
snow showers are being picked up by radar near Sandy Hook and
near the shore of Ocean County. The ridge to the west has
weakened and allowed some of the moisture to retrograde back
over the area. It should be only a brief visit however, with the
high pressure expected to move across to the north today.
Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected and high temperatures
will be near normal with mid/upper 40s for highs in many areas.
Winds will remain a bit gusty today, with gusts over 20 mph at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The weakening ridge will crest over the area tonight. Clear
skies and light winds are expected. Lows will be around normal
with upper 20s and low 30s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Tuesday night into
Wednesday night for Berks County and the Poconos eastward into
northern New Jersey.

Tuesday...The day should start off quiet and dry as the high
shifts to the east of the area. Increasing cloudiness through
the day and a chance for light rain/snow for the afternoon into
the evening as a coastal low approaches the area from the south.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...A coastal low will develop
along the North Carolina coast on Tuesday night. As this system
starts to organize, it will make its way up through the Mid
Atlantic coastline and into New England by Wednesday night. The
low is currently forecast to strengthen as it moves quickly to
the north and east.

This storm does show similar qualities to the recent nor`easter
across our region but current model projections have the storm
weaker and much more progressive. However, this does not mean
the storm will be less impactful across the region.

Temperatures are going to play a huge role in the outcome of
this system and the proximity to the coast will be a driving
force. The further from the coast the storm stays, the more
cold air would be able to reach our area and keep a possible
snowier solution.

For now, kept the possibility of rain/snow through much of the
region with more snow from the I-95 corridor and points north
and west and more rain towards the coast and southern Delmarva.
The models are showing a great deal of moisture moving into the
region and rain could quickly turn to snow as intensity
increases and cold air gets drawn down towards the surface. The
potential for a good accumulating, wet snow is there.

This system looks to impact both the morning and evening
commutes so caution will be needed for travelers in our area.
Additionally, the winds will be gusty, possibly up to 40 mph
along the coast and 30 to 35 mph inland, which may bring some
wires, tree limbs or trees down, especially as the ground is
already wet (with limited drying occurring) and already damaged
trees may not be able to withstand much more wind. A heavy, wet
snow will also make this harder to shovel. One ray of light is
that this storm will be during the daytime hours so some melting
is likely to occur.

Thursday through Sunday...The storm moves further away from the
region on Thursday and the precipitation should come to an end.
Good northwest flow will allow for the possibility of some lake
effect snow showers making their way into our northwestern
areas on Thursday and Friday.

Another system will start to move towards our area late in the
weekend.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
night for PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
night for NJZ001-007>010.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450>455.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...O`Hara
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#29 Postby Bizzles » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:50 pm

Lots of really cool info in tonight's discussion:

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200104
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
904 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of back to back noreaster`s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
will merge into a single intense blockbuster storm off the mid
Atlantic coast by Wednesday afternoon and then head for Nantucket
Island early Thursday. High pressure builds in later Friday into
Saturday, then low pressure tracks nearby and probably to our south
Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Few changes needed. It was noted that the dew points across the
northern areas verified 5-10 degrees colder than earlier fcst.
The cold dry air will spread southward tonight and affect p-type
during the initial arrival of the deeper moisture. The 18Z
models were continuing to show varying solutions with the GFS
showing much less QPF that the earlier run (especially for Wed)
and the NAM showing more for Tue and less for Wed. It shows more
impacts for sleet/snow for Tue across the Delaware Valley. Few
changes to the previous fcst. A wind advisory has been issued
for SE NJ and Sussex county DE for Tuesday.

Earlier...

An absolute nightmare of a forecast today. Models have trended
north and wetter with the systems affecting our region beginning
late tonight and early tomorrow. Run-to-run discontinuity
appears to be the only forecast continuity with the operational
models for this event, which means that the forecast remains
unusually low confidence, even within 24 hours.

Tonight is basically all setup, as a potent midlevel vort max in
the central plains moves into the Ohio Valley tonight while an
upstream kicker shortwave trough digs rapidly southeastward into
the Mid-South by 12Z Tuesday. Attendant surface low with the
predecessor vort max should reach the central Appalachians by
12Z Tuesday. This will begin to weaken as a low regenerates near
the Carolina coast. Substantial isentropic ascent will begin
tonight in the southern CWA in advance of these features, but
it will have a tough time seeping northward, as high pressure in
Ontario will prove to be a stubborn obstacle for poleward
progression of warmer/moister air. Notably, models have
uniformly underestimated the dry air at the surface today in the
northern CWA. As such, once isentropic lift proves sufficient
for precipitation production in the southern CWA late tonight, I
slowed the progress of higher PoPs northward considerably.
Basically, this means I kept anything above low- chance PoPs
confined to MD/DE during the overnight period.

Temperatures will mostly be warm enough for rain at onset,
though temperatures will approach or drop below freezing near
sunrise near the Mason-Dixon Line, so chances for sleet/snow
mixing in become higher by this point.

Speaking of temperatures, used a blend of 2-m operation model
temperatures (strong weighting) and colder statistical guidance
(weak weighting).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The forecasting nightmare begins in earnest for Tuesday. The 12Z
guidance has shifted northward and is much wetter, and this led
to numerous changes to the forecast.

The setup is very complex. The vort max in the Ohio Valley
pivots northward and weakens while the kicker southern stream
vort max pushes eastward rapidly on Tuesday. This leads to the
development of a second low near the coast during the day as the
first coastal low weakens/becomes absorbed the intensification
of the second. Prolonged east/southeast near-surface low will
lead to considerable isentropic ascent in the Mid-Atlantic, and
precipitation will be maintained through the day in much of the
area (making very slow progress northward).

The 12Z NAM is probably a worst-case scenario, with a veritable
sleet storm for locations along/near the I-76 corridor. This is
suggested by other guidance as well (NAM Nest and 12Z HRRR-X,
for starters), though the GFS and RGEM are slightly less
aggressive. Then there is the CMC, which looks snowier but
potentially just as impactful. With concerns regarding residual
dry air to the north, could not justify issuing an advisory
along/north of I-195. Meanwhile, surface temperatures may prove
too warm close to the coast, so kept coastal and near-coastal
NJ zones out of the winter weather advisory. However, did issue
a winter weather advisory for southeast PA, northeast MD, New
Castle County in DE, and central/southwest NJ, where a mixture
of snow, sleet, rain, and maybe even some freezing rain is
likely. Accumulations will be limited by diurnal heating/sun
angle and by inevitable mixing with rain/sleet. Nevertheless,
the possibility of travel impacts exists, especially if the more
aggressive models verify. Expansion of the advisory is possible
should temperatures prove to be colder and/or the dry air
retreats northward more readily than expected. QPF in the
advisory looks to be around a half inch

Rain should persist to the south, with QPF around an inch during
the day south of the wintry mix axis. It will also be windy as
the surface low intensifies, especially near the coast. Hoisted
a wind advisory for Sussex County, DE, Cape May County, NJ, and
coastal Atlantic County, NJ.

Temp forecast is weighted to the colder guidance, with low
confidence in general given the substantial variability in model
output.

It is absolutely critical in messaging for this event to
emphasize the uncertainty. It will not take much near-surface
warming for the precipitation to be mostly rain in the advisory
area tomorrow (i.e., a forecast "bust"). Then again, colder air
with more intense precipitation rates spell potential big
trouble for the afternoon/evening commute, with (more)
accumulating snow/sleet possible. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts this evening and overnight with this very complex and
rapidly evolving first phase of the storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow and ice maps you see on our Monday afternoon web site posts
are an attempt at a ballpark figure for a set of model guidance
that still has variability. Its for the entire period...start to
finish of the storm. It will be adjusted on the following
shifts. I could see it too high I95 east and too low to the
northwest. Just dont know for sure. Ptype and amts will play a
role.

Dangerous winter storm promises to produce major winter impacts for
our forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday evening. Wind
driven sleet/freezing rain and wet snow becomes drier from
north to south late Wednesday, but too late to forestall what
may be the most power outages from any event in our forecast
area this March. Ice loads (hopefully sleet, harder to remove
from pavement but less of a tree/wire load) starts this event
out south of I-78, with precipitation changing to wet snow in
that area Wednesday morning. Six inches of 32-33F is my own
trigger for empirically derived notable power outage increase.
We`ll try to use some minimal snow loads as a predictor late
this afternoon in a social media post toward 6 PM. The primary
threat region for this is not determined as of yet and may not
be finalized til we see what happens Tuesday. For now with
think south of I-78 and especially Wednesday afternoon-evening.

To add insult to injury an Alberta clipper may add more wintry
precipitation on top of the Tue-Wed excessive precipitation.

The long term was split today at 00z/Friday with ability to
concentrate on the two storms. his was a collaborated model blend
for a dangerous multifaceted winter storm that could leave some
folks with out power for quite a few days, and potentially
nearly impassable roads during the height of storm Wednesday
afternoon- evening, especially elevations where nearly 3 inch
per snow fall rates occur. Still tbd but confidence is high for
big banding.


Long Term Hazards: Complex. We needed to capture the front end
on Tuesday with a WXA where a warm above freezing layer aloft
precludes much snow but mdt to heavy sleet may occur. The watch
for Tuesday night and Wednesday looks to cover more of ice to
heavy wet snow scenario as the low develops vertically and
intensifies rapidly off the NJ-DE coast.

Coastal flood watch was issued and covers the primary tide flooding
threat. There will be flooding but we dont know yet to what degree.

HIGH WIND Watch late Tue night-Wed morning for S DE (Sussex
County) through Cape May County forsaken because of the WSWatch
taking care of the high wind threat which is marginal.

Tue night...Windy with sleet possibly mixes in during lighter
pcpn rates to at least I78 then every body goes to ocnl heavy
snow and blowing snow on Wednesday, collapsing eastward to the
coasts.

Wednesday and Wednesday evening...The big snowfall part of the storm
for everyone! Windy (north gusty 20-30 MPH except higher coast) and
turning slightly colder and drier by late in the day with 1-3"/hr
snowfall rates possible, especially midday-aftn. As per the mid
shift a high late March sun angle and marginally cold surface
temperatures (especially I-95, S/E) may make it very difficult for
snow to accumulate effectively during the day time except when the
rates are moderate to heavy, which at a minimum means slush I95
sewd. AT 5PM added sleet to the grids I78 Tue night and S+
almost everywhere Wed aftn.

Late Wednesday night...Clearing and brisk. Northwest winds gusty 20-
25 MPH. Temps 5 to 10F below normal with wind.

Thursday...Partly sunny and brisk. Northwest winds gusty 20-25 MPH.
Temps 5 to 10F below normal with wind.

Below prepared by Lance Franck


Thursday Night through Saturday...

Fair weather is expected with temperatures at or below normal.
Northwest winds will be gusty at times.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The mid-level large scale features include additional energy digging
into the western conus trough, which amplifies a downstream ridge
over the central conus, while high latitude blocking invof the Davis
Strait slowly breaks down. This all influences the placement and
amplitude of the trough across the Northeast conus and Southeast
Canada, and the shortwave disturbances moving through this feature.
In particular, there is alot of uncertainty regrading the placement
and amplitude of the central conus ridge, with even an apparent
omega or rex block appearance, depending on the model solution. This
all leads to a considerable amount of spread in the deterministic and
ensemble solutions regarding low pressure tracking from the Great
Planes on Saturday, with the potential for redevelopment off the Mid-
Atlantic coast on Sunday and into Monday.

Some solutions favor a slower and more suppressed track, which would
have less of an impact on our region, while others suggest a track
across our region, which would obviously have a significant impact.
But there is just too much dispersion in the solutions at this point
to lock onto any one in particular. What we can say is that there is
the potential for another impactful storm system this weekend. Some
of these impacts could include wintry precipitation and coastal
flooding. Depending on the just how impactful the storm system
Tuesday into Wednesday of this week is (e.g., heavy wet snow impacts
to trees, powerlines, and the extent of power outages), it`s
important to keep in mind that any potential storm this weekend
could inhibit those recovery efforts.

Looking ahead to Monday, the pattern is favoring a return to fair
weather with temperatures at or above average.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with increasing cloudiness. Northeast winds
around 10 kts. A wintry mix may move into areas south/west of
ILG/MIV by 12Z. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Prolonged sub-VFR likely PHL/PNE/ILG/MIV/ACY with a
wintry mix of precipitation, but VFR may persist at RDG/ABE/TTN
through the morning before CIG/VSBY restrictions increase (with
precipitation taking much longer to commence at these terminals).
Precipitation type forecast is very low confidence, with
potential for prolonged snow or sleet, a mixture of snow, sleet,
and even some freezing rain, or if temperatures warm enough,
transition to rain (especially at MIV/ACY). However, some
potential exists for substantial winter weather impacts. Overall
confidence is low.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday night...Variable IFR conds Tuesday night in sleet/freezing
rain (snow/sleet KRDG/KABE-KTTN) with ne-n wind gusts 20-30 kt
except possible gusts 40kt KACY. Confidence: Above average.

Wednesday...Variable IFR/LIFR conds in sleet/snow changing to ocnl
heavy snow with possible 1-4"/hr snowfall rates midday-aftn. N wind
gust 20-30 kt except possible gusts near 40 KACY. Confidence: Above
average.

Wednesday night...Variable IFR/LIFR conds in snow with possible
leftover 1-2"/hr snowfall rates through about 03z/22 then rapid
improvement to MVFR or VFR CIGS late with nw wind gusts 20-25
kt. Confidence: Above average.

Thursday...VFR. NW winds gradually relax with gusts 20-25 kt and
sct-bkn clouds aoa 3500 ft. Well above average confidence.

Thursday Night - Saturday...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kts,
with gusts up to around 20 kts Thu Night into Fri. Above
average confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate on the waters during the
next 24 hours, with small-craft advisory conditions expected
everywhere by daybreak. Winds will reach gale-force quickly from
south to north on Tuesday, and storm-force by late in the day.
Seas will build rapidly during the period as well, reaching 8-15
feet by late afternoon (3-7 feet on Delaware Bay).

Rain is likely, with visibility restrictions to be expected on
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Intermittent storm force conditions
most of the Atlantic coastal waters and lower De Bay with a ne
wind Tuesday night turning north Wednesday. Intermittent gale
conditions on upper DE Bay, especially lower De Bay.

Wednesday night...Northwest flow with winds and seas slowly
subsiding to Gale and then possibly SCA by Thursday daybreak.

Thursday...SCA northwest flow.

Thursday Night - Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Poor drainage flood potential Tuesday with 1 to 1.5 inches of
rainfall possible parts of the Delmarva.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another coastal storm will bring a new round of tidal flooding to
coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware. The high tide cycles of
concern are those on Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The astronomical tides with the daytime high tide are about a half
foot lower than those with the nighttime high tides.

We will favor the more robust ETSS guidance based on the model
trends toward increasing the impacts associated with this storm.

An onshore flow will begin to develop tonight and it should
strengthen on Tuesday. The surge is expected to build around 1.0 to
1.5 feet from Long Beach Island northward to Sandy Hook, and around
1.5 to 2.0 feet from the Atlantic City area southward to the
Delaware Beaches for Tuesday night`s high tide. Minor flooding
should begin from Atlantic City southward at that time.

The surge for the Wednesday high tide is forecast to be in the 2.5
to 3.0 foot range. It is expected to produce widesperad minor
flooding from Long Beach Island northward, and moderate flooding for
coastal areas to the south.

The wind should transition from northeast to north on Wednesday
night. However, water is expected to remain trapped along our coast
and we are anticipating another round of surge levels in the 2.5 to
3.0 foot range. Moderate flooding is expected along the entire coast
of New Jersey and Delaware with one exception. Areas up around Sandy
Hook may remain at the upper end of the minor range. Also, minor
flooding should work its way up Delaware Bay into the tidal Delaware
River.

At this point, no tidal flooding is anticipated for the upper eastern
shore of Chesapeake Bay.

Based on our forecast, we will issue a Coastal Flood Watch at this
this time for the coastal counties of New Jersey and Delaware. It
will be in effect from 8:00 PM Tuesday until 6:00 AM Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Prepared by Lance Franck

Daily Record Snowfall

Site 3/20 3/21 3/22
---- ---- ---- ----
PHL 9.6" (1958) 4.7" (1932) 3.0" (1914)
ACY 5.0" (1914) 5.9" (1889) 2.4" (1964)
ILG 10.3" (1958) 5.4" (1964) 3.0" (1943)
ABE 16.5" (1958) 4.3" (1964) 2.6" (1992)

Snowfall as of (3/18/18)

Site March `18 Rank Since 7/1 Rank
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
PHL 7.6" 26 22.2" 56
ACY 3.5" 17 28.0" 13
ILG 6.1" 24 19.9" 48
ABE 7.5" 26 32.8" 39

Daily Record Rainfall

Site 3/20 3/21 3/22
---- ---- ---- ----
PHL 1.76" (1958) 2.24" (2000) 1.90" (1977)
ACY 2.56" (1958) 1.98" (2000) 1.54" (1903)
ILG 1.99" (1913) 3.21" (2000) 2.22" (1977)
ABE 2.12" (1958) 1.42" (1983) 2.49" (1977)
RDG 3.03" (1958) 1.57" (1890) 2.70" (2000)
TTN 1.74" (1958) 2.02" (1980) 2.25" (1977)
GED 2.12" (1975) 1.94" (2001) 1.20" (1964)
MPO 2.13" (1975) 1.28" (1950) 2.74" (1980)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for PAZ054-055-061-062-070-071-101-102-104-105.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
PAZ070-071-101-102-104.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for PAZ060-103-106.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for NJZ001-007>010-012-016>019.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NJZ020>027.
Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late
Wednesday night for NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ023>025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ016>019.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NJZ013-015.
DE...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for DEZ001.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for DEZ002>004.
Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late
Wednesday night for DEZ002>004.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ003-004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
DEZ001.
MD...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for MDZ008-012.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for MDZ015-019-020.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
MDZ008-012.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ431-451>455.
Storm Warning from midnight Tuesday night to 7 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ450.
Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ430.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...CMS/PO
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...CMS/Drag/Franck
Marine...CMS/Drag/Franck
Hydrology...
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Iovino
Climate...
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#30 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:33 pm

I got 13.6 inches over here of insanely heavy snow, 8 of which that fell between 8PM and 12AM last night, definitely could've pushed 18 if all the snow stuck from the day! After this, I'm officially done with the cold. It's March 22nd and there's 6 inches of snow on the ground. It looks like there may be some warmth next week around Wednesday/Thursday, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#31 Postby Weather150 » Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:47 pm

I got about 6 inches here from the late season snowstorm here in the Mid-Atlantic a couple days ago, I'm pretty satisfied.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#32 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:03 pm

Enough with this winter! :grr:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
020900-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0014.180402T0600Z-180402T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
401 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
are expected, and amounts of 6 inches are possible in the
higher elevations of northeast New Jersey.

* WHERE...Northeast New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern
Connecticut.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
reduced visibilities, including during the morning commute on
Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Check
local Department of Transportation information services for the
latest road conditions.

&&

$$

Goodman
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#33 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:51 am

I got 6.3" over here from this, and now there might be something else next weekend!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#34 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:03 am

:uarrow:

12Z GFS rolling in now. It sure looks like a potential decent cold air damming scenario across the Carolinas this upcoming weekend, or possibly portions of Mid-Atlantic as well.. We may have to dust off the Deep South Winter weather thread amazingly lol....

This potentially could have been a classic wedge event if the parent High Pressure was a bit stronger than what this 12Z and past runs have shown. The High is being forecast to be around 1022 mb over the Central Appalachians by 12Z Sunday. Nevertheless, this is still potentially impressive to have this set-up for early April for sure! :cold:

There will continue to be some changes to the upcoming runs, so everyone living in the Piedmont of the Carolinas and locales into Virginia would be wise to keep an eye on this system for this weekend.


EDIT: 12Z GFS forecasting 7 inch snowfall accumulation for extreme northern tier of the Piedmont of North Carolina into Southern Virginia by this 12Z Sunday morning. Some of that may be overdone a bit, with a lot of sleet mixed in that forecasted projection. However, the thermal profiles looking at this latest GFS run look to be just cold enough to support potentially that amount of snowfall. No April Fool's joke here. That was yesterday lol.....


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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#35 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:06 pm

The updated 12Z GFS now is suggesting a significant snowfall beginning Friday and lasting into Saturday in a swath from the Southern Plains eastward to Washington, D.C. Amounts forecast to be from 3-7 inches within the swath. A very potent shortwave and the polar jet dipping south is bringing this potential for this weekend!

I swear, looking at this map, you would think that this is December instead of early April. :double:


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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#36 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:40 pm

Latest 12Z GFS forecast now is potentially showing upwards to 8 inches of snowfall by 0Z Saturday evening in a swath from Northern KY eastward to Washington, D.C.

It could manifest folks. Remember, New York City's Central Park picked up 5.5 inches of snow a couple of days ago on Monday (4-2-18), which snowed out the Yankees' home season opener....


The updated 12Z GFS snowfall projection 84 hours through 0Z 04/08/18

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Preliminary Winter 2017-2018

#37 Postby Bizzles » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:15 am

Whew, what a sprinter (spring winter...)

Guess we can wrap this up! Even though it was over 80 two days ago and now it's in the lower 40s...sigh crazy line of T-storms coming through in a few hours with what looks to be a back door front...
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