Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#101 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:47 pm

From all the different forecasts that I’ve seen so far for this upcoming winter the SE looks to be in the best spot with a big sweet spot around Georgia.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#102 Postby wxman22 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:31 pm

:uarrow: This winter is looking interesting with a weak to moderate El Nino, I think you're reading too much into the forecast if you are looking at specifics such as which state(s) get the worst of winter, general rule of thumb to take from these winter forecast is that there is a greater chance than normal of precipitation and colder temps and maybe even wintry precip, anything beyond that is anyone's guess especially this far out...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#103 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:04 am

It is looking more and more like we are getting an upper end weak El Nino, and maybe even more likely a moderate El Nino.

Some key years to watch for using a composite analog package

1963-1964
1968-1969
1986-1987
1987-1988
1994-1995
2002-2003
2009-2010

And you can also narrow it down to El Nino after double La Nina.

2009-2010 <- also one of the better matches for low solar.

We'll have to wait and see but these kind of Nino events are rare. We're not going to get the Super events that overwhelms Canada with Pacific air. The Subtropical jet has been active and likely will continue to be throughout winter. The play cards that made 2009-2010 so good was the severe -AO and -NAO throughout winter (with -EPO). The AO and NAO have been very positive as a whole for many years now. Can the Nino change it?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#104 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:It is looking more and more like we are getting an upper end weak El Nino, and maybe even more likely a moderate El Nino.

Some key years to watch for using a composite analog package

1963-1964
1968-1969
1986-1987
1987-1988
1994-1995
2002-2003
2009-2010

And you can also narrow it down to El Nino after double La Nina.

2009-2010 <- also one of the better matches for low solar.

We'll have to wait and see but these kind of Nino events are rare. We're not going to get the Super events that overwhelms Canada with Pacific air. The Subtropical jet has been active and likely will continue to be throughout winter. The play cards that made 2009-2010 so good was the severe -AO and -NAO throughout winter (with -EPO). The AO and NAO have been very positive as a whole for many years now. Can the Nino change it?


Of those analog years I'm more in-line with 63-64, 86-87, and 87-88. As for 2009-2010 i liked that year for pretty much the same reason, solar min. But that Winter started late after a warm dry Fall, it was early Dec before we even saw our first official freeze, but Jan, and Feb were cold and there were several winter wx events that season including the 12.5" of snow across all of DFW.

I think Winter will be early this season, and this El Nino should border on the weak/Moderate level during the peak of Winter which is really the perfect setup for us, along with the Solar min it just doesn't get much better.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#105 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:34 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Of those analog years I'm more in-line with 63-64, 86-87, and 87-88. As for 2009-2010 i liked that year for pretty much the same reason, solar min. But that Winter started late after a warm dry Fall, it was early Dec before we even saw our first official freeze, but Jan, and Feb were cold and there were several winter wx events that season including the 12.5" of snow across all of DFW.

I think Winter will be early this season, and this El Nino should border on the weak/Moderate level during the peak of Winter which is really the perfect setup for us, along with the Solar min it just doesn't get much better.


Yeah, it is very hard to get things to line up. Aside from the NAO and AO this year is probably more optimistic signs in many a years. The weak/mod Nino almost always promises some events. We'll need some help to really drive it above and beyond. It's difficult to get the lower to mid Ninos and come up with nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#106 Postby OKMet83 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:56 am

Latest AO/NAO forecast is for both to go negative...The nao has been positive since March I believe...if they both go very negative it means a fast start to winter as long as it keeps repeating so after a mid warm up going into the weekend we could see winter start to show up big time towards the end of Oct... If everything goes as planned expect a rapid acceleration into winter my friends! ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#107 Postby OKMet83 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:13 am

Also I want to stress for the followers.... An "active" winter doesn't always mean more snow. As we have witnessed time and time again across the SRN Plains and TX the upper level temperatures are CRITICAL on precip types.. Not saying we won't see a big winter storm with snow but also have to be thinking about the ice storm factor as well.. Regardless this winter will be much more active than previous winters in recent years as myself and others in here have been saying! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#108 Postby SoupBone » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:28 pm

OKMet83 wrote:Latest AO/NAO forecast is for both to go negative...The nao has been positive since March I believe...if they both go very negative it means a fast start to winter as long as it keeps repeating so after a mid warm up going into the weekend we could see winter start to show up big time towards the end of Oct... If everything goes as planned expect a rapid acceleration into winter my friends! ;)



A cold and dry Halloween would be awesome!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#109 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:18 pm

been in Chicago this weekend and its been cold... I'm so ready for snow now :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#110 Postby OKMet83 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:29 pm

Latest snow cover for the US is at 16.7% that now surpasses this date in 2009 (13.7%) and is the MOST ever recorded in 15+ years on this date going back to when NOAA started publishing records of it online in 2003...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#111 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:12 pm

OKMet83 wrote:Latest snow cover for the US is at 16.7% that now surpasses this date in 2009 (13.7%) and is the MOST ever recorded in 15+ years on this date going back to when NOAA started publishing records of it online in 2003...


Okmet83, of all the weak to moderate niños, which year matches this yr possibly with the qbo going positive soon?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#112 Postby SGJ » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:25 am

2 different meteorologists have posted about a weather event taking place around Halloween - and that the bad weather conditions from this event might linger for 7 days or so. I looked at both maps and Texas is various shades of blue. Have any of you heard anything about this event affecting our weather here in Texas (Dallas)?

We sure are experiencing an overabundance of rain...and temperatures are cold for this time of year. Do any of you think this a precursor for a BIG snowy / icy Texas winter?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#113 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:43 am

Image
Monday was a record setting day for DFW. A new record low temperature of 41 degrees was set. (The previous record was 42 degrees in 1922.) This is the first record low at DFW since July 2014. A new record low maximum temperature of 49 degrees was also set. (The previous record was 60 degrees in 1923.) This is the earliest in the season for a high temperature in the 40s. (The previous record was October 22, 1936.) A new daily precipitation record of 2.93" was set as well. (The previous record was 1.93" in 2007.)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#114 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:05 pm

SGJ wrote:2 different meteorologists have posted about a weather event taking place around Halloween - and that the bad weather conditions from this event might linger for 7 days or so. I looked at both maps and Texas is various shades of blue. Have any of you heard anything about this event affecting our weather here in Texas (Dallas)?

We sure are experiencing an overabundance of rain...and temperatures are cold for this time of year. Do any of you think this a precursor for a BIG snowy / icy Texas winter?


I haven't heard of anything winter related in the pipeline. Currently our patteren has been unusual, not for the rain but for the added early cold front that has made this rainy/cold event record breaking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#115 Postby OKMet83 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:33 pm

I know this is "Texas Winter" but for our friends to the North in Oklahoma I have a VERY Interesting stat that I think could be just ANOTHER sign of what is to come in the coming months for the Southern Plains...

Wettest August - October stretch on record

1: 23.49" - 1923 - * That Winter BROUGHT OVER 20+ Inches of Snow to Oklahoma City
2: 21.72" **SO FAR** 2018
3: 20.83" 1986 * That Winter BROUGHT OVER 20+ Inches of Snow to Oklahoma City

Average Snow during the Winter months for OKC is 8 inches

Very interesting stat I found today and had to share!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#116 Postby Texas Snow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:55 pm

OMG this thread is already 6 pages long and I'm just getting here? Well Howdy everyone!

I had the spa heated and the fireplace roaring for the first time last night, October freakin 15. Hopefully this is Mother Nature's way of telling us to buckle up for a wild ride!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#117 Postby Texas Snow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:17 pm

To OKMet's point, but in relation to North Texas instead of Oklahoma:

So far this is the 2nd wettest Oct on record in DFW. First is 1981
This is the wettest autumn on record (even thought its only half over). Number 3 is 1981

I know it doesn't correlate but its fun to look:

January 13, 1982 - Between 6-10 inches fell in a band from Hamilton to Hillsboro to Tyler, with Clifton and Itasca reporting 15 inches for the event. The totals easily place this event among the greatest North Texas snowfalls of the 20th century. At least four inches fell south of a line through Abilene-Dublin-Corsicana-Longview, and north of a line through San Angelo-San Saba-Marlin-Jacksonville. Only a trace fell in the Dallas/Fort Worth and Temple areas with this event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#118 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:07 pm

I read from another forum that 1880-81 is almost a perfect match for this upcoming winter. Very cold and snowy based on this guys research. His name is Eric webb. You can find him on twitter. He is very smart with patterns
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#119 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:42 pm

Texas Snow wrote:To OKMet's point, but in relation to North Texas instead of Oklahoma:

So far this is the 2nd wettest Oct on record in DFW. First is 1981
This is the wettest autumn on record (even thought its only half over). Number 3 is 1981

I know it doesn't correlate but its fun to look:

January 13, 1982 - Between 6-10 inches fell in a band from Hamilton to Hillsboro to Tyler, with Clifton and Itasca reporting 15 inches for the event. The totals easily place this event among the greatest North Texas snowfalls of the 20th century. At least four inches fell south of a line through Abilene-Dublin-Corsicana-Longview, and north of a line through San Angelo-San Saba-Marlin-Jacksonville. Only a trace fell in the Dallas/Fort Worth and Temple areas with this event


I'll pass... :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#120 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:49 pm

I am all in for this winter. The long range guidance to me smells like the 1963-1964/2009-2010 combo. Now I don't know if a foot of snow in one storm will fall like those years, but it is evident a sequential subtropical jet has established with Nino forcing.

December and February will be the pairing to watch this year for snow and ice. I'd watch the end of November as well.
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