Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#681 Postby Haris » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:13 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Haris wrote:Long range and medium range NAM is utter TRASH IMO lol

NAM does suck on precip but it is great for Arctic air and winter upper lows.


Sorry, I should have specified that. You're certainly 100% correct. It's precip is it's weakness
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#682 Postby Quixotic » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:18 pm

Hola everyone. This storm is all or bust. I will say this: I’ve lived in DFW 46 years and there’s only one instance I can remember where it’s a + ENSO and it wasn’t rain or snow and that’s February 2003. Everything has been either snow or rain.

2009-10 featured deep, dynamic lows that overperformed every time due to thickness trends. This W/E will either go snow or rain. No IP. No FR.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#683 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:25 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:Our more prominent local met is honest to a fault about this system! lol He says that this is one of the most difficult forecasts he has been involved with due to the models being all over the place. I couldn't imagine having to publicly release a forecast based on all the wackiness these models are giving us!


Okc nws has y’all within the 2-4 inch snowfall potential and ice prior to that. Hopefully that drifts south 100 miles and we can get in on that in dfw.
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Disclaimer: This is not an official weather forecast. I am only an amateur weather enthusiast therefore any weather forecasts or opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. Hook em Horns!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#684 Postby OKMet83 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:32 pm

nws in norman expanding the Winter Storm Watch father south by a few counties mentioning possible upgrade to warning by am shift based on latest trends with ice...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#685 Postby Jarodm12 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:40 pm

OKMet83 wrote:nws in norman expanding the Winter Storm Watch father south by a few counties mentioning possible upgrade to warning by am shift based on latest trends with ice...


Where are you seeing this? And why would they upgrade or expand the watch when EVERY single model has come in warmer and with negligable accumulation? Am I missing something ? Is their some model I haven't seen?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#686 Postby Cerlin » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:42 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:
OKMet83 wrote:nws in norman expanding the Winter Storm Watch father south by a few counties mentioning possible upgrade to warning by am shift based on latest trends with ice...


Where are you seeing this? And why would they upgrade or expand the watch when EVERY single model has come in warmer and with negligable accumulation? Am I missing something ? Is their some model I haven't seen?

Yes, the models are slightly warmer, but the system is shifting southward and thus so are the accumulations. The general trends of the system moving southward and the uncertainty in models means that the NWS is going to play it safe and go with a broader range of counties just in case.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#687 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:44 pm

As mentioned by a few of the local offices, December isn't a typical flash flood month, but there have still been some rather notable events, particularly in El Nino years. The two biggest I can think of offhand were the ones in the first week of December 1913 and the one in the back half of December 1991. Both of those were in El Nino winters following up very wet autumns, similar to how things have played out here recently. I don't imagine we're going to see a repeat of those two infamous events (those both resulted in some top end river flooding) due to shorter event duration and a slightly drier November, but I imagine there is going to be at least a small swath of 5"+ totals coming down in 24 hours or less, and that will cause some issues for sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#688 Postby Jarodm12 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:45 pm

If the watch expands southward because of the position of the current watch that means it expands Eastward and there is no evidence in any of the models that much further east of WF will recieve any impacts from snow, if any snow at all it appears it's all rain to the South and east
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#689 Postby Raebie » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:46 pm

Brent wrote:
Raebie wrote:Since hardly anyone is posting on the SE winter thread, how are the models looking for Charlotte? I'm really concerned about ice.


its looking pretty bad from what I've seen, looks like more ice than snow


Noooooo. Please sit the models down and have a come to Jesus talk with them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#690 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:03 pm

looking at the 0z RGEM and one of the WRF's on TT both look like the NAM where the snow is solid to the west/NW then evaporating as it approaches DFW

interesting trend to watch as the hi-res models start to come into play
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#691 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:30 am

Nothing really interesting on the 00z runs so far, unless you like less QPF.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#692 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:59 am

It’s looking like my area here in southeast TX is gonna get hammered. Bring it on! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#693 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:06 am

I have a feeling the DFW area will miss any winter precip....Atlanta has a decent shot at snow with this same system... :( :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#694 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:11 am

BTAYLOR5021 wrote:I have a feeling the DFW area will miss any winter precip....Atlanta has a decent shot at snow with this same system... :( :(


I never have expected snow in DFW really so for me its whatever. Hopefully we'll get a better setup before January.

and as for the Atlanta snow I'll believe it when I see it tbh, they are just as borderline as us
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#695 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:19 am

No real changes overnight so far. Most models are in agreement. Above 850mb it will be below freezing. 850 to 925mb straddles the freezing line. Above freezing below 925mb. This is for DFW and points east. This is a borderline set up that likely yeilds no snow but a bit stronger upper low would bring snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#696 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:50 am

bubba hotep wrote:Nothing really interesting on the 00z runs so far, unless you like less QPF.


At least we don't live in OKC... NWS Norman was 4-6" of snow yesterday and the 00z Euro delivers 0"!

Then the last 7 Euro runs at DFW for rain... 3.4, 3.1, 3.6, 3.2, 2.4, 1.4, 1" :(
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#697 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:10 am

The NWS has backed off a little bit with the snow and winter precip for WF and surrounding areas, along with raising the temps slightly. As of this morning they still seem to think that we will see something but confidence in what and how much is lower right now. It will be interesting to see what else changes throughout the day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#698 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:21 am

Weather models -
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#699 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:30 am

I can handle no snow but please give me an inch of rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#700 Postby missygirl810 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:46 am

This is greatness!!! Sums up winter in the south in one meme!!!




Yukon Cornelius wrote:Weather models -
http://i68.tinypic.com/r6wxe9.jpg
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