Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ralph's Weather]

We fell well short of the high today. Only made 56.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro weeklies look great, going to most of the memorable cold/wintry analogs out there! 2010 & 1978 stand out

[hamburgerman7070]

Latest Euro weeklies look great, going to most of the memorable cold/wintry analogs out there! 2010 & 1978 stand out

Orangeblood, what are your thoughts on this potential SSW event?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

FV3 is starting to see our amplified move through 5 into 6.

Releases thee arctic hounds on us the days leading up to New Years and through the first two days of January.





Lows in the 20s for an extended time period and highs in the 30s/40s all the way down to the coast.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed, the first true sign of the arctic air being tapped into and infiltrating south into the CONUS by the time the ball drops to ring in the new year.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:uarrow: Yes indeed, the first true sign of the arctic air being tapped into and infiltrating south into the CONUS by the time the ball drops to ring in the new year.

I will be in Jacksonville NYE to see the Ags put a boot in NCSU at the Gator Bowl. Looks like it could be chilly.

[Brent]

Latest Euro weeklies look great, going to most of the memorable cold/wintry analogs out there! 2010 & 1978 stand out

Bring it on its time to break our stupid snowless streak

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Yes indeed, the first true sign of the arctic air being tapped into and infiltrating south into the CONUS by the time the ball drops to ring in the new year.

I will be in Jacksonville NYE to see the Ags put a boot in NCSU at the Gator Bowl. Looks like it could be chilly.

Yeah that's right the Gator Bowl game. We welcome you here to my city when you get here in a couple of weeks.Yeah it is still 13 days out, but it could be a chilly game indeed. We will follow that closely as we get close to the game.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS keeps moving closer and closer to FV3. Our source region is frigid in the long range and we start stepping down NYE weekend.

[Brent]

both the Euro and GFS have a big rain event just after Christmas

[nathanc1969]

'Polar vortex' may unleash brutal chill on East Coast in coming weeks, scientists warn

That's the headline on Fox News this morning.

[bubba hotep]

'Polar vortex' may unleash brutal chill on East Coast in coming weeks, scientists warn

That's the headline on Fox News this morning.

The must have declined the option that I submitted:

In Major Breakthrough for Long Range Forecasting Scientist Discover that Cold Air Invades the US Between Thanksgiving and Easter!

[orangeblood]

'Polar vortex' may unleash brutal chill on East Coast in coming weeks, scientists warn

That's the headline on Fox News this morning.

The must have declined the option that I submitted:

In Major Breakthrough for Long Range Forecasting Scientist Discover that Cold Air Invades the US Between Thanksgiving and Easter!

hahaha well considering the analogs on the table and all GEFS members pointing towards a Major SSW event centered on the 26th, the severe option is on the table and nothing to scoff at....



Going from this


To this in less than 10 days

[WacoWx]

Isn't our source region rather warm in the scenario above (Western Canada)? Where would we be getting our cold air from?

[Ntxw]

Isn't our source region rather warm in the scenario above (Western Canada)? Where would we be getting our cold air from?

SSW's doesn't necessarily work that way. When the stratosphere is cold, the polar jets are strong creating a zonal wind in the troposphere (+AO) locking cold air in the Arctic. Warming of the strat disrupts the upper strong vortex, weakening the strong tight jets allowing cold air to move into the lower latitudes (-AO). Now we do need the Pacific to play nice to get the source region cold first too.

[Ralph's Weather]

Snuck in a freeze this morning at my house. It was a very foggy and frosty morning.

[orangeblood]

Models are getting really really noisy for the last week of the year....could be an extremely active period between Christmas and New Years!!!

[South Texas Storms]

Models are getting really really noisy for the last week of the year....could be an extremely active period between Christmas and New Years!!!

They sure are. Was just discussing with my long range partner about how January could be a very interesting month...

[Cpv17]

Man, the 12z FV3 hammers west Texas, New Mexico, & northern Mexico with a prolonged cold and snowy event. Not much for areas east of I-35 though.

[Ralph's Weather]

All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.