Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

I have been somewhat skeptical of big climate change....I thought it really was a small thing. But, the past few years make me wonder. Becoming harder to not see it as major significant changes.

[Cerlin]

Yeah climate change really is taking a toll on our winter threat. I’ll go out saying I’m a very big believer in climate change...but I’m also a big believer in this winter for us and I know we can still get something. We’ve had the cold and we’ve had the precipitation, just not together.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Please can we stop hyping up this less than winter...Sunday we went from 35/27 to 50/37 in Dfw with no snow...everytime its a bust...4th time this winter.....I'm so over this. We literally have to start taking these models with a grain of salt untill the event is at least 12 hours out. All major arctic intrusions are always southeast or east coast. Let's just accept our climate in the south is not what it once was ten years ago. I'm over it!! It's hard to even predict arctic airmasses now...smh...yet the locals on social media are calling saturday the coldest air of the season. False...

El Nino, La Nina, La Nada... doesn't matter. We don't get the extreme arctic air as often anymore. Exceptions occur, of course, but the change in frequency is remarkable. I saw some discussion of Dungan and Taft earlier in this thread, and they had a harder job back then forecasting true blue northers that are so rare nowadays. We're talking 60's to 10's/20's type fronts, and then staying there for a few days. Those fronts would often be accompanied by a significant sleet or ice event.

North Texas most certainly does not get the winter sleet and ice storms it used to see, not the threat or frequency of such... and that's been the case for a while now.

No disrespect intended, but this is simply wrong. The last 10 years is actually above average for Winter Wx events. The last 3.5 years of this decade (for Dallas) has sucked. It hasn’t for Houston. Last January, parts of SE TX got down to 3 degrees.

Now, you want to talk about decades that sucked? 90s, 50s and 30s. Those sucked.

The climate always changes and always will and there will be new normals for every 3-4 generations and its based on a lot of variables. If you’re implying humans are the cause, I’d be happy to challenge you on that in a private exchange.

[mcheer23]

Please can we stop hyping up this less than winter...Sunday we went from 35/27 to 50/37 in Dfw with no snow...everytime its a bust...4th time this winter.....I'm so over this. We literally have to start taking these models with a grain of salt untill the event is at least 12 hours out. All major arctic intrusions are always southeast or east coast. Let's just accept our climate in the south is not what it once was ten years ago. I'm over it!! It's hard to even predict arctic airmasses now...smh...yet the locals on social media are calling saturday the coldest air of the season. False...

El Nino, La Nina, La Nada... doesn't matter. We don't get the extreme arctic air as often anymore. Exceptions occur, of course, but the change in frequency is remarkable. I saw some discussion of Dungan and Taft earlier in this thread, and they had a harder job back then forecasting true blue northers that are so rare nowadays. We're talking 60's to 10's/20's type fronts, and then staying there for a few days. Those fronts would often be accompanied by a significant sleet or ice event.

North Texas most certainly does not get the winter sleet and ice storms it used to see, not the threat or frequency of such... and that's been the case for a while now.

No disrespect intended, but this is simply wrong. The last 10 years is actually above average for Winter Wx events. The last 3.5 years of this decade (for Dallas) has sucked. It hasn’t for Houston. Last January, parts of SE TX got down to 3 degrees.

Now, you want to talk about decades that sucked? 90s, 50s and 30s. Those sucked.

The climate always changes and always will and there will be new normals for every 3-4 generations and its based on a lot of variables. If you’re implying humans are the cause, I’d be happy to challenge you on that in a private exchange.

3 degrees....? Where? Lol

[Haris]

Alright gang, let’s get off the subject of climate change now

[ThunderSleetDreams]

El Nino, La Nina, La Nada... doesn't matter. We don't get the extreme arctic air as often anymore. Exceptions occur, of course, but the change in frequency is remarkable. I saw some discussion of Dungan and Taft earlier in this thread, and they had a harder job back then forecasting true blue northers that are so rare nowadays. We're talking 60's to 10's/20's type fronts, and then staying there for a few days. Those fronts would often be accompanied by a significant sleet or ice event.

North Texas most certainly does not get the winter sleet and ice storms it used to see, not the threat or frequency of such... and that's been the case for a while now.

No disrespect intended, but this is simply wrong. The last 10 years is actually above average for Winter Wx events. The last 3.5 years of this decade (for Dallas) has sucked. It hasn’t for Houston. Last January, parts of SE TX got down to 3 degrees.

Now, you want to talk about decades that sucked? 90s, 50s and 30s. Those sucked.

The climate always changes and always will and there will be new normals for every 3-4 generations and its based on a lot of variables. If you’re implying humans are the cause, I’d be happy to challenge you on that in a private exchange.

3 degrees....? Where? Lol

Davy Crockett National Forest outside of Crockett.

[Ntxw]

I would agree lets stay off the AGW argument and stick to day to day weather.

I understand the frustration of winter weather but lets first clear the claim the days of snow or ice in Texas or DFW or S Texas done for whatnot is not a true claim. Even IF you accepted AGW or believe natural variability it can and it will snow all the way down to the Texas coast in the near future. It would need to warm a significant amount more ( perhaps 50+ years away) from that point if it ever happens. It's comical take anecdotally we often use "it may never snow/sleet again" but that is unequivocally a false statement.

[Cerlin]

Okay, so, on a different note, all the hi-res models look very promising for DFW northern burbs for snow tomorrow. Most show at least something, maybe not accumulating or very much, but something.

[spencer817]

I would agree lets stay off the AGW argument and stick to day to day weather.

I understand the frustration of winter weather but lets first clear the claim the days of snow or ice in Texas or DFW or S Texas whatnot is not a true claim. Even IF you accepted AGW or believe natural variability it can and it will snow all the way down to the Texas coast in the near future. It would need to warm a significant amount more ( perhaps 50+ years away) from that point if it ever happens. It's comical take anecdotally we often use "it may never snow/sleet again" but that is unequivocally a false statement.

On another note, seems as if the 18z GFS is following the euro in terms of temps 9-10 days out.

[Ralph's Weather]

El Nino, La Nina, La Nada... doesn't matter. We don't get the extreme arctic air as often anymore. Exceptions occur, of course, but the change in frequency is remarkable. I saw some discussion of Dungan and Taft earlier in this thread, and they had a harder job back then forecasting true blue northers that are so rare nowadays. We're talking 60's to 10's/20's type fronts, and then staying there for a few days. Those fronts would often be accompanied by a significant sleet or ice event.

North Texas most certainly does not get the winter sleet and ice storms it used to see, not the threat or frequency of such... and that's been the case for a while now.

No disrespect intended, but this is simply wrong. The last 10 years is actually above average for Winter Wx events. The last 3.5 years of this decade (for Dallas) has sucked. It hasn’t for Houston. Last January, parts of SE TX got down to 3 degrees.

Now, you want to talk about decades that sucked? 90s, 50s and 30s. Those sucked.

The climate always changes and always will and there will be new normals for every 3-4 generations and its based on a lot of variables. If you’re implying humans are the cause, I’d be happy to challenge you on that in a private exchange.

3 degrees....? Where? Lol

It was 6 in the Tyler area exactly a year ago. Things really have not changed as much as people think. Texas is as snowy as it has ever been and extreme cold is rare but that has always been the case. Sample sizes are too low to really judge frequency (I venture to guess areas outside of NW Texas only go below 0 once every 5 years or more) and we only have good data for not much more than 100 years at best.

[Ntxw]

On another note, seems as if the 18z GFS is following the euro in terms of temps 9-10 days out.

It took a page off the Euro and CMC

[cheezyWXguy]

I have been somewhat skeptical of big climate change....I thought it really was a small thing. But, the past few years make me wonder. Becoming harder to not see it as major significant changes.

While I’ve also been wondering if anything we’ve been experiencing has been a direct result of climate change, I have my doubts, as it’s extremely difficult to attribute such a short term phenomenon in such a small region to a global root cause. Another example of a recent trend is annual precip in north Texas. While the prediction for Texas on average is that we will receive lower annual rainfall totals, we’ve had our 2 rainiest years on record in the last 5 years, and 2018’s can’t be attributed to a super El Niño the way 2015 was. Trends like this over a couple years’ time can definitely pique interest, but I think we’re dealing with much too small of a sample size in both time and space to attribute annual snowfall rates in the last 4 years directly to global climate change

[ThunderSleetDreams]

On another note, seems as if the 18z GFS is following the euro in terms of temps 9-10 days out.

It took a page off the Euro and CMC

https://images2.imgbox.com/82/bf/p0uSaKfF_o.png

Yep.

[Ntxw]

When a glancing blow equates to more than a direct blow needs censorship

[ThunderSleetDreams]

When a glancing blow equates to more than a direct blow needs censorship

https://images2.imgbox.com/c6/78/vdyaqMj4_o.png

Knoxville is below zero for 24 hours

[aggiecutter]

A year ago last night, with 3" of snow on the ground, Texarkana set a record low for the date of 6 degrees.

[spencer817]

Always love to see patterns like this upcoming one, with a -EPO

[bubba hotep]

HRRR continues to show a period of snow(?) tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE and SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any real snow potential. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday.

[Texas Snowman]

Always good to see the local TV Mets talking snow in the Red River Valley forecast!