Texas Winter 2019-2020

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northjaxpro
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3001 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:59 pm

LOL.. You know, I peek in on occasions see the latest happenings with you all out there. I swear, every time I look at the models, they are showing shot of wintry precip west of DFW, I have seen shifts to the south of DFW on the EURO, and now they are showing a shot of wintry precip east of DFW for next week. LOL..

You all out in the DFW metroplex area, if you all do not get a good snow event within the next week with what I am looking at with the models. then Mother Nature must have a curse or something on you all LOL... I hope you all there get the snow to happen! I really do!!

Heck, at least you all are seeing some winter cold at times, something we can't buy here in Northeast Florida. The temp BTW reached 89.3 degrees for the max today at my home station, not only a record for today, but by a whisker, just missed seeing the earliest 90 degree temp I could have recorded here today for so early in the calendar year! Unbelievable!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Monitoring the 2019-2020 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3002 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro has next week's possible snow falling west of DFW and east of DFW but not over DFW. It must be correct...

http://wxman57.com/images/EC2.png


Sounds about right :cheesy:

I agree with the other post if we can't get snow next week then we really are cursed :lol:

GFS be trolling :spam: the snow just stops
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3003 Postby nathanc1969 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:01 pm

San Angelo NWS says it right.....

Different story for mid week however, with models in decent
agreement on a much colder air mass settling into the area as a
1040mb+ surface high drops out of Canada and into the Plains.
Precip chances look to increase by Tuesday night and continue
through Thursday as low level moisture overruns the boundary.
Models have their disagreements on details, with the GFS showing a
more shallow overrunning and warm advection pattern just above
the surface, leading to a sounding that looks more like rain or
maybe freezing rain. ECMWF has a deeper cold air mass, allowing
the precip to mainly be a sleet/snow concern. As we saw last week,
models struggle getting the thermal profile correct in the first
period, much less this far out. Not going to sweat the details at
this point, but will continue to mention some sort of wintry mix
possible in the climatologically favored areas mainly north of a
San Angelo to Abilene line. Obviously, temperatures look to be
much colder during this time period as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3004 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:22 pm

Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3005 Postby TXdaddy217 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro has next week's possible snow falling west of DFW and east of DFW but not over DFW. It must be correct...

http://wxman57.com/images/EC2.png

99 inches in Abilene. LOL. :D
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I am not a meteorologist. Anything posted by me should not be taken as an official forecast. Get your information from respected sources such as NWS and NOAA. I get my weather information the same way Hank Hill does ..... I look out the window and say ... "YUP".

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3006 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 pm

Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg


What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3007 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:13 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg


What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.


I think it's a model tbh(if you've noticed the op runs have went around Dallas today) but that would be funny :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3008 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:33 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg


What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.


Troll us? He might have done it just to troll Brent! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3009 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:50 pm

Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg


Looks like he is showing the 12z Euro which had an odd precip type depiction, esp. when you look at soundings.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3010 Postby Texas Snow » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:18 pm

OZ gfs really backs off frozen precip and moves snow further west

Being the gfs I consider this a positive :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3011 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:21 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg


What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.


Troll us? He might have done it just to troll Brent! :D


Lol well I mean I've seen snow twice in the last 5 weeks but always somewhere else. I really wanna bring this one home tbh i feel like the winter is complete if it does
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3012 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:31 am

Euro looks to have lost the snow on Wednesday :spam:

It's much further away from DFW and all west of 35

Image

12z

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3013 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:56 am

Not a good overnight trend when you see the Euro ENS and GFS ENS flip roles, GEFS is a terrible teammate to have on your team! :roll:

GEFS
Image

EPS
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3014 Postby dhweather » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:28 am

Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg



This is flat out irresponsible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3015 Postby mcallum177 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:55 am

Which website has the postage stamp thumbnails of the ECMWF ensemble? I use College of Dupage to look at the GEFS ensemble but they dont have the ECMWF on there.

orangeblood wrote:Not a good overnight trend when you see the Euro ENS and GFS ENS flip roles, GEFS is a terrible teammate to have on your team! :roll:

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581660000/1581660000-fsAEA5oq3cY.png

EPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581638400/1581638400-l4nl0lZNAqM.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3016 Postby dhweather » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:54 am

Of interest in the 12Z GFS, in the 10-14 day time frame, there's a lot of rain in Texas :double:

That's > 5 days out, so don't count on it.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3017 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:13 pm

mcallum177 wrote:Which website has the postage stamp thumbnails of the ECMWF ensemble? I use College of Dupage to look at the GEFS ensemble but they dont have the ECMWF on there.

orangeblood wrote:Not a good overnight trend when you see the Euro ENS and GFS ENS flip roles, GEFS is a terrible teammate to have on your team! :roll:

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581660000/1581660000-fsAEA5oq3cY.png

EPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581638400/1581638400-l4nl0lZNAqM.png


you have to pay $$$ for the EPS generally wxbell or wxmodels

anyway looking at the 12z Euro Wednesday is rain and south of DFW, no snow out west

Thursday some snow in far West Texas generally around San Angelo and west but its dry in DFW and rain is to the south

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3018 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:05 pm

Stop watching the models, they sit on a throne of lies, and smell like beer and cheese. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3019 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:32 pm

GFS is playing it safe and not wanting to get snow too close to DFW lol

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3020 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:55 pm

bubba hotep wrote:GFS is playing it safe and not wanting to get snow too close to DFW lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021418/gfs_asnow_scus_33.png


The EPS has basically entirely lost it not good
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