Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7521 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:35 pm

tolakram wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Fair enough. I'm just making the counter-argument that perhaps retiring the 12 GW of Coal and Nat Gas over past 15 years (much more reliable resource) and replacing with 15 GW new Wind (less reliable) was a mistake, this crisis could've been averted as well!



I'm not sure this is true, that's what needs to be figured out. Natural gas had the largest outage during this event due to frozen equipment, even a nuclear reactor went offline for the same reason. I understand your point, replacing all the wind with something more consistent might have averted the outage, but I think it would have been a negligible improvement. Hopefully it will be reviewed fairly and changes will be put in place so it doesn't happen again.


Based on pretty decent verifiable data you can breakdown the productivity gain/loss b/w each resource. For example, using last weeks crisis:

Nat Gas appeared to be around 70% effective at its worst moment - 31 GW produced vs. 44 GW capacity
Wind appeared to be around 16% effective at its worst moment - 4 GW produced vs. 25 GW Capacity (installed)

So when stress testing extremes, a way to break this down in simple terms could be: For every new 1 GW of installed capacity b/w Nat Gas vs.Wind, there is a net productivity gain of 540 MW favoring the Nat Gas side. 700 MW Nat Gas - 160 MW Wind = 540 MW Gain. Those are significant differences that need serious thought when evaluating future planning - pros and cons

Agreed, this review process needs to be an open/honest discussion with an attempt to remove any political leanings and spin jobs with the data/stick with the facts...it's a very serious topic.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7522 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:57 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Interesting...

————-

@KOCOdamonlane — Oklahoma City: This month will go down as the coldest February on record and likely the 2nd coldest month ever on record.

WOAH! What is the coldest month ever recorded in OKC?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7523 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:55 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:Interesting...

————-

@KOCOdamonlane — Oklahoma City: This month will go down as the coldest February on record and likely the 2nd coldest month ever on record.

WOAH! What is the coldest month ever recorded in OKC?



Norman NWS added this clarification this afternoon...

@NWSNorman — In #OKC the average temperature for February 2021 has been 25.6 degrees. The month will end on the warm side and the average temperature will likely be around 30. This will still rank the month as the 5th coldest, and 15 coldest month since records began in 1890. #okwx
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7524 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:37 pm

1. As far the energy discussion, I think this has only been mentioned one time.... Money. Wind is very efficient at producing power in certain areas of Texas.

2. The chart Orangeblood posted shows how wind energy erratic with its output. Doesn't mean it's bad at all. They can produce quite a bit of power at a low cost. It works when properly maintained and the infrastructure is built for it. Europe, Germany specifically, has way more wind energy than us, and I doubt they go through crisis like this when the "beast from the east," comes to town.

3. ERCOT or whoever should have sufficient energy and infrastructure to handle an event that occurs about every 15-20 years. Period. They should have plenty of data inorder to understand at a minimum what it will require to handle these types of events. It's not about the type of energy source that produces output.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7525 Postby opticsguy » Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:18 pm

In my home town of Ludington, MI there is the Ludington Pumped Storage plant. Google it. In the 60s they built this huge reservoir that Consumers Power would fill with water every night and run turbines during the day to supplement the demands of the auto plants. It may have been 50% efficient, but it stored a LOT of energy. It can be done.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7526 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:19 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:1. As far the energy discussion, I think this has only been mentioned one time.... Money. Wind is very efficient at producing power in certain areas of Texas.

2. The chart Orangeblood posted shows how wind energy erratic with its output. Doesn't mean it's bad at all. They can produce quite a bit of power at a low cost. It works when properly maintained and the infrastructure is built for it. Europe, Germany specifically, has way more wind energy than us, and I doubt they go through crisis like this when the "beast from the east," comes to town.

3. ERCOT or whoever should have sufficient energy and infrastructure to handle an event that occurs about every 15-20 years. Period. They should have plenty of data inorder to understand at a minimum what it will require to handle these types of events. It's not about the type of energy source that produces output.


I’ve looked at numerous energy investment projects over the years and found that renewables are extremely capital intensive , not only from the infrastructure costs up front but also the ongoing operating expenses. Add to it that from an ERCOT perspective - due to winds erratic/unreliable nature, you need reliable backup in times when it can’t meet expectations. This actually makes it much more costly as you’re essentially paying for double the infrastructure - both from wind and a backup source.

As far as Germany is concerned, they have some of the highest consumer energy prices on the planet...I don’t believe we’d want to go down that path
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7527 Postby Cerlin » Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:34 pm

It's also a question of our future. Even if renewable energy turns out to be more cost-ineffective than nonrenewable energy is, does the cost saved by nonrenewable energy outweigh the cost of natural capital we lose from manmade climate change--the destruction of biodiversity at unprecedented levels, the rising and acidification of our seas, and the melting of our polar ice caps, etc? I don't think it does personally and, especially being younger, I want to have a planet that I know will be safe for me and future generations. Renewable energy has proven to be one of the most concrete solutions towards achieving that goal, which is why I think, despite shortcomings with current renewable energy technology, that the Texas power grid should be switching to better, stronger, and more efficient infrastructure that supports renewable energy, as opposed to having the grid cling onto a power source that not only hurts our planet but that is so incredibly finite. Those resources will deplete at some point. Wind and solar energy, however, won't. And, it needs to be done while Texas still can, and while we have had this outbreak to prove that the grid is in major need of an overhaul and implementation of winterization processes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7528 Postby ZeroGee » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:42 am

Could you cite some examples of man made climate change?

Cerlin wrote:It's also a question of our future. Even if renewable energy turns out to be more cost-ineffective than nonrenewable energy is, does the cost saved by nonrenewable energy outweigh the cost of natural capital we lose from manmade climate change--the destruction of biodiversity at unprecedented levels, the rising and acidification of our seas, and the melting of our polar ice caps, etc? I don't think it does personally and, especially being younger, I want to have a planet that I know will be safe for me and future generations. Renewable energy has proven to be one of the most concrete solutions towards achieving that goal, which is why I think, despite shortcomings with current renewable energy technology, that the Texas power grid should be switching to better, stronger, and more efficient infrastructure that supports renewable energy, as opposed to having the grid cling onto a power source that not only hurts our planet but that is so incredibly finite. Those resources will deplete at some point. Wind and solar energy, however, won't. And, it needs to be done while Texas still can, and while we have had this outbreak to prove that the grid is in major need of an overhaul and implementation of winterization processes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7529 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:01 am

Cerlin wrote:It's also a question of our future. Even if renewable energy turns out to be more cost-ineffective than nonrenewable energy is, does the cost saved by nonrenewable energy outweigh the cost of natural capital we lose from manmade climate change--the destruction of biodiversity at unprecedented levels, the rising and acidification of our seas, and the melting of our polar ice caps, etc? I don't think it does personally and, especially being younger, I want to have a planet that I know will be safe for me and future generations. Renewable energy has proven to be one of the most concrete solutions towards achieving that goal, which is why I think, despite shortcomings with current renewable energy technology, that the Texas power grid should be switching to better, stronger, and more efficient infrastructure that supports renewable energy, as opposed to having the grid cling onto a power source that not only hurts our planet but that is so incredibly finite. Those resources will deplete at some point. Wind and solar energy, however, won't. And, it needs to be done while Texas still can, and while we have had this outbreak to prove that the grid is in major need of an overhaul and implementation of winterization processes.


Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this subject, a very interesting way of looking at it...these are the type of discussions/perspectives that need to be brought to the table in order to have a well thought out plan for our energy future. And as it relates to this forum, Weather is front and center of that discussion. A few questions/thoughts related to your post:

Do we have any proof that man is influencing our climate in any significant manner ? If so, to what degree (figuratively and literally) ?

Wind/Solar also seems to be a limited finite resource from a scale perspective, doesn't it ? For example, we look at forecast models every day on this forum....just looking at wind and cloud cover forecasts, there appear to be a limited amount of ideal geographical locations for these wind and solar farms (consistent wind/sun)...they seem to be very seasonally and geographically limited as they are 100% at the mercy of the local climate of that particular local, which is constantly changing and have extreme variances. I don't believe wind/solar is an "infinite" as most people believe and is no doubt, intermittent! Should it be part of the energy equation, absolutely, but my point is that we need to be very careful not to rely on it too much, as it can leave us very exposed to the extremes of Mother Nature!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7530 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:06 am

Cerlin wrote:It's also a question of our future. Even if renewable energy turns out to be more cost-ineffective than nonrenewable energy is, does the cost saved by nonrenewable energy outweigh the cost of natural capital we lose from manmade climate change--the destruction of biodiversity at unprecedented levels, the rising and acidification of our seas, and the melting of our polar ice caps, etc? I don't think it does personally and, especially being younger, I want to have a planet that I know will be safe for me and future generations. Renewable energy has proven to be one of the most concrete solutions towards achieving that goal, which is why I think, despite shortcomings with current renewable energy technology, that the Texas power grid should be switching to better, stronger, and more efficient infrastructure that supports renewable energy, as opposed to having the grid cling onto a power source that not only hurts our planet but that is so incredibly finite. Those resources will deplete at some point. Wind and solar energy, however, won't. And, it needs to be done while Texas still can, and while we have had this outbreak to prove that the grid is in major need of an overhaul and implementation of winterization processes.
I am in love with this quote.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7531 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:56 am

Let's see, which felt better - the low of 13 last Tuesday or the high of 80F yesterday?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7532 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:03 am

wxman57 wrote:Let's see, which felt better - the low of 13 last Tuesday or the high of 80F yesterday?

The high of 80 is MUCH better than 13 this time around . . .

(Got up to 74 at my house in Oklahoma . . .)
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7533 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:10 am

orangeblood wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:1. As far the energy discussion, I think this has only been mentioned one time.... Money. Wind is very efficient at producing power in certain areas of Texas.

2. The chart Orangeblood posted shows how wind energy erratic with its output. Doesn't mean it's bad at all. They can produce quite a bit of power at a low cost. It works when properly maintained and the infrastructure is built for it. Europe, Germany specifically, has way more wind energy than us, and I doubt they go through crisis like this when the "beast from the east," comes to town.

3. ERCOT or whoever should have sufficient energy and infrastructure to handle an event that occurs about every 15-20 years. Period. They should have plenty of data inorder to understand at a minimum what it will require to handle these types of events. It's not about the type of energy source that produces output.


I’ve looked at numerous energy investment projects over the years and found that renewables are extremely capital intensive , not only from the infrastructure costs up front but also the ongoing operating expenses. Add to it that from an ERCOT perspective - due to winds erratic/unreliable nature, you need reliable backup in times when it can’t meet expectations. This actually makes it much more costly as you’re essentially paying for double the infrastructure - both from wind and a backup source.

As far as Germany is concerned, they have some of the highest consumer energy prices on the planet...I don’t believe we’d want to go down that path


Europe in general does, and the use of wind power lowers this cost. The point is, they are able to run them in climates worse than what we see in Texas. There's no question about the profitability and cost effectiveness of wind power. They wouldn't use it if it wasn't.

I find it very unlikely that maintaining a farm of wind turbines costs more to maintain than a large thermal plant. I dont have specifics, but i find that unlikely. Having thermal as a backup as needed would still be efficient in many scenarios, it's just erratic based on the weather.

Look at the chart you posted, wind power fell just as much as it did in this past winter storm as it did many other times. So what is so different about the behavior for wind power? As stated before, they expected little wind energy during this crisis ahead of time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7534 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:15 am

Cerlin wrote:It's also a question of our future. Even if renewable energy turns out to be more cost-ineffective than nonrenewable energy is, does the cost saved by nonrenewable energy outweigh the cost of natural capital we lose from manmade climate change--the destruction of biodiversity at unprecedented levels, the rising and acidification of our seas, and the melting of our polar ice caps, etc? I don't think it does personally and, especially being younger, I want to have a planet that I know will be safe for me and future generations. Renewable energy has proven to be one of the most concrete solutions towards achieving that goal, which is why I think, despite shortcomings with current renewable energy technology, that the Texas power grid should be switching to better, stronger, and more efficient infrastructure that supports renewable energy, as opposed to having the grid cling onto a power source that not only hurts our planet but that is so incredibly finite. Those resources will deplete at some point. Wind and solar energy, however, won't. And, it needs to be done while Texas still can, and while we have had this outbreak to prove that the grid is in major need of an overhaul and implementation of winterization processes.


I am still up in the air on climate change being man made, for the record. We dont have enough information or data. We actually may, but we dont know how to interpret it. We dont know where it begins. Is it the chicken or the egg scenario? Antarctica still has some high sea ice years, where the north pole doesnt.

With that said, youre right, solar and wind research has come a long way and is now cost effective and must be used in certain applications. It will keep costs down and save billions in the end. It has its cons, but so does every other energy source. Once battery technology improves, there's no looking back for the technologies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7535 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:15 am

wxman57 wrote:Let's see, which felt better - the low of 13 last Tuesday or the high of 80F yesterday?


An experience i'll never forget. I actually dont mind the cold, but holy moly, the wind..... that was the worst part.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7536 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:20 am

wxman57 wrote:Let's see, which felt better - the low of 13 last Tuesday or the high of 80F yesterday?

Ok you have a point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7537 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:21 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Cerlin wrote:It's also a question of our future. Even if renewable energy turns out to be more cost-ineffective than nonrenewable energy is, does the cost saved by nonrenewable energy outweigh the cost of natural capital we lose from manmade climate change--the destruction of biodiversity at unprecedented levels, the rising and acidification of our seas, and the melting of our polar ice caps, etc? I don't think it does personally and, especially being younger, I want to have a planet that I know will be safe for me and future generations. Renewable energy has proven to be one of the most concrete solutions towards achieving that goal, which is why I think, despite shortcomings with current renewable energy technology, that the Texas power grid should be switching to better, stronger, and more efficient infrastructure that supports renewable energy, as opposed to having the grid cling onto a power source that not only hurts our planet but that is so incredibly finite. Those resources will deplete at some point. Wind and solar energy, however, won't. And, it needs to be done while Texas still can, and while we have had this outbreak to prove that the grid is in major need of an overhaul and implementation of winterization processes.


I am still up in the air on climate change being man made, for the record. We dont have enough information or data. We actually may, but we dont know how to interpret it. We dont know where it begins. Is it the chicken or the egg scenario? Antarctica still has some high sea ice years, where the north pole doesnt.

With that said, youre right, solar and wind research has come a long way and is now cost effective and must be used in certain applications. It will keep costs down and save billions in the end. It has its cons, but so does every other energy source. Once battery technology improves, there's no looking back for the technologies.

Unfortunately there is something called a solar flare...
If 1859 happened again....... The world would end as we know it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7538 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:36 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Europe in general does, and the use of wind power lowers this cost. The point is, they are able to run them in climates worse than what we see in Texas. There's no question about the profitability and cost effectiveness of wind power. They wouldn't use it if it wasn't.

I find it very unlikely that maintaining a farm of wind turbines costs more to maintain than a large thermal plant. I dont have specifics, but i find that unlikely. Having thermal as a backup as needed would still be efficient in many scenarios, it's just erratic based on the weather.

Look at the chart you posted, wind power fell just as much as it did in this past winter storm as it did many other times. So what is so different about the behavior for wind power? As stated before, they expected little wind energy during this crisis ahead of time.


You sure about the cost effectiveness of wind in Europe ?? Because there is no empirical evidence to back that assertion up....Europe has some of the most expensive electricity pricing on the planet. As far as cheap energy goes, Europe has failed in that regard!!!

Just look at the 2020 numbers below...Do you think it's a coincidence that the 5 cheapest providers of electricity on the planet have some of the highest uses of Coal/Natural Gas ?? At least to date, renewables can't even come close to competing with Fossil Fuels from a cost perspective.

Country Average price in cents/kWh
Germany .39
Denmark .32
Japan .29
Australia .26
UK .26
Spain .23
France .22
South Africa .15
Brazil .14
USA .14
Canada .11
Russia .06
Nigeria .06
China .08
India .08
Qatar .03
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7539 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:53 am

Spring is coming.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7540 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:04 am



Yes it is....typically, at this time of year, we are pretty desperate for any sign of winter weather. I think we've had our fill LOL!!
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