Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#21 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:31 pm

Old Farmers Almanac has just showed their 2021-2022 Winter Predictions . . .

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#22 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 09, 2021 2:48 pm

Good comments and fair points, y'all. If we could enjoy a nice Texas winter event without worrying about losing power and water ... yes, that would be ideal!

And mea culpa to my friend hriverajr, Del Rio IS the new snow capital of Texas. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#23 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:29 am

For those of you curious about this coming winter — which should be everyone here! — @BenNollWeather on Twitter has pinned a very interesting thread. I encourage you to check it out!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#24 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:46 am

Portastorm wrote:For those of you curious about this coming winter — which should be everyone here! — @BenNollWeather on Twitter has pinned a very interesting thread. I encourage you to check it out!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1439200092498522112


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#25 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Portastorm wrote:For those of you curious about this coming winter — which should be everyone here! — @BenNollWeather on Twitter has pinned a very interesting thread. I encourage you to check it out!

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1439200092498522112?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So in idiot terms?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#26 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:42 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Portastorm wrote:For those of you curious about this coming winter — which should be everyone here! — @BenNollWeather on Twitter has pinned a very interesting thread. I encourage you to check it out!

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1439200092498522112?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So in idiot terms?


Good set up for cold air to move south earlier in the season. and reduced zonal Pacific flow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#27 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:


Good set up for cold air to move south earlier in the season. and reduced zonal Pacific flow.

And longer lasting as well? I have a very bad feeling about this . . .
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#28 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Sep 19, 2021 6:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:


Good set up for cold air to move south earlier in the season. and reduced zonal Pacific flow.

Hopefully. This late summer doesn’t want to give up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#29 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:04 pm

Good thread from about SSW. I hope he's right!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#30 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:So in idiot terms?


Good set up for cold air to move south earlier in the season. and reduced zonal Pacific flow.

And longer lasting as well? I have a very bad feeling about this . . .


We'll have to see. There are plenty of 2nd year Ninas that are duds like 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 which ends up warm. The weight is always under the blocking, if they happen. When you're dealing with weak-mod ENSO events, ever so changing climo with those, blocking is often the deciding factor. That's the toughest part and I've learned over the years trying to predict that beyond a month often gets burned. Remember in February it was the severe blocking over the AO/NAO that helped steer the cold air mass down our way once the EPO set stage for blast. And that AO/NAO blocking was persistent the whole winter pretty much. There were several snow events prior in Texas already.

In short if the blocking is there we can expect cold to play, if not then we'll get a lot of typical Nina cold west/warm central and east torch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#31 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:25 pm

I’m ready for some winter weather events this season. Considering that for most of us, last winter’s temps were the most extreme of our lives in this area, it’s pretty statistically unlikely to get something that severe two years in a row. I’m sure most of you would still be pretty excited if the forecast showed a foot of snow and a day or two hovering in the low 20s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#32 Postby Quixotic » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Good set up for cold air to move south earlier in the season. and reduced zonal Pacific flow.

And longer lasting as well? I have a very bad feeling about this . . .


We'll have to see. There are plenty of 2nd year Ninas that are duds like 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 which ends up warm. The weight is always under the blocking, if they happen. When you're dealing with weak-mod ENSO events, ever so changing climo with those, blocking is often the deciding factor. That's the toughest part and I've learned over the years trying to predict that beyond a month often gets burned. Remember in February it was the severe blocking over the AO/NAO that helped steer the cold air mass down our way once the EPO set stage for blast. And that AO/NAO blocking was persistent the whole winter pretty much. There were several snow events prior in Texas already.

In short if the blocking is there we can expect cold to play, if not then we'll get a lot of typical Nina cold west/warm central and east torch.


Agree with most of this. Might be hedging a bit on 2008-09. I recall we had two ice/sleet storms (one in December and one in January). They weren't huge but I remember work being shut down two days for the first event and one day for the second. While not great overall, it wasn't a total disaster like the five years prior to last winter.

2011-12 was an abject disaster. Considering the prior two winters and the next three winters. 12-13 is arguable but we had a 4-6 week window where we got 3 measurable events in my neck of the woods.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#33 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:09 pm

Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgrove

"The run-up for the winter season has begun. But you might not know it if you looked at the October temperature forecasts.

Typically, early autumn is characterized by a mostly flat, west-to-east jet stream dominated by the polar branch. But this fall is showing signs of Rex blocking across Canada, an important subtropical flow at 500MB (usually concurrent with an El Nino episode), and an ever-deeper Gulf of Alaska Low (a La Nina characteristic). Myself and other synoptic meteorologists are seeing this unusual configuration. If things keep progressing, that mash-up of atmospheric features -could- lead to a more bullish NDJFM period than what we have seen in the past few years."
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#34 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:19 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgrove

"The run-up for the winter season has begun. But you might not know it if you looked at the October temperature forecasts.

Typically, early autumn is characterized by a mostly flat, west-to-east jet stream dominated by the polar branch. But this fall is showing signs of Rex blocking across Canada, an important subtropical flow at 500MB (usually concurrent with an El Nino episode), and an ever-deeper Gulf of Alaska Low (a La Nina characteristic). Myself and other synoptic meteorologists are seeing this unusual configuration. If things keep progressing, that mash-up of atmospheric features -could- lead to a more bullish NDJFM period than what we have seen in the past few years."

So, what does that mean for our Winter? More Brutal than Last Winter or a 2011-2012 Repeat?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#35 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:24 pm

Does this mean colder winter for North Texas?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#36 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:05 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgrove

"The run-up for the winter season has begun. But you might not know it if you looked at the October temperature forecasts.

Typically, early autumn is characterized by a mostly flat, west-to-east jet stream dominated by the polar branch. But this fall is showing signs of Rex blocking across Canada, an important subtropical flow at 500MB (usually concurrent with an El Nino episode), and an ever-deeper Gulf of Alaska Low (a La Nina characteristic). Myself and other synoptic meteorologists are seeing this unusual configuration. If things keep progressing, that mash-up of atmospheric features -could- lead to a more bullish NDJFM period than what we have seen in the past few years."

So, what does that mean for our Winter? More Brutal than Last Winter or a 2011-2012 Repeat?


A Rex block over Western Canada would be amazing for us with low pressures kicking out of the Southwest and cold air funneling down the Plains. A Gulf of Alaska low is usually bad news for us, but if shifted west some could still workout well for us. Larry seems to be highlighting cold intrusions though as he mentions that people need to wrap up their vacations over the next couple of weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:18 am

TheProfessor wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgrove

"The run-up for the winter season has begun. But you might not know it if you looked at the October temperature forecasts.

Typically, early autumn is characterized by a mostly flat, west-to-east jet stream dominated by the polar branch. But this fall is showing signs of Rex blocking across Canada, an important subtropical flow at 500MB (usually concurrent with an El Nino episode), and an ever-deeper Gulf of Alaska Low (a La Nina characteristic). Myself and other synoptic meteorologists are seeing this unusual configuration. If things keep progressing, that mash-up of atmospheric features -could- lead to a more bullish NDJFM period than what we have seen in the past few years."

So, what does that mean for our Winter? More Brutal than Last Winter or a 2011-2012 Repeat?


A Rex block over Western Canada would be amazing for us with low pressures kicking out of the Southwest and cold air funneling down the Plains. A Gulf of Alaska low is usually bad news for us, but if shifted west some could still workout well for us. Larry seems to be highlighting cold intrusions though as he mentions that people need to wrap up their vacations over the next couple of weeks.


I do want to mention that a stronger Alaska Low increases the chances of a Bomb Cyclone that WILL cause a nasty cold wave into the CONUS, one such example was the Bering Sea Bomb Cyclone in November 2014, which led to bitterly cold Temperatures spilling into the USA by Mid-November.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#38 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 03, 2021 2:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:So, what does that mean for our Winter? More Brutal than Last Winter or a 2011-2012 Repeat?


A Rex block over Western Canada would be amazing for us with low pressures kicking out of the Southwest and cold air funneling down the Plains. A Gulf of Alaska low is usually bad news for us, but if shifted west some could still workout well for us. Larry seems to be highlighting cold intrusions though as he mentions that people need to wrap up their vacations over the next couple of weeks.


I do want to mention that a stronger Alaska Low increases the chances of a Bomb Cyclone that WILL cause a nasty cold wave into the CONUS, one such example was the Bering Sea Bomb Cyclone in November 2014, which led to bitterly cold Temperatures spilling into the USA by Mid-November.


The Bering/Aleutian low in the Fall especially Oct/Nov and early Dec some years is important. Sure we can get milder Pacific flow but that low feature if dominant brings heat flux poleward and is usually a precursor to a weakened Stratosphere PV.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#39 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:23 am

The GFS model hinted Snowtober for Oklahoma last year, & it's back yet again! :eek:

Image

Image

I doubt this will last since it's in the long run . . .
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#40 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:51 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The GFS model hinted Snowtober for Oklahoma last year, & it's back yet again! :eek:

Image

Image

I doubt this will last since it's in the long run . . .


Give it a minute. Next run it’ll be 90 and sun. :lol:

On the flip side it’s nice to start seeing something from the GFS. Considering we haven’t really had a major cooldown, 40/50F temps would be pretty nice after a lot of 90F days
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