Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#41 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:44 pm

Snow in Kansas City on the 12z GFS :spam:

Winter is coming
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#42 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:05 am

CFS not looking good for us in November, but I've also seen patterns wasted in November so I kind of don't mind it lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#43 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:28 pm

Originally from aggiecutter from the Texas Fall 2021 Forum

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#44 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:49 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#45 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:26 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#46 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:40 am

Long-Range 0z GFS has rain/snow mix in Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#47 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:22 am

I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#48 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:01 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.


The signal is there for early cold starting late November going into December. I've kind of had 2013 on my mind, which I'm sure no one in DFW wants to hear. The question will be if we can keep an active pattern with the cold.

I'm also optimistic about the winter outside of possible SSWs (which may not lead to cold) seems like the seasonal models like ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor a -EPO. This would keep us cool throughout the winter if it were to happen, especially if we can combine it with a +AO and ridging in the Southeast/East Coast. The caveat is that if you combine it with an SSW event with cold leaking into the Americas, you end up with your February 21s and December 1989s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#49 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:12 pm

18z GFS has Very Cold Trough in the Northern & Central Plains to start November/

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#50 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:17 pm

It seems like we always have a warm pool in the GOA region now, but this one seems to be drifting into the sweet spot at the right time for winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#51 Postby Quixotic » Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:48 pm

Only care about the EPO this winter. High latitude blocking is more likely than usual, IMO. Just hope it pops in the right spot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#52 Postby nathanc1969 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:17 am

My area has still not recovered from last February. I'm actually hoping for a mild wet winter this year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#53 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:57 pm

Seen enough blocking this Fall season to say with some confidence we are continuing the North Atlantic/Northeastern Canada blocking that has been prevalent since last winter. So far the Pacific hasn't let up but I'm sure sure it will periodically and if that blocking remains in place the cold air will have a good chance to move south this coming winter.

Emphasis again on the blocking, 2nd year Nina without it is a full blown torch, with it is a different story. Every Nina just about amasses really cold air somewhere in North America at some point. Just a matter of where it goes. In 2011-2012 it got stuck in Alaska and slid right on to Eastern Canada never allowed south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#54 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:10 pm

Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.

No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
Image

Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#55 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.

No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eIC14NM.jpg

Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sKc1r6e.jpg


What is this Winter looking like with the cAK?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#56 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Oct 21, 2021 6:51 pm

Don’t look at NOAA’s winter outlook unless you want to get depressed.

Or you’re Wxman57.

:lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#57 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:10 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Don’t look at NOAA’s winter outlook unless you want to get depressed.

Or you’re Wxman57.

:lol:


That's a Typical La Nina Outlook, they did the same general outlook last Winter as well.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#58 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:45 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.

No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eIC14NM.jpg

Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sKc1r6e.jpg


What is this Winter looking like with the cAK?


La Ninas do feature Northeast Pacific ridging that favors cold over Northwest North America. There's going to be a bout of cA at some point.

I don't fully trust NOAA winter forecast. They are too heavily reliant on ENSO and the percentages is too broadbrushed. In fact I would give them an F for last winter. The easiest forecast any winter in the world is to say cooler north warmer south.

Forecast
Image

Reality was nearly opposite
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#59 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.

No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eI%20C14NM.jpg

Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sK%20c1r6e.jpg


Blocking is such a beautiful thing for our winters. I think it takes a storm to blow up near Eastern Canada, get cut off and cause blocking around Greenland.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#60 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Nov 01, 2021 1:24 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.


The signal is there for early cold starting late November going into December. I've kind of had 2013 on my mind, which I'm sure no one in DFW wants to hear. The question will be if we can keep an active pattern with the cold.

I'm also optimistic about the winter outside of possible SSWs (which may not lead to cold) seems like the seasonal models like ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor a -EPO. This would keep us cool throughout the winter if it were to happen, especially if we can combine it with a +AO and ridging in the Southeast/East Coast. The caveat is that if you combine it with an SSW event with cold leaking into the Americas, you end up with your February 21s and December 1989s.


From a Ryan Maue tweet:

"The threat for climate-induced extreme winter storms again in Texas this winter remains very high & the state remains increasingly vulnerable to wobbling polar vortex "deep freeze". Double dip La Niña."
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