Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#261 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:26 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Right. It's better to have a Oshtok (sp?) low, which resides west of alaska into NE Russia. Lets hope things retrograde. Forcings just aren't in our favor right now.


There's actually some Okhotsk activity now. It's pumping up the Aleutian ridge. What is needed is for the low activity to progress into the Aleutians and slide the the ridge there to the east toward Alaska.

But the cold waters isn't allowing the ridge to head east keeping it in place. We need to send heat into Alaska and the Arctic. 1984-1985, last year both were able to generate the Aleutian low (early Jan 1985 the low came, last year it came in late November) to send heat flux and disrupt significantly the tropospheric PV thus breaking it down bottom to top, which then it collapsed from top down.

Image

Image

We need for the Aleutian low to happen. If we don't the AO isn't going to change and the EPO is going to win. That's the difference between a 2020-2021 and 1984-1985 good winter, vs the poor bunch 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2008-2009, and 2011-2012 type that the EPO just bulldozed and cold never came.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#262 Postby Cerlin » Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:15 pm

I won’t give up hope on next weekend until we’re in NAM range. If none of the mesoscale models bite, then I’ve lost hope. I’m trying to believe the weather will go against climatological patterns.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#263 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:13 pm

There is a very warm pool of water that surrounds the Gulf of Alaska, if only it can move northward . . .

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https://s10.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_global.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#264 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:39 pm

EPS and Monthlies is a blowtorch. Possible some record warmth for the US mid December after next weekend's cooldown.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#265 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:EPS and Monthlies is a blowtorch. Possible some record warmth for the US mid December after next weekend's cooldown.
I hope not
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#266 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:12 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPS and Monthlies is a blowtorch. Possible some record warmth for the US mid December after next weekend's cooldown.
I hope not


Many amateurs and forecasters, including myself, thought after Thanksgiving we would go towards a colder look for December. Not only is that not happening, it's near record warmth, and heading towards even more anomalous warmth. It's a hard pill to swallow but, we all fear it (if you like cold) the second year Ninas and +EPO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#267 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPS and Monthlies is a blowtorch. Possible some record warmth for the US mid December after next weekend's cooldown.
I hope not


Many amateurs and forecasters, including myself, thought after Thanksgiving we would go towards a colder look for December. Not only is that not happening, it's near record warmth, and heading towards even more anomalous warmth. It's a hard pill to swallow but, we all fear it (if you like cold) the second year Ninas and +EPO.
I hate it even more!!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#268 Postby harp » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:23 pm

This can’t last forever. Can it?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#269 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:51 pm

It’s so warm that a guy down the road from me has killed two rattlesnakes this past week. Lively in December as if it were summer. I know it’s early but things don’t look good. I’m really wondering if this will be a year with a winter that wasn’t.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#270 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:52 pm

harp wrote:This can’t last forever. Can it?


There will be breaks as all patterns do. However usually we can point to a teleconnection any given winter and look back and say 'oh okay so that was the dominant driver.' Right now it's looking like the +EPO is the big dominant driver.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#271 Postby WinterMax » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:
harp wrote:This can’t last forever. Can it?


There will be breaks as all patterns do. However usually we can point to a teleconnection any given winter and look back and say 'oh okay so that was the dominant driver.' Right now it's looking like the +EPO is the big dominant driver.


I love snow, but as I get older (almost 60) I enjoy spending time outdoors. Also as I get older, I seem to get cold easier, lol. So, I won't complain if it stays warm this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#272 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:53 pm

Next weekend is even trending warmer here :spam:

Yeah I dunno guys it's early but I'm not overly optimistic about anytime soon
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#273 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:05 pm

I have learned that patterns stay until forced to change, and we are basically screwed until then. Larry Cosgrove expected a back-loaded winter, and I bet that comes to pass.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#274 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:10 pm

DFW officially still hasn't recorded a freeze. If it doesn't happen tomorrow night or Sunday it may not happen until closer to Christmas if that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#275 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW officially still hasn't recorded a freeze. If it doesn't happen tomorrow night or Sunday it may not happen until closer to Christmas if that.
Christmas?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#276 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:23 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:DFW officially still hasn't recorded a freeze. If it doesn't happen tomorrow night or Sunday it may not happen until closer to Christmas if that.
Christmas?


Yeah we warm right back up even up here Friday near 80 again(which btw 80 is the all time December high here) and if you look at the apps temps are well above normal throughout the whole 10-14 days(remember average high is in the 50s around 60)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#277 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:20 am

Can we lock this thread and just move over to Spring? From the sounds of it, even though Winter Solstice is coming up, Winter will not be happening in Texas this year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#278 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:38 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Can we lock this thread and just move over to Spring? From the sounds of it, even though Winter Solstice is coming up, Winter will not be happening in Texas this year.

NO! Winter has not even started! And it's not even January or February yet!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#279 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:51 am

This progressive pattern is not conducive to bringing the cold air south to Texas. I don't see a pattern change in the works prior to Christmas. Meanwhile, let's all enjoy the much above normal temperatures and be thankful that we're not dealing with ice and snow. La NIna winters are generally warm and dry across Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#280 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:02 am

Looks bad right now.

But MJO still showing some life as the ensembles and OP are now trying to move it to P7 and out into the Pacific. That'll help with the EPO. In turn, the models are showing some Okhotsk ->Aleutian low activity that may start to disturb the TPV. But that's way out there if it still sticks around.
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