Texas Winter 2019-2020

[South Texas Storms]

Definitely agree with yall about needing more rain. It's been way too dry around here lately. San Antonio is now almost 10 inches below normal for the year. Hopefully we can get into a wetter pattern soon.

18z GFS looks interesting around the middle of the month. Widespread heavy rain event for the southern half of the state with the major ice storm across the northern half of TX. Has some ensemble support.

[Cerlin]

What’d I say, December 14th!!

I’m much more excited by the ensemble support than I am from the one GFS run. But when the main gfs has been showing fantasy land winter precipitation, it’s been in that 11th-15th range, where a trough with just enough cold breaks its way to Texas in the long ranges. I’m not thrilled about the setup it’s showing but it’s early and at least it’s showing SOMETHING at this point. It’ll for sure be gone by the 00z but I’ve been seeing these trends continue for the last couple of days.

[TheProfessor]

I'd absolutely hate the 18z GFS, good thing it's very hard to get something like that down here.

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS would be absolutely crippling, easily 2+ inches of liquid precipitation falling at frozen precip. This would make the 2013 Ice storm look like a tea party. I know yall want winter weather up there, but this isn't what you want. This wouldn't even be something I'd chase if I could lol. Good thing it's 300 hours out where things can drastically change, but I'd seriously think twice about rooting for a solution like this.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS would be absolutely crippling, easily 2+ inches of liquid precipitation falling at frozen precip. This would make the 2013 Ice storm look like a tea party. I know yall want winter weather up there, but this isn't what you want. This wouldn't even be something I'd chase if I could lol. Good thing it's 300 hours out where things can drastically change, but I'd seriously think twice about rooting for a solution like this.

No kidding. Ice like that is not fun.

[bubba hotep]

Oh lawd!



Too bad it is mostly freezing rain and almost certainly fake lol

[Brent]

Oh lawd!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120218/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

Too bad it is mostly freezing rain and almost certainly fake lol

Met winter off to a bang with unrealistic snow maps

[hamburgerman7070]

I would like to see a fantasy winter storm on the 0z or 12z instead of 18z, especially way out in lala land. Its been tough for that.

[Cerlin]

I would like to see a fantasy winter storm on the 0z or 12z instead of 18z, especially way out in lala land. Its been tough for that.

Me too...though I’ve seen this song and dance before. 00z will likely drop all idea of a winter storm

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pattern is looking a little bit better. Not buying the specifics in the LR, but the pattern is better than what its been as of late.

[bubba hotep]

Pattern is looking a little bit better. Not buying the specifics in the LR, but the pattern is better than what its been as of late.

Ensembles have started hint at some colder weather as we head towards mid-month but confidence remains low given the current pattern we are stuck in. The IOD continues to dominate the overall pattern and the MJO hasn't really been a big player, despite somewhat favorable looking RMM plots.



There is some support from the 18z GEFS for a winter weather event across Texas. The 06z GFS yesterday also had a winter wx event in the longer range. Maybe some smoke?

[hamburgerman7070]

I dont get excited unless the euro starts indicating a scenario for winterstorms. Gfs hasn't been doing good for a long time imo.

[Brent]

I dont get excited unless the euro starts indicating a scenario for winterstorms. Gfs hasn't been doing good for a long time imo.

yeah really hard to trust the GFS. Remember early December looked good too on it..

[bubba hotep]

I dont get excited unless the euro starts indicating a scenario for winterstorms. Gfs hasn't been doing good for a long time imo.

yeah really hard to trust the GFS. Remember early December looked good too on it..

There are about 8 EPS members that show some winter wx in DFW in the long range

[harp]

0Z GFS loses the ice storm completely. Poof! Gone! Not a trace of it. LOL!

[hamburgerman7070]

0Z GFS loses the ice storm completely. Poof! Gone! Not a trace of it. LOL!

It's replaced by a sprawling 1050mb high coming down the plains though . Timing isnt there for winter events yet.

[Brent]

0Z GFS loses the ice storm completely. Poof! Gone! Not a trace of it. LOL!

How totally shocking....not

[hamburgerman7070]

0Z GFS loses the ice storm completely. Poof! Gone! Not a trace of it. LOL!

How totally shocking....not

I would almost guarantee you that if we had more WAR ,it would be lights out for some....literally. Mid December.
Timing is paramount for sure around here.

[northjaxpro]

GEFS teleconnections

Strong + PNA forecast for December 7 thru to the middle of the month, along with a slightly negative to neutral EPO for the same period, + NAO for the same period.

This would favor significant cold for most of the Eastern CONUS primarily, especially into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, to the Northeast U.S. if the teleconnections come to fruition. Generally, + PNA set-up keeps the core of the coldest air east and northeast of Texas for the most part. So, we will see how it plays out.

[Brent]

6 or 7 out of 20 GFS ensembles with something wintry still seems to favor that timeframe around the 14th

Granted it's the GEFS