Texas Winter 2018-2019

[starsfan65]

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas? 12Z GFS has a low in Chicago above freezing with a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. That's about what the temperatures were this past weekend during my visit. I'm not seeing any major cold across Texas through December. Upper-level flow at hour 384 is not favorable for bringing any cold air down. I keep hearing about a sudden stratospheric warming that is predicted. Nothing showing up in the long-range GFS, at least. Of course, just last week, the GFS had a big snow storm across Texas on Christmas Eve. So much for that, but it just goes to show how far off the 2-week forecast can be. With any luck, it'll be warmer than the GFS is predicting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121912/gfs_T2ma_us_26.png

12z Euro EPS is full on North American torch by D15

Things could change from to then.

[Cerlin]

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas? 12Z GFS has a low in Chicago above freezing with a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. That's about what the temperatures were this past weekend during my visit. I'm not seeing any major cold across Texas through December. Upper-level flow at hour 384 is not favorable for bringing any cold air down. I keep hearing about a sudden stratospheric warming that is predicted. Nothing showing up in the long-range GFS, at least. Of course, just last week, the GFS had a big snow storm across Texas on Christmas Eve. So much for that, but it just goes to show how far off the 2-week forecast can be. With any luck, it'll be warmer than the GFS is predicting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121912/gfs_T2ma_us_26.png

That’s depressing and it’ll probably verify

[starsfan65]

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas? 12Z GFS has a low in Chicago above freezing with a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. That's about what the temperatures were this past weekend during my visit. I'm not seeing any major cold across Texas through December. Upper-level flow at hour 384 is not favorable for bringing any cold air down. I keep hearing about a sudden stratospheric warming that is predicted. Nothing showing up in the long-range GFS, at least. Of course, just last week, the GFS had a big snow storm across Texas on Christmas Eve. So much for that, but it just goes to show how far off the 2-week forecast can be. With any luck, it'll be warmer than the GFS is predicting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121912/gfs_T2ma_us_26.png

That’s depressing and it’ll probably verify

It will not verify!!!!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas? 12Z GFS has a low in Chicago above freezing with a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. That's about what the temperatures were this past weekend during my visit. I'm not seeing any major cold across Texas through December. Upper-level flow at hour 384 is not favorable for bringing any cold air down. I keep hearing about a sudden stratospheric warming that is predicted. Nothing showing up in the long-range GFS, at least. Of course, just last week, the GFS had a big snow storm across Texas on Christmas Eve. So much for that, but it just goes to show how far off the 2-week forecast can be. With any luck, it'll be warmer than the GFS is predicting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121912/gfs_T2ma_us_26.png

12z Euro EPS is full on North American torch by D15

We must be looking at different things. I see 52% of the ensembles showing us below normal. 16% of them show massive Arctic fronts plowing south.

[bubba hotep]

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas? 12Z GFS has a low in Chicago above freezing with a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. That's about what the temperatures were this past weekend during my visit. I'm not seeing any major cold across Texas through December. Upper-level flow at hour 384 is not favorable for bringing any cold air down. I keep hearing about a sudden stratospheric warming that is predicted. Nothing showing up in the long-range GFS, at least. Of course, just last week, the GFS had a big snow storm across Texas on Christmas Eve. So much for that, but it just goes to show how far off the 2-week forecast can be. With any luck, it'll be warmer than the GFS is predicting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121912/gfs_T2ma_us_26.png

12z Euro EPS is full on North American torch by D15

We must be looking at different things. I see 52% of the ensembles showing us below normal. 16% of them show massive Arctic fronts plowing south.

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018121912/east/eps_t2anom_50_east_61.png

I just took a quick glance at the 850 temp mean and the closed my laptop lol

Regardless, as I posted on the last page, models are going to be all over the place for this upcoming period.

[Brent]

the EPS mean definitely is below normal leading into New Years for the record

A few must have a little snow too for DFW

Christmas is definitely gonna be on the milder side though... likely one of the warmest days coming up

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z Euro EPS is full on North American torch by D15

We must be looking at different things. I see 52% of the ensembles showing us below normal. 16% of them show massive Arctic fronts plowing south.

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018121912/east/eps_t2anom_50_east_61.png

I just took a quick glance at the 850 temp mean and the closed my laptop lol

Regardless, as I posted on the last page, models are going to be all over the place for this upcoming period.

Haha understood. And I agree, until the SSW is fully underway and we are past Christmas Day, we likely won’t have much clue.

[Ntxw]

We must be looking at different things. I see 52% of the ensembles showing us below normal. 16% of them show massive Arctic fronts plowing south.

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018121912/east/eps_t2anom_50_east_61.png

I just took a quick glance at the 850 temp mean and the closed my laptop lol

Regardless, as I posted on the last page, models are going to be all over the place for this upcoming period.

Haha understood. And I agree, until the SSW is fully underway and we are past Christmas Day, we likely won’t have much clue.

The SSW won't connect with the troposphere until likely after the first week of January. It's got to happen first then we will wait and see the NAM/AO polar regions change.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just took a quick glance at the 850 temp mean and the closed my laptop lol

Regardless, as I posted on the last page, models are going to be all over the place for this upcoming period.

Haha understood. And I agree, until the SSW is fully underway and we are past Christmas Day, we likely won’t have much clue.

The SSW won't connect with the troposphere until likely after the first week of January. It's got to happen first then we will wait and see the NAM/AO polar regions change.

I was thinking first week of January but fair enough. 168 hours out will probably be where we start to see some clarity at the 500mb level.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, not sure if you knew this or not, but the 12zeuro showed the pv split day 8 and sends it into NA shortly after. It may be premature for that.I read it from twitter. Not sure if you would use alot of those cold analogs that people are using.

[wxman57]

My coworker, the "cold-mongerer", is saying the second week of January at the earliest for any real cold. Seems about right. However, since I'm working every day through the first week of January (including Christmas & New Year's Day), I won't have any time for biking in the above-normal temps. Last time I let two off at a time for Christmas and then send two to the AMS meeting in January. That leaves only two of us to cover two shifts a day. I still think that the general pattern (active southern storm track) may lead to snow events even down to Houston in Jan/Feb - more likely between January 15 and Feb. 21.

[Quixotic]

Count me as indifferent to SSWs unless we are in a predictive warm pattern. I know they disturb the PV but more likely than not, the benefit will go elsewhere than NA.

[gpsnowman]

It is not just Texas that is winter starved at the moment. Just saw the national map for today and no snow or below freezing temps anywhere outside of the mountains for highs today. It has been average to slightly above across the nation for a while it seems. Big rains again in the eastern portion of the U.S. again, nothing wintry. Midwestern cities above freezing. I have a feeling that when winter hits North America, it will hit hard. Not sure about Texas but the cold cities will get cold again.

[Ntxw]

The system from Dec 28-31 will have some colder air to work with. Right now snow is confined well to the north but obviously far enough away to at least be a peculiar. It will at minimum give us a little cold spell.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, not sure if you knew this or not, but the 12zeuro showed the pv split day 8 and sends it into NA shortly after. It may be premature for that.I read it from twitter. Not sure if you would use alot of those cold analogs that people are using.

As long as we get strong -AO/-NAO out of a split I don't think it matters where it goes.

[dhweather]

My coworker, the "cold-mongerer", is saying the second week of January at the earliest for any real cold. Seems about right. However, since I'm working every day through the first week of January (including Christmas & New Year's Day), I won't have any time for biking in the above-normal temps. Last time I let two off at a time for Christmas and then send two to the AMS meeting in January. That leaves only two of us to cover two shifts a day. I still think that the general pattern (active southern storm track) may lead to snow events even down to Houston in Jan/Feb - more likely between January 15 and Feb. 21.

Someone has hacked wxman57's account.

[orangeblood]

Haha understood. And I agree, until the SSW is fully underway and we are past Christmas Day, we likely won’t have much clue.

The SSW won't connect with the troposphere until likely after the first week of January. It's got to happen first then we will wait and see the NAM/AO polar regions change.

I was thinking first week of January but fair enough. 168 hours out will probably be where we start to see some clarity at the 500mb level.

Models now seem to be in better agreement on the cattle prod needed to get this pattern (hopefully) locked in as we transition into the heart of winter. It appears to be the deep anomalous PV currently over Northern Siberia...once this transitions out into the Northern Pacific, I believe the dominoes could begin to fall downstream to get things going in NA. Could be the system needed to set in motion a pattern that could lock in for several weeks in the heart of winter - as discussed, numerous analogs have been hinting at this for quite some time. Something to watch....

[bubba hotep]

CPC out with the JFM

[weatherdude1108]

Highs in the 70s for Christmas?!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 200925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Upper level trough is moving to the east. As the jet stream digs
into the base of this trough and the high pressure ridge over Baja
California amplifies, the pressure gradient over Texas is tightened.
Winds will be increasing throughout the afternoon with speeds up to
25 mph and gusts as high as 35mph. The highest winds will be
counties along and east of I-10 and I-37. These winds along with low
relative humidities will bring near critical fire weather concerns
for counties along the Rio Grande Plains. Winds decrease this evening
and with drier air in place and clearer skies, lows dip back down
into the upper 30s Friday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Friday and through the weekend will be pleasant with northwest flow.
The moisture returns Sunday and Monday and will keep temperatures
near or just above normal. There is still time to change your party
theme from Ugly Christmas Sweater to Hawaiian Luau (Mele Kalikimaka,
ya`ll) because Christmas day will be in the low 70s for most of the
area. No rain chances in the forecast until mid week. Only slight
chances for showers Tuesday (Christmas Day), with greater chances
Wednesday for counties east of I-35 as the next system and associated
front makes it way to the area.

[orangeblood]

CPC outlook Looks very similar to most of the analogs we've discussed on here lately.... is extremely encouraging considering their "EC" typically ends up being 6-8 Deg below normal