SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[jerryh421]

Front seems like it will be moving in faster... High here Wednesday is 44 and dropping now instead of 52. I wonder if it would be cold enough for snow instead of ice once temps get cold enough!

[jerryh421]

Another cold front on Wednesday will produce showers across southeast Texas. Temperatures will reach a high in the mid 50s before the front arrives and then fall during the day. We could be surprised with a few sleet pellets or snowflakes as the precipitation is coming to an end if the cold air aloft blows in faster than we expect.

from ABC13 weatherblog

[ksstormhunter]

Just posted projected snowfall outputs based on SmartModel output for midwest and southern states, under the link Feb 9-11 Smart SnowFall.

http://smartwxmodel.net

[ksstormhunter]

Just uploaded new forecasted snowfall totals and model output as of 13Z.

[jerryh421]

Did it put any around here? I don't understand where to find it.

[southerngale]

If that magic line could move a little south, I'd be cheering this thing on. They actually mention the white stuff!

Had a low of 27° this morning. Frost everywhere and car windows iced.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-082100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...OR ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO OPELOUSAS. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER

[jerryh421]

They posted one here but nothing about snow or sleet just rain! Come on!

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's latest:

Another arctic front heading for the region.

Discussion:

Warm air advection is underway early this afternoon with temperatures rising through the mid 50’s at this time under gusty ESE winds. Moisture will rapidly increase late this afternoon and this evening with skies becoming generally cloudy this evening. Arctic front is currently nosing into the panhandle where Amarillo is 11 with NW winds gusting to 43mph producing a wind chill of -13. Moisture advection should be great enough after midnight to support the formation of light rain and drizzle first along the coast and then spreading inland. Upper level trough over New Mexico will swing across TX Wednesday with lift being maximized in the morning hours over the region roughly the same time as the front reaches the area. Expect widespread light to moderate rainfall along and ahead of the front with most locations averaging less than .50 of an inch of rain. Strong cold air advection will ensue post front with temperatures falling from the 60’s into the 30’s in a few hours after the front passes.

Next item of concern is how quickly the temperature falls to freezing and will there be any moisture behind the front. Model guidance continues to show a period of post frontal rainfall lingering about 3-4 hours behind the front. Given upstream temperatures in the lower 10’s over the panhandle, feel the models are a tad too warm with the surface temperatures behind the front and may be too slow with its passage, but I think they may be too wet post front with rainfall ending with the front. Forecast soundings show a shallow low level freezing layer entering the area around 100pm Wednesday afternoon with a warm nose above the surface freezing layer. This supports a P-type of freezing rain. Suspect areas along and north of a line from Huntsville to Brenham to Giddings to LaGrange may see a 1-3 hour period of freezing rain/drizzle early Wednesday afternoon before the precipitation ends. Surface temperatures will likely be right at or just below freezing which supports icing of mainly elevated objects. This does not look like a significant event and ice accumulations if any will be below 1/10th of an inch. However, even small amounts of ice can make driving extremely dangerous and extreme caution should be used in the Huntsville to College Station to Austin area Wednesday morning through late afternoon especially on any bridges and overpasses.

Southward over the rest of the area, expect just a very cold rain with rainfall ending prior to the onset of freezing temperatures. Most bridges will likely dry before the temperature falls below 32, but a few could still have wet spots that freeze early Wednesday evening.

Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20’s across the entire region Thursday morning with highs on Thursday only in the lower 40’s. Expect Friday morning will also see a hard freeze before a warming trend begins. Not to sound like a broken record, but the same precautions residents took last week should be taken again this week to protect plants and pipes.

Finally a pattern change appears in store for the area starting this weekend and continuing at least for the next 7 days as long range guidance shows a zonal flow aloft scouring the arctic air out of the US and limiting is southward expansions from Canada. This will result in temperatures warming into the 70’s for highs next week with some locations possibly reaching the 80’s especially SW sections.

[vbhoutex]

Currently 29.5 and dropping with freezing rain/drizzle at my house with icing beginning. Not a good scenario shaping up for the afternoon unless this precip stops VERY SOON!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a cold rain tonight but would be nice to see a few flurries . Looks like yet ANOTHER hard freeze possibly in the low 20s tomorrow night. Approaching 25 freezing nights this season, most I can remember in a long time.

[southerngale]

Hard freezes for tonight, tomorrow night, and Friday night forecast. I haven't kept count, but I know there's been more than 25 freezes here. I'm not talking about down at the airport, where it's warmer, but where I live. I don't know about there. It seems like this winter, it freezes at night more than it doesn't. Maybe 25 hard freezes. LOL It's been nuts! I can't even open my closet without my flip-flops telling me how much they miss me. I miss them too. Soon, my friends, soon.

[southerngale]

NWS LCH just issued a Winter Weather Advisory here.

Strange... it mentions Lumberton, but not my area, but it showed up on my point forecast. And neither area is in the Lakes area, which is where it says the wintry mix is possible.

Anyway, they're worried about ice on bridges and overpasses.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
234 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKES REGIONS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...RAIN MAY CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET...
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

TXZ201-100000-
/O.EXB.KLCH.WW.Y.0003.110209T2100Z-110210T0000Z/
HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LUMBERTON
234 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: RAIN MAY BEGIN MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS: LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS: ANY ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH WATER FROM RAINFALL
WILL FREEZE ONTO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS OR ICY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

[Flyinman]

Get out your snow shoes!! There are very very small flurries here in The Woodlands!

[southerngale]

Get out your snow shoes!! There are very very small flurries here in The Woodlands!

I've got my snow boots on!

Not because I think I'll need them for snow, though. They are soooo warm... my feet and lower legs can't even feel the cold when I'm outside in them, no matter how cold it is.

[southerngale]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
257 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

LAZ029>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-100800-
AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARKSVILLE...DERIDDER...OAKDALE...
VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
257 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...

DESPITE RAINFALL ENDING BEFORE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
THIS EVENING...WHAT MOISTURE REMAINS ON ROADWAYS FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL MAY FREEZE AND IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION IF TRAVELING OVERNIGHT.

"DESPITE RAINFALL ENDING BEFORE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
THIS EVENING..."

It's already freezing here and it's still raining lightly. They tend to gear everything toward the Louisiana folks, it seems.

[Flyinman]

Sunny here now. Well, glad I survived 2 Winter storms this year

[vbhoutex]

Um, it looks like we have more clouds moving in on the SJ from Mexico. They don't appear to be high clouds either. I'm thinking we won't clear after all tonight, especially since HGX isn't calling for clearing till early am in their 5:50 pm aviation update. That may keep the temps where they are or at least above 20f for most of the area. Temp seems to have settled at 26F for the time being. I am wondering is there is any moisture in the incoming from the SW to be squeezed out??? I guess we can wish. I know one thing for sure. It is too cold!!!

[vbhoutex]

Unbelievably, I am having very light snow flurries here at the house again.

[Jagno]

Special Weather Statement

They tend to gear everything toward the Louisiana folks, it seems.

Hmmmm, maybe because they are located in Louisiana and this advisory was for Louisiana. LOL

It's still drizzling here as well. I wanted so badly to see a few flurries but it just wasn't there.

[BigB0882]

Special Weather Statement

They tend to gear everything toward the Louisiana folks, it seems.

Hmmmm, maybe because they are located in Louisiana and this advisory was for Louisiana. LOL

It's still drizzling here as well. I wanted so badly to see a few flurries but it just wasn't there.

He was saying that because he is in Beaumont, TX and the NWS of Lake Charles issues everything for that part of TX. He was just saying they tend to focus more on the Louisiana side of things even though they are responsible for a hefty population in SETX.