Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

euro run shows houston is ok right? by that map houston will be ok.

[South Texas Storms]

euro run shows houston is ok right? by that map houston will be ok.

Euro shows rain changing to freezing rain in Houston at the end of the run.

[Ntxw]

It's obvious. There will be a major storm on Christmas. Now it's just a matter of where in the south and in what form....

The leading edge jet split in arctic baroclinic zones usually buries the I-40 to I-20 corridors during the hooker type SW negative tilt situations like this. As the parent upper features come through last is the best chance for areas closer to the coast. Feb 2011 was a prime example.

[Ntxw]

But it's kind of funny the GFS sort of went to the Euro and the Euro sort of shifted to the prior GFS . Middle ground is always best and the major players are still there.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

euro run shows houston is ok right? by that map houston will be ok.

Run ends as Houston starts getting frozen precip

[Ntxw]

euro run shows houston is ok right? by that map houston will be ok.

That euro snowfall map mostly is just snowfall totals. The mixing to the south doesn't seem like it's included from the precip type charts.

[iorange55]

But it's kind of funny the GFS sort of went to the Euro and the Euro sort of shifted to the prior GFS . Middle ground is always best and the major players are still there.

So...six inches of snow instead of 12? I’ll take that.

[Rgv20]

It's obvious. There will be a major storm on Christmas. Now it's just a matter of where in the south and in what form....

The leading edge jet split in arctic baroclinic zones usually buries the I-40 to I-20 corridors during the hooker type SW negative tilt situations like this. As the parent upper features come through last is the best chance for areas closer to the coast. Feb 2011 was a prime example.

Feb 2011 was not fun down here....due to the freezing rain I lot power for about 18hrs.

[Ivanhater]

It's obvious. There will be a major storm on Christmas. Now it's just a matter of where in the south and in what form....

The leading edge jet split in arctic baroclinic zones usually buries the I-40 to I-20 corridors during the hooker type SW negative tilt situations like this. As the parent upper features come through last is the best chance for areas closer to the coast. Feb 2011 was a prime example.

Always learning from you for winter synoptics!. What I see from the models is an active SW flow. Just need to get the stubborn SE ridge to weaken lol. Otherwise I like the active pattern

[Ntxw]

Also notice the latest Euro's 1053mb HP in Wyoming



Nothing but barbed wire and dirt from Canada to MX

[sphelps8681]

Also notice the latest Euro's 1053mb HP in Wyoming

http://i67.tinypic.com/rt3nde.png

Nothing but barbed wire and dirt from Canada to MX

But also look at that creature charging it's way toward Texas from CO/NMX border.

[EnnisTx]

This is shaping up to be a Christmas to remember or forget!!!!

[Ntxw]

I dont get excited about hurricanes hitting me 9 days out, not doing that with this system either!

On a serious note, wxman57 earlier today gave us all a warning to be prepared for something disruptive. He is a well respected met on here and when he gets serious about a threat (hurricane or winter) everyone stops to listen. Jokes aside, you just don't see him give such advice unless the threat was real.

There are circles beyond just the threads about fun and excitement as this is potentially a real problem for many travelers, many of our posters have made notice of plans. It's now more than just a curiosity, people will have to make decisions.

[EnnisTx]

I dont get excited about hurricanes hitting me 9 days out, not doing that with this system either!

On a serious note, wxman57 earlier today gave us all a warning to be prepared for something disruptive. He is a well respected met on here and when he gets serious about a threat (hurricane or winter) everyone stops to listen. Jokes aside, you just don't see him give such advice unless the threat was real.

There are circles beyond just the threads about fun and excitement as this is potentially a real problem for many travelers, many of our posters have made notice of plans. It's now more than just a curiosity, people will have to make decisions.

Already making plans and preparing the family here. The best part is we had already scheduled to have a generator installed on Wednesday morning next week when we moved into our new place.

[bubba hotep]

[CentralTxAggie]

I dont get excited about hurricanes hitting me 9 days out, not doing that with this system either!

On a serious note, wxman57 earlier today gave us all a warning to be prepared for something disruptive. He is a well respected met on here and when he gets serious about a threat (hurricane or winter) everyone stops to listen. Jokes aside, you just don't see him give such advice unless the threat was real.

There are circles beyond just the threads about fun and excitement as this is potentially a real problem for many travelers, many of our posters have made notice of plans. It's now more than just a curiosity, people will have to make decisions.

Just relocated from South Austin to Fischer, TX. We have no fireplace, so Hubby was looking at portable indoor propane heaters at local store and sales person already knew about this possible winter event. I was kind of surprised. So word is getting out.

[TarrantWx]

When do the models show the precipitation starting in the DFW area? I've been so busy with work I haven't had time to look at the models the past few days. I'm supposed to fly home from Orlando next Friday evening, so I'm wondering if I need to start looking for flights on Thursday instead.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking forward to brief rain chances tomorrow. The EWX is being cautious about next weekend.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 152125
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
A low latitude upper level low will track east across TX Saturday
into Saturday night. Pacific moisture will stream northeast across
Mexico late tonight and arrive at the doorstep of South Central Texas
by daybreak Saturday. Moisture and instability will thus be mostly
elevated early Saturday, but should rapidly deepen Saturday
afternoon. A cluster of thunderstorms may become embedded in the
broader areas of rain over far east counties Saturday evening as
models develop a coastal trough east of VCT. Rain chances should
taper quickly west to east by late Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
No rain is depicted for Sunday and a mostly stable SW flow aloft
will partially dry out the area for Sunday night and allow temps to
return to above normals. Upper troughing to the west continues to
amplify as the Eastern half of the forecast area destabilizes again
by Monday. Some light coastal troughing could end up generating a
light overrunning pattern and could see some patchy fog or drizzle as
well; for now am not confident as to when and where. The upper
trough shears NE and moves across mainly N TX Tuesday with a weak
front to dry the air out over our forecast area for Wednesday.
Temperatures should remain near or slightly above normals Tuesday and
Wednesday. Above normal temperatures under a flat zonal pattern
aloft will continue into Thursday, but strong front is expected to
arrive late Thursday night. Deterministic models for Friday indicate
a significant portion of upstream energy to promote a cold rainy day
for Friday into Friday night as the cold air advection pattern
continues into Friday night. This pattern could potentially bring the
ingredients from a winter mix for parts of the area next weekend.
For now will assume an all rain forecast through next Friday night.

[orangeblood]

While a storm appears more likely at this point, the track is still very uncertain...would not be surprised if the axis shifted south on subsequent model runs

[Cpv17]

While a storm appears more likely at this point, the track is still very uncertain...would not be surprised if the axis shifted south on subsequent model runs

I remember the GFS showing light accumulations of snow over West TX at about this same forecast period for the last winter weather event we had and it ended up being a bit conservative on the totals and was wrong with the placement of the snow. Ended up snowing more towards S and SE TX than it did out west and the Euro never saw it coming at all really. For the Euro to be that bullish this far out after not even seeing it at all with last weeks system raises an eyebrow for me.