Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

Before we get to the storm system around Christmas, we need to keep an eye on the weather tomorrow, especially across south and east Texas as a potent disturbance tracks across the region (coming out in a slight negative tilt). Depending on how far north the warm front can get, we could see some severe weather across this area, especially close to the coast.

[Cpv17]

Before we get to the storm system around Christmas, we need to keep an eye on the weather tomorrow, especially across south and east Texas as a potent disturbance tracks across the region (coming out in a slight negative tilt). Depending on how far north the warm front can get, we could see some severe weather across this area, especially close to the coast.

Yep, could even be some tornadoes mixed in from what I’ve been hearing.

[Yukon Cornelius]

:double: 12z euro snow map

http://i66.tinypic.com/210gb3b.jpg

Move it up north a little bit and we’re good.

[weatherdude1108]

Before we get to the storm system around Christmas, we need to keep an eye on the weather tomorrow, especially across south and east Texas as a potent disturbance tracks across the region (coming out in a slight negative tilt). Depending on how far north the warm front can get, we could see some severe weather across this area, especially close to the coast.

Yep, could even be some tornadoes mixed in from what I’ve been hearing.

SPC said they could possibly upgrade it to marginal, at least, for a three hour window of opportunity if the warm front moves further inland northwest from the coast.

SPC AC 151728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of south and east
Texas Saturday and east Texas and Louisiana Saturday evening and
overnight.

...Southeast Texas coastal area...

Model consensus is that the upper low over northern Mexico will
accelerate and eject northeast through the Southern Plains later
Saturday afternoon and overnight in response to an upstream wave,
while an offshore warm front lifts north and approaches the
southeast TX coast. Stronger forcing for deep ascent will remain
well north of warm sector, but a weak surface cyclone is forecast to
develop and move northeast along the TX coast Saturday night.
Current indications are that the richer low-level moisture and warm
sector will remain just offshore with low 60s F dewpoints along the
coast. However, if the surface low and warm front can develop a
little farther northwest, there will be a small window (2-3 hours)
where a small warm sector with upper 60s F dewpoints could spread
into southeast TX including the Galveston area later Saturday night.
This scenario would support at least a marginal threat for surface
based supercells and possibly a tornado in a high shear/low cape
environment. Given the uncertainty regarding inland advance of the
warm sector, will maintain less than 5% severe probabilities this
update, but a marginal risk category might be warranted in later
outlooks.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I think a Marginal Risk area is needed based on the latest high-resolution model guidance. We'll see if they upgrade it tonight.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looks like it could continue with another run of a major storm. SW trough digging and the Arctic front is making through Texas

1048mb into Wyoming which is stronger than 12z's 1042 and closer to euro

[Ntxw]

Freezing rain, sleet breaking out in Central Texas Friday 22nd afternoon on hour 168

[Ntxw]

Temps at DFW are 30F and falling with a mess along I-35 Friday night. Heavy freezing rain in Austin

[texas1836]

18z GFS looks like it could continue with another run of a major storm. SW trough digging and the Arctic front is making through Texas

1048mb into Wyoming which is stronger than 12z's 1042 and closer to euro

24" of snow in McKinney would be great. It appears it's getting close.

[Lagreeneyes03]

When do the models show the precipitation starting in the DFW area? I've been so busy with work I haven't had time to look at the models the past few days. I'm supposed to fly home from Orlando next Friday evening, so I'm wondering if I need to start looking for flights on Thursday instead.

Definitely try for Thursday. Don't even chance it.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep another big winter storm on the 18z GFS. More ice and less snow than the Euro.

[Ntxw]

Yep another big winter storm on the 18z GFS. More ice and less snow than the Euro.

There are a lot of similarities between the two models now overall. The difference is the temp profiles which I don't expect anything close to reality until midweek.

[Cpv17]

Once again on the GFS the cold has a hard time making it to SE TX. Low 40’s and rain for most of the area through the 23rd.

[Ntxw]

Verbatim from the 18z GFS an area from Austin to Northeast Texas would be entombed in ice, quite a bad run for the I-35 corridor of a crippling ice storm.

[South Texas Storms]

More than 24 hours of freezing rain across central Texas this run. Yikes.

[Brent]

Euro over the gfs please

All that ice is no bueno

[Portastorm]

Yeah, that 18z GFS turns the City of Austin into a glacier.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Once again on the GFS the cold has a hard time making it to SE TX. Low 40’s and rain for most of the area through the 23rd.

That won’t happen

[Ntxw]

Still icing heading into Christmas Eve

[South Texas Storms]

Gets very close to icing in SA as well this run. I suspect the freeze line might end up being southeast of where the GFS has it.