SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[vbhoutex]

Well, the dreary cold weekend did not materialize. It wasn't a warm weekend, but it wasn't wet either thankfully. Now Thanksgiving evening and beyond may be a different story.

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge, on September 12 around dawn we had about 3 inches of rain with an outer squall band of Ike. Since then we have had 1.5 inches of rain, including the mere 0.18 today. Some decent rains would be appreciated before the cold arrives.

[Jagno]

Well, the dreary cold weekend did not materialize. It wasn't a warm weekend, but it wasn't wet either thankfully. Now Thanksgiving evening and beyond may be a different story.

Oh my! Black Friday and a 50% chance of rain is what wrecker companies live for in their greatest dreams. This will be a tremendous mess on top of already horrible road construction going on across our main interstate. Temperature wise it won't be too bad with daytime highs near 70 and nighttime lows in the lower to mid 40's.

Hope everyone has a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving.

[vbhoutex]

Now locals are predicting almost 80ºf tomorrow!!!! I at least like it to be cool for Thanksgiving. By Sunday our highs are supposed to be only in the 50's with plenty of sunshine, which means we will definitely be getting cold if they are right(anything below 60º for a high is cold in Houston! ).

[vbhoutex]

We had/have the warm weather and are still waiting on the cold. I know the models are showing it and the OCM's are even talking about it, but I am becoming a skeptic after 2 busts on colder weather here. I was wearing shorts sitting on the patio yesterday at our Thanksgiving family gathering. MInd you I am not a cold weather person-I have lived along the GOM too many years for that-but to me there is just something inherently incorrect about it not being at least cool on Thanksgiving.

[CajunMama]

This darn front! 20 miles...that's how close i am to the rain that was pretty much stationary today.

[vbhoutex]

Wow! The second front came through today and what a difference. The winds kicked up to around 25 mph sustained and were gusting to 40 mph. Definitely made it uncomfortable outside for us warmth lovers. Now down to 54ºf with a high of 60ºf earlier today. Looks to be an up and down week with an 80ºf high mid week before the next big front. Going to have to water a little to keep from getting to dry even though we are in dormant season now.

[southerngale]

It was freaking cold last night! Nearest Instaweather/Weatherbug station had a low of 29° and even a low of 32° down at the airport.

[LaBreeze]

Big frost covered everything around here - what we call "cajun snow".

[southerngale]

It was much warmer last night. I was out running errands yesterday evening and last night in shorts! I was cool and comfortable.

We ended up hitting a low of 59° - 30° warmer than the night before.

Good ol' Southeast Texas weather!

[vbhoutex]

It was much warmer last night. I was out running errands yesterday evening and last night in shorts! I was cool and comfortable.

We ended up hitting a low of 59° - 30° warmer than the night before.

Good ol' Southeast Texas weather!

And with that front blowing through here tonight we will be 30º back the other way by Friday am.

Currently 78ºf in Houston with 20 mph sustained gusting to 31 mph. Good for that "blown away" look!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Decent t-shower for December. A few minutes of heavy rain, gusty winds, maybe to 30 mph, and frequent lightning.

My lawn is grateful.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Monday severe near Louisiana?

Not sure the quality of moisture return...

40 knot low level jet off the Gulf and turning with height between 850 mb and 500 mb, with some suggestion of diffluent flow approaching Louisiana from Texas.




Looks like 850 mb and 700 mb RH are high enough that the cap probably isn't overwhelming

GFS is a less amplified, and a bit slower, Canadian seems to be between the two.

SPC not impressed.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST THU DEC 04 2008

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 /MON. 12-8/...BUT
DIFFERENCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE START OF DAY 6 ONWARD
SUCH THAT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY DEPICTION OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREATS.

IN THE MEAN TIME...BOTH MODELS FORECAST A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC DAY 5. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...MAINTAINING LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
CONUS. AS THE WRN TROUGH DIGS RAPIDLY SEWD TOWARD THE SRN
PLAINS...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
RESULTING NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE COULD ALLOW AMPLE DESTABILIZATION
TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY
5...BUT ATTM EXPECT THAT DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT.

[southerngale]

Nothing severe, but some pretty hefty thunderstorms last night... lots of thunder and lightning and radar estimates 1 - 2 inches in the area. And just like that, much cooler today with some pretty chilly nights ahead.

I bet Frick uses her laptop blanket warmer tonight!

[vbhoutex]

We all may be using our laptop blanket warmers, if we have one. Per Jeff Lindner:

Temperatures warming very slowly under overcast deck and cold air advection.



All area temps. remain in the 40’s as of 1000am with a 39 still at Crockett. Cloud mass moving SW across the area…however even upstream temps. under sunny skies still in the mid 30’s around Dallas with nosing 850mb ridging resulting in continued cold air advection.



Looking for some fairly cold lows tonight if skies can clear out. Given dewpoints falling into the mid 20’s northern areas now which should filter south supports near freezing temps. in many areas. Saving factor may be the center of the high stays to our north allowing winds to stay up and temps. from bottoming out. Friday night we may not be as lucky…however S TX coastal troughing becomes established and clear skies may cloud over during the afternoon and evening saving parts of the area from a freeze. Tough call so for now will go with near freezing tonight along and N of US 59 and in the typical cold areas such as Angleton. Freeze may be more widespread Saturday morning…will have to see how things line up on Friday.



Will need to continue to maintain close watch on far range extended as models continue to show potential for significant arctic air intrusion into the US around the middle of the month. Additional factors appear to be coming into play to add more confidence that a significant…possibly…record breaking cold air event could be in the making. Model signals are showing similarities to historical cold air events in Dec 1989 and Dec 1983…close watch on this is needed.

[CajunMama]

My electrip lapblanket isn't working well. I've ordered another one from walmart. It'll be here next week BUT i do have my little space heater that i had had at work. I've already used it!

[vbhoutex]

Double post-also posted in Texas winter thread. Jeff Lindner is buying into the arctic surge.

Much to speak about this afternoon...major storm system progged for early next week and now growing confidence in a significant arctic air event in about 10 days.

Will tackle the Monday-Wednesday storm first. Polar high will move eastward Sunday allowing weak return flow to develop. Return flow will greatly increase Monday as strong trough develops over the NW US in the polar jet and cut-off low off the CA coast moves E across TX. Sub-tropical jet overhead along with rapid increase in low level Gulf moisture points toward increasing rain chances Monday afternoon with chances peaking Tuesday. Indication continue to suggest a period of severe potential Tuesday as strong polar front and surface low blast into the area with increasing moisture. Details are still working out...but the threat remains for a decent squall line on Tuesday.

Strong polar front blast into the Gulf Tuesday night...will go with gale conditions all waters Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface low cranks up over the MS valley. Expect frequent 45+mph gust over the waters and 35-40mph inland Tuesday night within the post frontal cold air advection regime. Cold polar high builds into the region with clouds clearing out Wednesday morning....ECMWF is slower and does not clear the clouds until late Wednesday. Will go with the coldest guidance on Wednesday with highs only in the lower 50's under sunny skies and 40's if clouds linger. Sub-freezing temps. expected most areas Thursday morning before gradual warm up begins.

Mid December:

I have seen many times before models suggestive of historical cold air outbreaks...but it is rare when the pattern is so apparent in all the guidance and the guidance has remained so consistent. GFS is showing the upper air pattern, but is all messed up at the surface...as is usually the case with shallow dense arctic air. ECMWF continues to show a classic McFarland upper air blocking pattern at 500mb with Polar vortex over Canada backing WSW and sharp intense ridge axis plowing northward through AK into the Arctic Circle. This allows a massive trough to be carved across the entire US with very cold Siberian air mass unleashed across the North Pole and then straight southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Million dollar question is how cold is the air mass when it leaves Siberia and begins its southward treck and how much snow is on the ground over the N and C plains to slow modification of this air mass. Confidence continues to grow that a significant possibly record breaking cold air event will occur in the December 17-22 time frame. Will also need to continue to dabble with the idea of frozen precipitation in the post frontal air mass...

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff-hot off the press.

Significant forecast changes required this evening as complete 12Z guidance suggest much colder/wetter pattern Tuesday through Thursday morning.

Will maintain status quo forecast through Tuesday and frontal timing. Changes needed Wednesday into Thursday as there is now general agreement that the main upper trough will lag well behind the surface front resulting in a period of clouds and rainfall Wednesday into early Thursday. Model QPF is on the lower side, however surface temps. could be near freezing in some areas by late Wednesday or Thursday morning to support a mix of rain and sleet. Feel that most of the rainfall should end before temps. fall toward freezing, however cannot rule out a few ice pellets as the rainfall ends. There should be no accumulation of anything given warm ground temps. and generally light amounts to begin with.

Given expected clouds, light rain, and strong cold air advection on Wednesday will go will slowly falling temps through the 40's into the upper 30's by late afternoon as temp. is wet bulbed due to dry air advection at the lower levels resulting in evaporational cooling of the surface temp. Highs Thursday may only reach the low to mid 40's under continued cold air advection.

Addition of clouds and precip. Wednesday night may save most of the area from the freeze discussed this morning...we shall see what the next round of model runs has to say.

This could be a small taste..a teasing if you will... of the building Siberian air mass with current temps. around -55F this evening in northern Siberia...

I hate wet and cold without the snow!!!

[Tireman4]

Wxman57 ( and others),

I am running the Jingle Bell 5 Miler on Saturday. The race starts at 2 pm, so I am thinking that the race temperature will around 70 degrees. Will there be flow from the Gulf that will allow the humidity to be in place at that time. Second, the front will be at least a day away on Sunday, correct?

[PTrackerLA]

Rain/Snow mix Wednesday night and Thursday!

ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE
357 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 946 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS 21 TO 37.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 22 TO 36 IN THE MORNING.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.


Not expecting any accumulations, but bring on those FLAKES!