Well looks like I was wrong last week and we now have a freeze warning tonight with a low temp of 30 forecast. Appears to be perfect radiational cooling setting up for tonight.
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-HARDIN-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...
VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...
SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...
CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...
DEWEYVILLE
225 PM CST WED DEC 12 2012
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY.
* TEMPERATURE...28 TO 32 DEGREES.
SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
0 likes
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Low temp was 32 this morning with a good amount of frost so we have our first official freeze on the books.
0 likes
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Had a low of 32F here at the house this am also. Plenty of frost around also. That is our second freeze here at the house and officially. Both were this week. I am hoping that the return to zonal flow shown by GFS this am is just a flip flop. Would prefer to keep the pattern change we have since it is Winter and we should have Winter weather, instead of what we had last year.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Looks like a warm and possibly wet Christmas 
, but then much colder right after. Hopefully these systems speed up to give us some cold on Christmas.
, but then much colder right after. Hopefully these systems speed up to give us some cold on Christmas.
0 likes
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Jeff Lindner's latest email:
Hold on to you hats and wigs!!!Numerous advisories issued for Thursday.
Red Flag Warning issued for all SE TX counties
Gale Warning for the coastal waters
Low Water Advisory for Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel
Fire Weather:
Powerful storm system and associated cold front will bring very strong winds and a significantly drier air mass to the region by early Thursday morning. Model guidance is showing winds 1000 ft above the surface in the 40-55mph range and some of this wind energy will be transported down after mid morning when stronger mixing develops. Widespread wind speeds of 20-35mph with gust to 40-45mph will be possible across the entire region from roughly 900am to 300pm. Winds are well into RFW criteria.
Other factors for critical fire weather would be very dry air and this will also be pouring into the area from the north with dewpoints falling into the 20’s and RH falling into the 18-25% range by late morning and continuing at those values through early evening.
Of more marginal concern is the state of the fuels and vegetation. Recent rainfall on Sunday did drop a good 1-2 inches over some areas and the KBDI values reflect the areas that saw this rainfall. Primary concern is for areas west of I-45 where rains this past weekend where lightest and rainfall has been low over the past few months. Fine fuels have been cured by freezes last week, but larger fuels are in better shape with 100-hr values fairly decent in this area. While fine fuels are largely ready to burn, temperatures in the 50’s may mitigate fire starts. Expect any scattered showers tonight to offer little affect on the finer fuels with amounts less than .25 of an inch.
Of concern and the main reason for the RFW is the very strong winds and potential for power line arching providing an ignition source. Any fire that does develop will be driven by very strong winds resulting in conditions very hard to contain. Air support will be minimal due to strong low level wind shear. Biggest threat looks to be grass fires as long lived crown runs look unlikely given the decent moisture in the larger fuels. There should be no outdoor burning or open flames on Thursday!
Winds should fall to below 10mph rapidly Thursday evening by 800pm and while very dry/low RH is expected on Friday (lower than Thursday), winds will be much weaker.
Marine:
Strong winds will drive current slightly above average tides out of the inland bays. ET surge modeling for Galveston Bay shows water levels falling 1-2 feet below MSL by midday Thursday under near gale force winds. The threat for vessel groundings will be increased in shallow areas and in the Houston Ship Channel. Winds should relax after midnight along the coast and veer ENE on Friday allowing tidal recovery.
Very hazardous marine conditions will be in place by early Thursday morning with seas building into the 7-12 foot range under sustained winds of 25-35mph with frequent gust over 40-45mph.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
43F here in W. Houston this am. 
Winds are steady ar 20mph with higher gusts with the highest 47mph so far. Fropa around 1:30am provided 0.02" of rain. It is RAW outside and is going to stay that way today even with the sun shining.
Winds are steady ar 20mph with higher gusts with the highest 47mph so far. Fropa around 1:30am provided 0.02" of rain. It is RAW outside and is going to stay that way today even with the sun shining.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
I'm pretty sure the NWS Lake Charles just said there's a chance of winter precip on Christmas night?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
337 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED WELL INTO THE 30S
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW AREAS AT OR NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO EXPAND OVER
THE SE U.S. WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PLEASANTLY MILD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S. GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT SO MIN
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL.
EXTENDED...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HANDLING OF NEXT FRONTAL
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT WEAK SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFYING AS IT PASSES OVER THE REGION ON LATE TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR WINTER PRECIP BEFORE
MOISTURE CUTS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF COLD AIR. COOLER DRIER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
I highly doubt this is likely given we'll be in the 70s on Christmas day but the mere mention of it being nearby is pretty rare around here!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
337 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED WELL INTO THE 30S
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW AREAS AT OR NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO EXPAND OVER
THE SE U.S. WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PLEASANTLY MILD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S. GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT SO MIN
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL.
EXTENDED...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HANDLING OF NEXT FRONTAL
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT WEAK SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFYING AS IT PASSES OVER THE REGION ON LATE TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR WINTER PRECIP BEFORE
MOISTURE CUTS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF COLD AIR. COOLER DRIER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
I highly doubt this is likely given we'll be in the 70s on Christmas day but the mere mention of it being nearby is pretty rare around here!
0 likes
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Jeff Lindner's latest thoughts:
Powerful upper level storm system will bring widespread impacts to TX Christmas Morning.
Next upper level storm system to affect the state is currently diving down into the western US this morning and will begin to move eastward into TX tomorrow. At the surface low level warm air and moisture advection is underway across the state while to our north a shallow cold front is moving southward. Expect this shallow boundary to reach the area tonight and then stall between I-10 and the coast on Monday. Much more powerful system to be approaching from the west Monday night/ Tuesday AM. Southerly winds will continue to pump moisture into the area today into Monday even as the weak boundary stalls. Not expecting much rainfall in the warm air advection pattern with moisture mainly below 800mb.
Surface boundary begins to lift northward as a warm from late Monday as strong upper level system moves into TX. Do not think the warm front will move rapidly northward with developing rainfall north of the boundary helping to roughly maintain its position in the I-10 to HWY 105 corridor into Tuesday morning. Surface low pressure developing over EC TX early Tuesday will bring a punch of dry air eastward out of central TX in the form of a dry line. Powerful mid level jet will rotate through the base of the trough over the state with shear values on the order of 60kts and building instability in the warm sector south of the warm front between midnight and 1000am Tuesday. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop after midnight to 300am Tuesday some of which will become severe.
A review of severe weather parameters for early Tuesday morning suggest a highly sheared low level environment with low level winds backed to the SE to ESE near the warm front veering to WSW in the mid levels. Both speed and directional shear will be in place over the area and expect storms that develop near and south of the warm front will have a tornado potential. There is some possibility that storms will go into a line along the advancing dry line during the morning hours with a damaging wind threat. We are still about 40-48 hours from the event and some fine tuning is likely on the warm frontal position and where the greatest severe threat will be found on Tuesday morning.
Note: Such strong storm systems in the winter time in the deep south and after dark can have some significant severe weather and tornadoes. Such tornadoes tend to occur in the early morning hours and result in higher fatalities than spring time tornadoes mainly because they occur when residents are asleep.
Dry line will punch rapidly through the area by noon on Tuesday with a quick drying of the air mass. Strong cold front will lag behind the dry line and cross the area in the late afternoon. Very strong winds will onset once again behind this boundary…although not likely as strong as last Thursday…still could see a few gust to 40mph. Temperatures will tumble from the 60’s/70’s prior to the front quickly into the 40’s behind the front. A band of snow will likely develop over N TX within the comma head portion of the upper level storm system. Some accumulation of snow will be possible from the DFW area NE into OK and AR on Christmas Evening and night. No snow is expected across SE TX as moisture will be scoured out of the area prior to the thermal column being cold enough for snow.
Strong winds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning should keep lows mainly near freezing north of US 59. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach 50 degrees under continued cold air advection. Surface high pressure will build over the area Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. With very low dewpoints (in the 20’s) should see a widespread freeze for all areas except the immediate coast. Even the urban heat areas may see a light freeze this time around. Colder locations could see lows in the mid 20’s for Thursday morning.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Monday evening-Tuesday Morning):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_0700.gif
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
905 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
241300-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
905 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS...
A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON CHRISTMAS EVE...BEFORE COMING TO
A HALT AT THE COAST AROUND DUSK. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT...
ENDING WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL REVERSE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE...REACHING THE PINEY HILLS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY DAWN ON CHRISTMAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE TRAVELING WARM FRONT.
SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS
OF 3 AM AND 9 AM. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 9 AM AND NOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON CHRISTMAS...A TEXAS-PANHANDLE CYCLONE
WILL SWING EASTWARD...DRAGGING A CANADIAN FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE THE FORM OF LINES ALIGNED ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE
CANADIAN FRONT.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-241300-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
649 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS AND HOW LARGE THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME THE ENTIRE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN END OF
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.
IN ADDITION THERE IS ALSO THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITH A
MORE ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS
VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES...WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS TIDE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IS SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS ON TUESDAY.
$$
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
905 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
241300-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
905 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS...
A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON CHRISTMAS EVE...BEFORE COMING TO
A HALT AT THE COAST AROUND DUSK. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT...
ENDING WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL REVERSE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE...REACHING THE PINEY HILLS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY DAWN ON CHRISTMAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WITH THE TRAVELING WARM FRONT.
SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS
OF 3 AM AND 9 AM. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 9 AM AND NOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON CHRISTMAS...A TEXAS-PANHANDLE CYCLONE
WILL SWING EASTWARD...DRAGGING A CANADIAN FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE THE FORM OF LINES ALIGNED ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE
CANADIAN FRONT.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-241300-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
649 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS AND HOW LARGE THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE. AT THIS TIME THE ENTIRE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN END OF
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR OUR AREA SO
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.
IN ADDITION THERE IS ALSO THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITH A
MORE ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS
VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES...WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS TIDE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IS SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS ON TUESDAY.
$$
0 likes
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-240400-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
407 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AIRMASS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OF CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
IN THE MORNING HOURS. DRY AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ALSO PUSH THE
ACTIVITY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
STILL THERE ARE ENOUGH CONDITIONS WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MAIN THREAT
EXISTS FROM THE HOUSTON AREA NORTHWARD TO A COLLEGE STATION TO
LUFKIN LINE ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND TO BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
348 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THIS OCCURS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SHOULD THESE FACTORS ALIGN
TOGETHER...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 4 AM AND 10 AM. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS A
SECONDARY THREAT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS AND UPDATE THE
THREAT ACCORDINGLY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-240400-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
407 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AIRMASS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OF CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
IN THE MORNING HOURS. DRY AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ALSO PUSH THE
ACTIVITY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
STILL THERE ARE ENOUGH CONDITIONS WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MAIN THREAT
EXISTS FROM THE HOUSTON AREA NORTHWARD TO A COLLEGE STATION TO
LUFKIN LINE ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND TO BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
348 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THIS OCCURS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SHOULD THESE FACTORS ALIGN
TOGETHER...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 4 AM AND 10 AM. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS A
SECONDARY THREAT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS AND UPDATE THE
THREAT ACCORDINGLY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
It continues to look like we will have a severe weather/possibly tornado outbreak during the early morning hours in SE TX. Please be aware of the weather at all times and be prepared to act quickly should severe weather approach. This threat is being talked about both in the private and public(NWS) weather firms as strongly likely.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
This is what our local weatherman posted on Facebook.
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/9364 ... herthr.jpg
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/9364 ... herthr.jpg
0 likes
-
CYCLONE MIKE
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Parts of SE LA are now under a moderate risk of severe weather chance. Also mention the growing possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak for Christmas day as well for these parts. Not saying it won't happen but usually when severe weather outbreaks get hyped so much for us down here they either happen further north (not wishing on folks in MS), die out as they get to and cross Mississippi river into baton rouge, or never materialize at all. Most of the time it's the systems they say maybe one or two storms may reach severe limits but not expecting any widespread severe weather. Then next thing you know tornados are dropping down around us.
0 likes
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Looking at the gorgeous weather we are having in Houston right now one would not expect to see the storms we are expecting overnight. I know the warm front has not made it North of I-10 here in Houston yet as our skies are clear blue and sunny. Makes me wonder if the earlier progs are going to happen or not. I do have to admit I haven't had a chance to check the afd today, so I may be far from being right in my wonderings.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
-
Nikki
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
- Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Well said vbhoutex........I was wondering the same thing myself....its just so pretty here today! I am paying attention though, I can promise you that!
0 likes
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5674
- Age: 58
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The AFD from NWS-HGX...(still voicing concern)
DISCUSSION...
STILL A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST
BASED ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD 10
DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX WITH 60S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. IN FACT GALVESTON BROKE A
RECORD HIGH TEMP WITH 76. GALVESTON MAY EVEN REACH ANOTHER RECORD
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHRISTMAS FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT REACHING KCLL TO KJAS LINE BY 12Z TUE PER GFS. THE
NAM/ECMWF PUSH THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. MODELS ALL BRING
A STRONG JET INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH ONE INITIAL JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE AREA AT 06Z TUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MORE AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PUSHES INTO C TX
AND E TX FROM 12-18Z TUE. GIVEN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SFC LOW TO FORM ALONG WARM FRONT AND
MOVE ALONG IT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A QUESTION WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BUT MODELS STILL SHOW AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST. ONE OF
THE OTHER ISSUES WILL BE CAPPING FROM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BOTH
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING IN THE 800-700MB LAYER FOR
KIAH AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM KCXO/KUTS/KCLL
SHOW MUCH WEAKER CAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM
ROTATION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE CAP HOLDS AND HOW MUCH
THE CAP INHIBITS SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. STILL
ANY STORMS THAT CAN BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ROTATE
AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THINK SPC DAY 1 AND 2
OUTLOOKS REALLY HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. GENERALLY THIS WILL BE NORTH
OF I-10 MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND FROM 3-4AM THROUGH NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THINK THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHERE THE WARM
FRONT MOVES AND HOW STRONG CAPPING BECOMES.
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113877&hilit=&start=20
DISCUSSION...
STILL A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST
BASED ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD 10
DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX WITH 60S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. IN FACT GALVESTON BROKE A
RECORD HIGH TEMP WITH 76. GALVESTON MAY EVEN REACH ANOTHER RECORD
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHRISTMAS FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT REACHING KCLL TO KJAS LINE BY 12Z TUE PER GFS. THE
NAM/ECMWF PUSH THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. MODELS ALL BRING
A STRONG JET INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH ONE INITIAL JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE AREA AT 06Z TUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MORE AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PUSHES INTO C TX
AND E TX FROM 12-18Z TUE. GIVEN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SFC LOW TO FORM ALONG WARM FRONT AND
MOVE ALONG IT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A QUESTION WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BUT MODELS STILL SHOW AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST. ONE OF
THE OTHER ISSUES WILL BE CAPPING FROM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BOTH
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING IN THE 800-700MB LAYER FOR
KIAH AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM KCXO/KUTS/KCLL
SHOW MUCH WEAKER CAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM
ROTATION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE CAP HOLDS AND HOW MUCH
THE CAP INHIBITS SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. STILL
ANY STORMS THAT CAN BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ROTATE
AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THINK SPC DAY 1 AND 2
OUTLOOKS REALLY HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. GENERALLY THIS WILL BE NORTH
OF I-10 MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND FROM 3-4AM THROUGH NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THINK THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHERE THE WARM
FRONT MOVES AND HOW STRONG CAPPING BECOMES.
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113877&hilit=&start=20
0 likes
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Even with our 78º and sunny skies the local mets have been sounding alerts for the severe weather outbreak to begin after midnight. I've got the ice chests full, propane tanks filled, vehicle full and non perishable eat to fix foods on standby.
0 likes
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28976
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Hope you guys in SW LA are ok. I know you have had at least one TOR warning already this am. Here in Houston we have gotten almost nothing so far. It looks like all the energy is off to our N and E. That is good for us and not good for our friends. Be safe.
0 likes
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013
Same here VB. We've barely had an precip and the wind is basically just a light breeze so far. Hope it continues to be mild. Merry Christmas!
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests