Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS and Control are "winter weather" looking for a lot of Texas

[Brent]

GFS drops the hammer with the coldest air of the season so far mid week next week(Wednesday/Thursday). Likely DFW freeze if verified. Highs also struggle to get much above the mid 40s a couple of days

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS looks chilly for the second week of December. First freeze will be possible for a large part of the state if it verifies.

0z GFS Ensembles look wet too, with about 2 inches of rain generally along and east of IH-35 over the next 2 weeks.

[Brent]

0z Euro much wetter, quite a bit of rain at the end of the run(mostly next Tuesday into Wednesday), starting to turn colder at the very end of the run next Wednesday

Well over an inch of rain at DFW and Austin and still raining when the run ends

Much colder air is moving in to the Panhandle at 240 hours.

[Ntxw]

2009 is now all over the December analogs on the super-ensembles. I think the guidance is starting to reel in the storms systems as we get closer. -EPO too so cold should coming along nicely with these systems. Texas had multiple winter storms that month from start to end (Houston to Dallas to OKC)





Guidance is actually trending stronger with NW NA ridging which means potential for arctic blasts. -NAO in this case will help to slow the pattern down and we may see lagging SW energy. What a fun time it looks like!!!

[orangeblood]

And the legendary DEC 1989 showing up ...but 2009 appears to be the best analog with similar Solar Min/East QBO as big drivers in the Arctic

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: And the legendary DEC 1989 showing up ...but 2009 appears to be the best analog with similar Solar Min/East QBO as big drivers in the Arctic

Okay, when I see an orangeblood posting I know there must be a winter threat on the horizon! Good to see you, dude.

[Portastorm]

Here's the thing I remember about that Dec 09 system earlier in the month ... the one which induced sleet/snow to fall in Austin and inches of snow to fall in Houston ... that morning after here in Austin, I had to fly to Houston for work. The Southwest pilot told us even before we left the ground that it would be a bumpy ride as we were literally flying through the upper level low. He wasn't kidding. Turbulent as heck! That night I sat in my hotel room next to Hobby Airport and watched the snow fall in Houston as folks were gleefully dancing in the parking lot. It was amazing!

[Ntxw]

That threat may be closer than we think. Mid next week has a powerful storm system and another behind it. Model watch alert.

Meanwhile the AO

[orangeblood]

Although the Teleconnection Indices between Dec 2009 vs Dec 2017 appear very similar over the coming weeks, the snowcover this year compared to 2009 at the same time is much more expansive.

Nov 26, 2017


Nov 26, 2009

[Ralph's Weather]

I have not paid much attention over the holiday weekend, but looks like I need to get myself in gear now.

[CaptinCrunch]

@ Orangeblood

Yes the snowcover is greater, but also the cold pool over Canada is much more than 2009. If you look at the 2017/18 Winter outlook for Canada about 77% of the Territories are expecting a colder than average winter with the majority being in the central and NW parts, only the lower SW (Vancover) and the eastern seaboard are expecting average to warmer than average winter.

2009/10 (El Nino) Winter NTX got it's first official freeze on Dec 6th, and last freeze was March 21st. for a total of 46 for the season.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for the first couple of weeks of December do raise an eyebrow. The afternoon Updated Day 8+ and Day 11+ continue to advertise the possibility of the coldest air of the Season settling across the Plains into portions of Mexico.

While some have worried La Nina would ruin our winter weather chances, I would argue that there are always surprises when we see such a significant pattern change via the ensembles. Someone may see a surprise or two with this first real shot of very cold Canadian air where they are very far ahead in snowfall across the Canadian Prairies compared to the last 2 to 3 winters.

[Ntxw]

We have not seen a good alignment of the indexes as progged in a long time. Probably 2009/2010 with staying power. Usually it is the EPO or something that takes grip. I like how the ensembles are looking. I would say risk for a frozen precip dramatically increase in this type of pattern than usual. The low solar/qbo combo think may be reason to believe the Nina climo might be muddled.

[Ralph's Weather]

We have not seen a good alignment of the indexes as progged in a long time. Probably 2009/2010 with staying power. Usually it is the EPO or something that takes grip. I like how the ensembles are looking. I would say risk for a frozen precip dramatically increase in this type of pattern than usual. The low solar/qbo combo think may be reason to believe the Nina climo might be muddled.

Getting a bit excited about this. Like you said it has been a while since we have been able to couple blocking across the northern tier of the continent. Add some added juice from the SW and we are talking ideal conditions overall. Now to see if things can time out well for wintery precip, but this pattern indicates more than temporary cold which is usually the missing ingredient here.

[Brent]

After a top 5 warmest November's I'm all aboard a cold and snowy December

[EnnisTx]

It's Looking interesting over the next several weeks. What are the thoughts for a winter weather event in the next two weeks? type/amounts?

[South Texas Storms]

Latest Euro Weeklies continue to advertise the potential for an active December. It's indicating a few cold shots as well. Looks like we could have a fun time tracking the weather over the next several weeks!

[Ntxw]

It's Looking interesting over the next several weeks. What are the thoughts for a winter weather event in the next two weeks? type/amounts?

Odds usually are very low anyway and it will likely be some luck needed. Patterns looks to yield snow more than ice and it features strong upper lows creating weather. But again odds are always low so far south.

That said, you'd rather see such a pattern over more ridging overhead or the dreaded zonal flow.

[Brent]

0z GFS buries the Panhandle next week, some spots near a foot of snow around Amarillo, some light snow even makes it towards Wichita Falls