Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

Will need to monitor for Severe thunderstorms with all modes of severe weather possible across Texas New Years Day extending East into Louisiana on Monday.

Indeed, sir. That is the most real and immediate concern. Severe wx for much of Texas looking more and more likely, unfortunately.

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[gboudx]

As you can all see, I'm having some luck adjusting the southern U.S. thermostat upwards for next week. Perhaps in another day or two I'll be able to get rid of that nasty Arctic air completely.

If there's anyway I can help let me know. Since I'm further upstream from you, I can try and halt it at the Red River. Durant could be cloudy and in the 30s, while DFW is basking in sunshine and the 70s.

[bubba hotep]

After flipping through some analogs, the current +PDO seems to be the wrench in things, if you are looking for another big cold snap with this forecasted -EPO. Dec '83 was during a +PDO but most others were during -PDO periods - '49, '51, '62, '64, '73, '75, '13. The next step would be to see if there is any trend of -EPO events not delivering a cold dump during a +PDO but time to start pregaming for LSU vs Louisville.

Over the last few days there was a pretty big warm signal in the ensemble spread with the operational runs on the colder edge of the spread, so the potential was always there for the ops to trend warmer. We don't need bitter cold to get snow in DFW, just a better timed ejection of the energy out of the West. So models, stop cutting things off and dumping snow on Northern Cali.

[bubba hotep]

Will need to monitor for Severe thunderstorms with all modes of severe weather possible across Texas New Years Day extending East into Louisiana on Monday.

Indeed, sir. That is the most real and immediate concern. Severe wx for much of Texas looking more and more likely, unfortunately.

https://s19.postimg.org/vbq3u9cmb/image5.pngimgurl

This has certainly been flying under the radar and no one wants any holiday trouble after Dec 26 of last year. Here is the latest thinking from FWD:

[Portastorm]

Well, this excerpt from the 3-7 day forecast discussion is from the experts themselves at the NWS Weather Prediction Center. Pretty much lays it all out there:

BY NEXT THURS/FRI/SAT... EVERYTHING REVOLVES AROUND THE
PROGRESSION OF UPPER DYNAMICS FROM THE WEST MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND
WHETHER WE ARE DEALING WITH MULTI-STREAMS OR A PHASING SYSTEM
WITHIN STEADY SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS RATHER IMPORTANT... AS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT GENERALLY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
ACROSS NRN FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO
OVERRUN INTO THE THEN ESTABLISHED COLD SECTOR OVER THE EAST/SOUTH.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS MEANS MOISTURE EASILY REACHING THE
COLD SECTOR FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSIVE AREA OF FROZEN PRECIP...
WHILE THE SHEARED-OUT SOLUTIONS MEANS A SUPPRESSED SOLUTION OF
MAINLY RAIN AND NOT OF MUCH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD. THERE IS
JUST TOO MUCH SPREAD AT THIS POINT TO PUT STOCK IN ANY SOLUTION.
THIS LATE WEEK SCENARIO WILL EASILY EVOLVE AND DEFINITELY BEARS
WATCHING.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

After flipping through some analogs, the current +PDO seems to be the wrench in things, if you are looking for another big cold snap with this forecasted -EPO. Dec '83 was during a +PDO but most others were during -PDO periods - '49, '51, '62, '64, '73, '75, '13. The next step would be to see if there is any trend of -EPO events not delivering a cold dump during a +PDO but time to start pregaming for LSU vs Louisville.

Over the last few days there was a pretty big warm signal in the ensemble spread with the operational runs on the colder edge of the spread, so the potential was always there for the ops to trend warmer. We don't need bitter cold to get snow in DFW, just a better timed ejection of the energy out of the West. So models, stop cutting things off and dumping snow on Northern Cali.

THte thing is, in Neutral cold or weak Nina Years a positive PDO creates strong SE ridges which is not a feature in the upcoming days. The models are either missing something or we are entering a very anomalous situation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That high building off the coast of Mexico is ruining our chances of snow. That thing is the WORST.

[hriverajr]

I will say this. Thats a serious ridge building up into Alaska, and it appears it will continue to amplify. My only issue is once again the lack of really strong surface pressure. High pressure is actually located just off the southern Alaska coast at about 1041. Short range models do not indicate it strengthening too much at this point, and there have been no major pressure rises. I have not looked at medium and long range models as they seem to be all over the place.

Not even thinking about precip chances, unless we get stronger high pressure we won't have much of a delivery mechanism, so it could get cold like a couple of weeks ago, but it would not have much staying power imo. I'll be watching how things go in real time. Sometimes.. you don't need the models to get a decent idea on things 3-5 days down the road.

[starsfan65]

I will say this. Thats a serious ridge building up into Alaska, and it appears it will continue to amplify. My only issue is once again the lack of really strong surface pressure. High pressure is actually located just off the southern Alaska coast at about 1041. Short range models do not indicate it strengthening too much at this point, and there have been no major pressure rises. I have not looked at medium and long range models as they seem to be all over the place.

Not even thinking about precip chances, unless we get stronger high pressure we won't have much of a delivery mechanism, so it could get cold like a couple of weeks ago, but it would not have much staying power imo. I'll be watching how things go in real time. Sometimes.. you don't need the models to get a decent idea on things 3-5 days down the road.

The Storm system is still 4000 miles away.

[Ntxw]

I will say this. Thats a serious ridge building up into Alaska, and it appears it will continue to amplify. My only issue is once again the lack of really strong surface pressure. High pressure is actually located just off the southern Alaska coast at about 1041. Short range models do not indicate it strengthening too much at this point, and there have been no major pressure rises. I have not looked at medium and long range models as they seem to be all over the place.

Not even thinking about precip chances, unless we get stronger high pressure we won't have much of a delivery mechanism, so it could get cold like a couple of weeks ago, but it would not have much staying power imo. I'll be watching how things go in real time. Sometimes.. you don't need the models to get a decent idea on things 3-5 days down the road.

It's been a really strange winter season regarding surface ridges. The only OP guidance that really drives the surface pressures to town is the JMA. It's really weird you have such strong 5h Alaskan/GOA ridging and can't muster a 1050Hpa surface ridge. But there is cold waters in the GOA itself though, however which is what drove the huge +PDO uptick in October and November.

Which btw the Nina (which may not get the qualification due to lack of 5 consecutive trimonthlies) looks about toast, it's little more than a band barely cool anomalies. We may be heading into warm neutral pretty soon.

[Portastorm]

I'm not too concerned yet, but I have to admit that if both the GFS and Euro are showing the milder/drier solutions by their Sunday night overnight 0z runs ... then I think it'll be time to "bag it" and move on. It is wild to think about how much change we have seen in the operational runs in the last 48 hours. These models ... their trolling us!

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[ronyan]

Yeah the models could be losing the cold in the medium range. The 12 GFS does have my location below 50F for 78 hours so it is cold still.

[lrak]

I'm not too concerned yet, but I have to admit that if both the GFS and Euro are showing the milder/drier solutions by their Sunday night overnight 0z runs ... then I think it'll be time to "bag it" and move on. It is wild to think about how much change we have seen in the operational runs in the last 48 hours. These models ... their trolling us!

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that looks like wxman57 hacking the models

i have a feeling it's going to get cold in my area, 50 for a high is COLD if you've lived in the mild to extreme heat for as long as I have

[Brent]

Euro looks similar to the 0z so far... not much to write about through Thursday morning

Temps in the low/mid 30s Thursday afternoon but dry dry dry.

[Ntxw]

Euro has light snow/flurries with the ejecting shortwave Friday. GFS had small bouts in Oklahoma and Arkansas

[srainhoutx]

Differences via the GEFS and the ECMWF solutions over 00Z runs. Expect continued volatility until about Tuesday/Wednesday.

[wxman57]

If I can be serious, for a moment, I'm looking at the current and projected 500mb flow across Alaska & Canada (GFS). Yeah, that's a pretty big ridge building over Alaska, but look at the flow pattern, look where the air in western Canada is coming from - the Pacific. In past severe cold events across Texas, there wasn't a big ridge over Alaska, it was farther east and tapping into Siberian air across the Pole. During the very cold winter of '76-'77, it was unusually warm over Alaska. I remember hearing a story of U.S. troops on winter survival training in Alaska suffering from heat exhaustion in their Arctic gear.

As I always say, look at the source region of the cold air. It's really not cold in NW Canada or Alaska. The colder air is well to the east over north-central Canada, and even then it's not nearly as cold as with the Arctic outbreak a few weeks ago. True, we don't need extremely cold Arctic air to get frozen precip across Texas, but given the recent warmth across the Central Plains and the northern extent of the snow cover, it's going to be hard to get enough deep cold air over Texas for snow over the next week or so. It's possible that a cross-Polar flow will develop in the coming weeks, allowing some extremely cold Siberian air to head south into the U.S., but I don't see that happening over the next 7-10 days.

That said, the models are going to have a very tough time with the current and predicted weather pattern. Don't get your hopes up for any freezing/frozen precip until it appears in the 2-3 day model guidance, there is agreement in all global models, AND model runs are consistently showing such precip each run. For now, I expect we'll see some colder air this coming week and next, but it may not even be cold enough to produce a freeze down to Houston. I'm not saying we won't see a freeze, just that there is no guarantee of one. As for frozen precip across SE TX, I'm not concerned/excited about it for the next 7-10 days.

[gpsnowman]

Good post. For me, I don't care if we see teens again or not. Just a couple days hovering around freezing or just below with some precip is a-ok. And I am looking forward to the rain on New Years Day. Nothing severe of course but it would be nice to hear some thunder.

[bubba hotep]

Day 2 northward expansion to include a good portion of the DFW area. The 12z Euro looks pretty juicy for tomorrow night.

[JDawg512]

Day 2 northward expansion to include a good portion of the DFW area. The 12z Euro looks pretty juicy for tomorrow night.

Yes I the Rain Miser wanted to ring in the New year with a bang, but don't worry, these storms shouldn't get out of hand. What better way to enjoy the 1st of the year with natural fireworks..