Texas Winter 2018-2019

[northjaxpro]

The 00Z GFS North American Hemispheric 500 mb analysis is an image to behold for yours truly, even if it is way out 384 hours. Wow! Impressive ridging U.S.West Coast/Western Canada north to Alaska , impressive ridging across Greenland and the massive PV and upper trough overwhelming most of the continent by the end of this month.

Normally, I do not take much of anything too serious that far out. However, given the fact that the signs of the pattern change are evident now, and agreement is reasonably good within 264 hours already with the reliable models, I think the 384 hour run may not be so far fetched after all folks.

For those who really love the idea of real serious cold air, the pattern carved out on the 384 hour is as close to ideal as you will see it for the continent.

[harp]

The 00Z GFS North American Hemispheric 500 mb analysis is an image to behold for yours truly, even if it is way out 384 hours. Wow! Impressive ridging U.S.West Coast/Western Canada north to Alaska , impressive ridging across Greenland and the massive PV and upper trough overwhelming most of the continent by the end of this month.

Normally, I do not take much of anything too serious that far out. However, given the fact that the signs of the pattern change are evident now, and agreement is reasonably good within 264 hours already with the reliable models, I think the 384 hour run may not be so far fetched after all folks.

For those who really love the idea of real serious cold air, the pattern carved out on the 384 hour is as close to ideal as you will see it for the continent.

Sounds good. Now, will there be a moisture feed as well?

[northjaxpro]

Well, there could be possible interaction of the southern and polar jets to create opportunities for winter weather or even winter storms across the Southern tier of the U.S. It is always predicated on timing of course with regards of when the potential interactions could occur. Just something we all will have to monitor in the coming weeks.

[harp]

FV3 GFS not impressive. Canada is loaded with arctic air, but it doesn't get transported south.

[Cpv17]

FV3 GFS not impressive. Canada is loaded with arctic air, but it doesn't get transported south.

It’s been doing that for a while now. Staying locked up north.

[Cpv17]

Another boring Euro run.

[gboudx]

Interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011100/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png

Can you interpret this please?

taking it at face value just a cold front for most of us, snow is pretty far north

Maybe he’s referring to the Cat 3 low pressure bearing down on Canada.

[Ntxw]

FV3 GFS not impressive. Canada is loaded with arctic air, but it doesn't get transported south.

It’s been doing that for a while now. Staying locked up north.

Yes the coldest air on Earth is sitting over Canada/North America and not Asia/Europe. Shows the SSW worked. Now lets see if consequent model runs delivers the cold air.

[dhweather]

Interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011100/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png

Can you interpret this please?

Cat 3 in the gulf, of Alaska.

But what I'm referring to is that Canada appears to be getting loaded with cold air. The million dollar question is will something transport it south, or will wxman57's wall hold. PV dropping into the Hudson Bay, signs of the already discussed cross polar flow.

All said, it's over 5 days out, so it is a suggestion at best.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, the GFS for the last 24 hours or so has been consistent in the long range. Doesnt mean it will happen, but its good that it's consistent. Like i mentioned yesterday though, the PV is positioned well for an arctic plunge not too far out. So, once the PV is positioned well, the rest should follow if it remains in place. I think by monday we can determine if we can take the models more seriously.

[wxman57]

Yes, the GFS has been consistent in the long range - consistently bad. Meanwhile, my wall along the Canadian border is growing taller by the day.

[Ntxw]

Yes, the GFS has been consistent in the long range - consistently bad. Meanwhile, my wall along the Canadian border is growing taller by the day.

For the sake of World Peace I say to you, Mr. Heat Miser..

"Tear down this wall!"

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yes, the GFS has been consistent in the long range - consistently bad. Meanwhile, my wall along the Canadian border is growing taller by the day.

For the sake of World Peace I say to you, Mr. Heat Miser..

"Tear down this wall!"

https://images2.imgbox.com/b9/74/wj7Xn%20nGh_o.gif

Oh its coming down, or heads will roll!

In all seriousness, 384 GFS is always a joke.... EXCEPT THIS TIME.

[orangeblood]

We’re in record SSW territory at the prime time of year with the main daughter vortex setting up shop over Hudson Bay....It appears something special is brewing!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Forecas55175638/status/1083639937315016704

[Ntxw]

We’re in record SSW territory at the prime time of year with the main daughter vortex setting up shop over Hudson Bay....It appears something special is brewing!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Forecas55175638/status/1083639937315016704

A similar SSW in 2004 yielded a fairly chilly Feb! (monthly temps similar to Feb 2015) and a 3"/Valentines day snowfall at DFW (winter of 2003-2004).

[bubba hotep]

One of the things to watch closely, is where does the high lat blocking setup? The Pacific evolution certainly favors split flow in the longer range but if we get a -EPO/+PNA then we will get stuck in the dreaded NW Flow and that is what the 00z GEFS is showing. Based on the Pacific, I think something like late Feb into early March '15 is in the cards but we need the ridging to setup with more of a relaxed PNA look. Also, we need the PVL to stay up in Canada, if it sets up shop farther south towards the GL then it will be very hard for systems to amp up as they come out of the SW. There are a lot of moving parts but I didn't really like the 00z GEFS look, dry cold sucks.

[Toadfrog]

Considering the cold bottled up in Canada, it will need to break loose in time. I just have that feeling in me ol' bones that Texas will get a bite of it soon. Bring it......I don't want to mow my grass in January.

[wxman57]

Snow in NE TX at hour 264. This time it's for real! I buy it!

http://wxman57.com/images/snow.JPG

[bubba hotep]

Snow in NE TX at hour 264. This time it's for real! I buy it!

http://wxman57.com/images/snow.JPG

That has a late February '15 feel to it. The first system for N. Texas to watch is the 19/20th +/- and then we start the temp step down with each additional system having potential, with the right track.

[bubba hotep]

Once the GEFS opens the gates, they might not close!