North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

#41 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:49 pm

Latest accucrap for Halloween.

Friday, Oct 31
Partly Sunny
Sun and some clouds
High: 70 °F
Low: 51 °F

#42 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:20 pm

I feel like I need to get on record one more time saying that I don't believe a cold or warm Halloween has any relationship at all to a cold or warm winter overall. Now I'm leaving this thread alone. :cold:

#43 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 10:41 am

somethingfunny wrote:I feel like I need to get on record one more time saying that I don't believe a cold or warm Halloween has any relationship at all to a cold or warm winter overall. Now I'm leaving this thread alone.

You could always add this to your sig line so that it's always visible. :shrug:

#44 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:54 am

Everything still looks to be on track for the cold front to arrive in the D/FW area some time late this evening or pre-dawn Wednesday morning. Temps look a little cooler behind the front so I'm going with upper 60's to lower 70's for highs the rest of the week, with night time lows in the mid to upper 40's with lower 50's to the SE of the area. Models show a reinforcing shot of cold air by Sunday and another one in here by Wednesday night of next week. I think we have seen the last of the 80 degree temps for awhile after today, may see some low 80's by 2nd week of November for 2 or 3 days then back to the mid to lower 70's.

Now for Halloween, With the next 2 shots of much cooler air Oct 31 looks to be upper 60's for highs with 20% chance of showers. Trick or Treat low's will start off in the upper 50's and drop thru the evening, with light winds from the NW it will feel much cooler (40's).

Yes, things are looking up for a old fashion winter here in North Central Texas, to many signs in the weather patteren as well as the signs in nature that point to a colder/wetter than normal winter. If you havent thought about your wood pile for the fire place, now's the time to stock up, you'll be glad you did.

:froze:

Extremeweatherguy · #45 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 5:45 pm

18z GFS = Coldest Halloween in years.

^^Very early Halloween Morning^^

^^Halloween afternoon^^

#46 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:03 pm

If this map plays out then I'm about 10 degrees off on highs and lows, mid 50's for highs and lower 40's for Trick or Treating, and with that low right over NTX it could very well bring our first freeze (32) of the season, that would be 22 days earlier than the avg date of the 1st freeze (Nov 22). :cold:

#47 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:04 pm

THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON ARE IN STORE THE END OF THE WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING...SPOTS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
MAY SEE THE MERCURY DIP BELOW 40F. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL MAKE FOR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND PATCHY FROST IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THOSE FOR WHOM FROST IS CRITICAL SHOULD
MONITOR FORECASTS AND OTHER PUBLIC PRODUCTS/STATEMENTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE/SKY/WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE FURTHER
ASSESSED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES

Extremeweatherguy · #48 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:04 am

Latest 00z GFS Halloween prediction...

Morning of Oct. 31st:

Evening of Oct. 31st:

And for laughs and giggles, here is the current GFS snow cover map for Halloween evening...

white = 1" or less
light blue = 1-2"

#49 Postby **somethingfunny** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:31 am

Road trip to Wichita Falls?

#50 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:31 am

A FEW RURAL AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND IN THE WESTERN ZONES
WILL SEE THEIR COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MERCURY DIPS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL
VALUES ON FRIDAY (75 DEGREES AT DFW AND 77 DEGREES AT WACO FOR
HIGHS). A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND THE FRONT WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINFORCE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

#51 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:07 pm

Cold front came thru around 1pm and what a difference, strong north wind and temps went from near 80 to 55 at this time. Some light rain has been falling but not as much as I had expected.

#52 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:17 pm

Chilly morning to start the day, had a low of 39 here at the house and frost on the cars and roof tops. I just love the fresh cold air smell, gets me ready for the fall and makes me want to light the fire place.

Extremeweatherguy · #53 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:54 pm

So much for a chilly Halloween. If the latest GFS run gets its way, then Halloween will probably feature near or above average temperatures across the southern plains with breezy south winds.

#54 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:25 am

SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO CANTON WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY SINCE THIS WOULD BE
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT FROST FOR THE SEASON.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT 7 WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE SUNDAY/
MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT RACING THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
OFF TO MORE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER TO MID 70S) FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GFS
HAS COME IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS AND NOW HAS THE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY.

#55 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:28 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:So much for a chilly Halloween. If the latest GFS run gets its way, then Halloween will probably feature near or above average temperatures across the southern plains with breezy south winds.

Don't count on it to much, I'm still on for lower 70's for high's and mid to upper 40's for lows on Halloween. If the other front that set to come in mid next week happens then temps may be slightly cool for Halloween.

#56 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Sat Oct 25, 2008 11:35 am

HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY LOWS IN THE 30S/40S EXPECTED AS DECOUPLING OF DRY/CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS OCCURS.

So far so good on my forecast, and a chilly Halloween evening will make for a nice time Trick or Treating. :ggreen:

cheezyWXguy · #57 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:16 pm

well the front just passed through my town, and over the past 5 minutes our temperature has dropped from 82 to 74 degrees. Maybe my low tomorrow night in the low 30's isnt too far fetched.

#58 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:24 am

Very chilly start to the day with morning lows at the house in the upper 30's. Due to little moisture there was no frost anywhere. Tuesday morning lows could hit the freezing mark across many parts of NTX including some of the rural areas around the D/FW area.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY
/WARMER WEDNESDAY /BEYOND WITH BRISK SOUTH WINDS...BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY HALLOWEEN. TYPICAL/COOL HALLOWEEN
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TRICK OR TREATERS AND FOLKS ATTENDING AREA HIGH
SCHOOL/ COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES. WON`T HURT TO BRING A LIGHT
COAT/JACKET WITH YOU HALLOWEEN EVENING.

Forecasted Temps for Halloween, mid 70's for high's and mid 50's for lows. Still a nice night for everyone with outdoor plains, just make sure you take a jacket or light coat, blanket if your heading out to the ball games.

#59 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:32 am

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY.

NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT TO FALL TO...OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A
FEW HOURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. PROTECTED...RURAL
AREAS NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREAS WILL ESPECIALLY
GET COLD TONIGHT.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. AUTOMATIC
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE TURNED OFF TO AVOID CREATING ICE
PATCHES ON NEARBY ROADS...DRIVEWAYS...AND SIDEWALKS.

.UPDATE...
BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER EAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT...THE STAGE IS SET FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FREEZING TEMPS OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA. WE/VE CURRENTLY EXPANDED
THE FREEZE WARNING OVER THE WEST BACK TOWARD I-35 AND OVER THE EAST
DOWN INTO HENDERSON COUNTY. WE MAY EXPAND THIS FURTHER AFTER
LOOKING OVER THE 12Z RUNS AND AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS.

Extremeweatherguy · #60 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:40 pm

Yes, "bone dry" is the key word to use all across the southern plains. Currently here in Oklahoma city, the dewpoint is sitting right around 10F. Considering this is only October, I would consider that a very low value.

North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

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