Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmm...

A couple of clues from a Joe Bastardi tweet earlier today? And one yesterday?

Love it, especially on a day when it is supposed to be 105+.

Here they are:

@BigJoeBastardi: "Deal for warmingistas: You can use heat, and soon the hurricanes, for your agenda, but you cant use the nasty winter that is coming, okay"

and then this one from yesterday...

@BigJoeBastardi: "Caution though folks. Major heat has telegraphed major cold within 6 months in this pattern. Wild winter may lurk again much of U.S"

[TwisterFanatic]

I would be shocked if we don't see a rough winter. Every season has had extreme's known for that season.

Spring - Record Tornado outbreaks
Summer - Hottest Summer on record

Just seems inevitable.

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, you may be right. It certainly is a year of extremes.

And I fear that the hurricane season will ramp up by month's end. September might be lights out.

[cycloneye]

I am here to deliver bad news from those who dont want La Nina to come again It looks like it will after the fall as Climate Prediction Center has in their August update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Portastorm]

Uh, thanks Luis!

I've seen some credible information online tying the strength of La Nina in the winter to the conditions in Texas and the Southern Plains the following summer. Even a "weak" Nina could very well mean less-than-average precipitation. If this drought continues rolling into next year ... we may be talking catastrophic conditions.

[aggiecutter]

Given the hottest week is coming up (probably for the summer) with highs pushing 110 for north Texas, anyone want to take a guess on the first date of the first big fall front? I'm going to say October 3rd.

The 0z EURO and the 12Z GFS say the first significant cool-off will be the 11th of August. I know that's not fall, but compared to what we've been experiencing this summer, it will feel like fall.

As far as the winter is concerned, NAO-AO will drive the train.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Texas Snowman]

Saw this yesterday:

http://www.heralddemocrat.com/hd/News/T ... 08-04-0354

[Tireman4]

Larry Cosgrove thinks we may see something break the first week of September.


My thinking is, based on the pulsation we see developing into the Midwest and Great Lakes, that we get a meaningful cool intrusion around September 5.

http://www.facebook.com/#!/ryoum

I hope he is right.

[Portastorm]

The vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center believe the first serious cold front hits Texas on or around September 26th.

[Tireman4]

The vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center believe the first serious cold front hits Texas on or around September 26th.

Are not those drunks (errr excuse me..meteorologists!) supposed to be having a press conference soon about said winter? What is up with that? I thought they were also supposed to:

1. Give the victor of the OU/UT football game?
2. Tell us when Van Halen will put out another album?
3. Explain the origin of life
4. Give the victor in the Super Bowl?

Thank you,

The Concerned Citizens of Texas

[gboudx]

For me, the 1st serious cold front will be the one that pushes highs down to 95. I hope that happens before September 26th.

[Tireman4]

For me, the 1st serious cold front will be the one that pushes highs down to 95. I hope that happens before September 26th.

Now 95 degrees, that is cool. When it gets to 90 for the high...that is freezing!!

[gboudx]

90 is jacket weather. Would need the "cold gear" to go ride my bike.

[Tireman4]

90 is jacket weather. Would need the "cold gear" to go ride my bike.

Yeah, and we runners would have to bundle up...

[Tireman4]

Clues that Fall/Winter is coming...it is cooling off in Resolute, Nunavut..


Resolute+More info
Past 24 HoursRadar ImagerySatellite ImageryCurrent Conditions
43 °F
Observed at: Resolute Airport
Date: 1:00 PM CDT Friday 5 August 2011
Condition:Fog
Pressure:30.04 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:5 miles

Temperature:42.6°F
Dewpoint:40.6°F
Humidity:93 %
Wind:E 26 gust 32 mph

[vbhoutex]

Uh, thanks Luis!

I've seen some credible information online tying the strength of La Nina in the winter to the conditions in Texas and the Southern Plains the following summer. Even a "weak" Nina could very well mean less-than-average precipitation. If this drought continues rolling into next year ... we may be talking catastrophic conditions.

And unfortunately indications are now coming in that we will revert back to La Nina for the Winter. I'll enjoy the cold after this summer, but WE NEED PRECIPITATION!!!

[Portastorm]

The vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center believe the first serious cold front hits Texas on or around September 26th.

Are not those drunks (errr excuse me..meteorologists!) supposed to be having a press conference soon about said winter? What is up with that? I thought they were also supposed to:

1. Give the victor of the OU/UT football game?
2. Tell us when Van Halen will put out another album?
3. Explain the origin of life
4. Give the victor in the Super Bowl?

Thank you,

The Concerned Citizens of Texas

1) OU
2) Never. Wolfie Van Halen will fight with David Lee Roth and leave the band to form another group with Sammy Hagar.
3) One word: God
4) Philadelphia Eagles


... oh, and I don't see us escaping an above normal winter in terms of temperature and below normal in precip. You want details? Gotta wait a few more weeks.

[Tireman4]

The vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center believe the first serious cold front hits Texas on or around September 26th.

Are not those drunks (errr excuse me..meteorologists!) supposed to be having a press conference soon about said winter? What is up with that? I thought they were also supposed to:

1. Give the victor of the OU/UT football game?
2. Tell us when Van Halen will put out another album?
3. Explain the origin of life
4. Give the victor in the Super Bowl?

Thank you,

The Concerned Citizens of Texas

1) OU
2) Never. Wolfie Van Halen will fight with David Lee Roth and leave the band to form another group with Sammy Hagar.
3) One word: God
4) Philadelphia Eagles


... oh, and I don't see us escaping an above normal winter in terms of temperature and below normal in precip. You want details? Gotta wait a few more weeks.

Yes sir

[Texas Snowman]

2011-12 snow forecast from Accuweather's Henry Margusity.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteom ... 112012.asp

He is forecasting above normal snow on the Front Range due to cold air invasions from Alberta (I'd think some of those would make it to Oklahoma/Texas).

And he is forecasting more ice than snow in Oklahoma and portions of the Texas Panhandle.

And he is forecasting more precip in Texas.

I'll take it!

Unfortunately for us winter lovers, he is forecasting below average snow in much of Texas.

But mabe we'll get a storm or two that dump some white stuff. After all, sure didn't see last year's winter attack coming in a La Nina year.

[Ntxw]

Personally I still believe in the whole solar minimum theory. It might just be a coincidence but all of this extreme weather the past two years won't end just because this winter is coming up. I think we are in some kind of cycle that's still going on (Cold PDO FTW). We might not get the above average precip but certainly when the blasts do come, I have a feeling they will be on the stronger side...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dmosnow

If you take a look the 2000s have been quite generous for DFW =P lets hope that trend continues. Reminds one of the 50s and 60s (Once again that cold PDO pops up).

PDO http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm

And for fun (I don't know the validity of this but is interesting) chart of drought history in Texas.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/drought-history-in-texas.html

Anyone notice the correlations between the charts? Or maybe this heat is getting to my head and I'm just hopin!