SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[CajunMama]

Nada. Zipola. Fizzle.

[CajunMama]

1:30am Thursday morning (Thanksgiving day and I just finished a bunch of preps) and the temp has already dropped to 30F. The low is projected to be 26F.

[vbhoutex]

This is posted in the Texas Winter thread too, but this does address SE TX. Jeff Lindners latest email says cold and wet(p type?) weekend.

Warm up in progress over the region today as the retreating arctic dome from last week is replaced with increasing warm air advection.

Very cold air mass is building over NW Canada poised to move southward this week.

After a cold end to the month of November, the first week of December will be mild with continuous warm air advection pumping moisture and a Gulf air mass into the region. Surface dewpoints will gradually increase each day through the week reaching the 60’s and possibly approaching 70 by the middle to end of the week. Recent cold air event over the NW Gulf has cooled near shore water temperatures into the upper 50’s and low 60’s, so dewpoints rising above those levels could result in dense sea fog formation at some point by the middle of the week. Surface temperatures will warm well into the 70’s this week with lows rising into the upper 50’s and eventually the 60’s by Thursday. Rain chances begin to increase on Wednesday and Thursday as moisture deepens.

While we warm, bitter cold air mass will invade the NW US into much of the northern Rockies this week under the influence of a sprawling arctic high pressure dome. Impressive pressure differences are noted along the front range of Colorado by the middle of the week with some suggestion of 30+mb from NW to SE Colorado suggesting a very strong arctic boundary. Temperatures behind this boundary will be very cold for early December with anomalies running upwards of 20-30 degrees below normal for this time of year….this is some impressive cold air for this time of year.

There is little doubt that this cold is coming southward as is so often the case with shallow dense cold arctic air masses. Will see a powerful arctic boundary arrive into the state Thursday and plow off the coast on Friday. Temperatures ahead of the boundary will likely approach 80 on Thursday and Friday (depending on frontal timing) and then tumble behind the front. Rain and showers will accompany the frontal passage and linger in the post frontal cold air. Will easily see temperatures fall a solid 20 degrees with the front and 24-hr temperature differences between Friday and Saturday could be 30-40 degrees. Good potential for much of the area to fall into the 30’s Friday night and stay below 40 into the second week of December for both highs and lows. To complicate matters more, models have been fairly consistent in overrunning the shallow cold dome with plenty of moisture through the weekend resulting in cloudy conditions with periods of drizzle and light rain. Will have to address P-type issues at some point in the next few days as this air mass is colder than the one last week which would support freezing precipitation if surface temperatures are 32 degrees or colder. GFS model continues to hint at shallow surface sub-freezing layer with periods of light rain suggesting freezing rain is possible. Everyone should understand that we are talking 5-6 days out and the chances that the models are correct with the surface air temperature within 1-2 degrees is very unlikely which could make all the difference between ice and a very cold rain. Much uncertainty for next weekend into the second week of December with just how cold the area will get, for how long, and if there will be any winter precipitation.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And over here in se LA they are talking the total opposite. Two days of cold then retreating, go figure

IN TERMS OF THE MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR...IT DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE IN SE LA/S MS YET AS
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PREVENTS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR FROM COMING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. IN FACT...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR RETREATING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGHING PERSISTS TO THE WEST BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH
COMES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID NOT BUY INTO ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING WARM SECTOR BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.

[BigB0882]

I have to admit, I am really depressed we are just missing out on the really cold air. I think some spots are going to have a great chance at seeing something frozen and we will be just a little too far East. I hope this isn't a sign of how things will be all winter. I might have to plan a trip up north to cash in on some of the fun.

[Jagno]

With all of the uncertainty on the timing and extreme cold this weekend I must say that I'm okay without it. Our nice cold snap last Monday night and Tuesday was enough to last me a while. Our neighbors house caught on fire at 1am Tuesday morning in all that cold blustery rainfall. P.S. - When firefighters ask you to get out of your home NOW, they don't give you time to get dressed or even find your shoes. It appears the winds were angled perfectly to send the flames and debris onto my house. Three hours of standing in my gown and robe at the foot of our driveway waiting to see if our home will go up in flames in the pouring cold rain and barefoot was a bit unnerving. I'm good with the milder temps and no rain but I don't see that happening either.

[CajunMama]

Thank goodness you and your family were spared. How bad was your neighbors damage? Are they ok physically?

[PTrackerLA]

GFS doesn't even show us getting into the 30s anymore this weekend. We'll see how that changes but we have definitely started this season off early with 4 official freezes in the bag and 2 nights in the 20's whereas we only got as low as 30 last winter. How low will it go this winter?

[vbhoutex]

With all of the uncertainty on the timing and extreme cold this weekend I must say that I'm okay without it. Our nice cold snap last Monday night and Tuesday was enough to last me a while. Our neighbors house caught on fire at 1am Tuesday morning in all that cold blustery rainfall. P.S. - When firefighters ask you to get out of your home NOW, they don't give you time to get dressed or even find your shoes. It appears the winds were angled perfectly to send the flames and debris onto my house. Three hours of standing in my gown and robe at the foot of our driveway waiting to see if our home will go up in flames in the pouring cold rain and barefoot was a bit unnerving. I'm good with the milder temps and no rain but I don't see that happening either.

So glad you and yours got through this trauma ok. Praying for your neighbors also.

[vbhoutex]

Lots of waffling on the temps with this Arctic push, at least in SE TX. As shallow as this intrusion appears to be, not sure we will have to worry about any Winter precip in Houston Metro/SE TX. It will definitely be cold, but it doesn't appear that the air column will be cold enough at all levels for the Winter precip. Things can always change but currently none of our local OCMs are predicting anything below 35f through the weekend.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the GFS and Euro are starting to latch on to the very cold temperatures by early/mid next week. 12z GFS has us down to 25 degrees and I suspect with snow cover to north we could be quite a bit colder. Amazingly we haven't reached the teens since 1996, I have a gut feeling this could be the winter. Now how do you save Queen Palms from those temperatures?!

[BigB0882]

Looks like the GFS and Euro are starting to latch on to the very cold temperatures by early/mid next week. 12z GFS has us down to 25 degrees and I suspect with snow cover to north we could be quite a bit colder. Amazingly we haven't reached the teens since 1996, I have a gut feeling this could be the winter. Now how do you save Queen Palms from those temperatures?!

Are models good at taking into account the snow pack and the effect that has on temps? I wonder if they factor that in at all and if they do then how good are they at it?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I'm pretty discouraged about all this cold winter weather affecting every one but us. Our nws office is going with the gfs long range but not the cold. Last sentence of our afternoons discussion sums it up pretty well.

IN TIME...A LIGHT FREEZE MAY OCCUR NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOME
UPON APPROACH TO THE GULF STATES.

[BigB0882]

Looks like the GFS and Euro are starting to latch on to the very cold temperatures by early/mid next week. 12z GFS has us down to 25 degrees and I suspect with snow cover to north we could be quite a bit colder. Amazingly we haven't reached the teens since 1996, I have a gut feeling this could be the winter. Now how do you save Queen Palms from those temperatures?!

Are models good at taking into account the snow pack and the effect that has on temps? I wonder if they factor that in at all and if they do then how good are they at it?

You and me both. With my luck this is probably as cold as it will get all winter and we will have nothing but a hot Christmas and humid first part of the year to "enjoy." Maybe the pattern will change and we will get in on the cold later but if it stays like this all winter then I will have a fit. I am going to NYC the 23-27 of this month so maybe they will get in on a little white stuff.

[Jagno]

The neighbors home was completely destroyed. All of my appliances not on surge protectors were fried when a propane tank in the neighbors store room exploded into a missile firing directly into the transformer causing multiple surges before finally going out. I'm just thankful they got out okay and are safely in another home. Homes can be replaced, people can't.

This humidity is unbearable today. Our local weather forecasters are just as confused as we all are as to the temperatures this weekend through next week. I guess we'll just keep the jacket handy. The fog on my way home tonight was extremely heavy and is expected to be the same in the morning. Between the rushed holiday traffic the wrecks have been unbelievable and now with fog they're all going to kill one another behind the wheel. LOL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Youre right about the humidity. My patio has been wet since sunday. Every time i walk outside i think it has rained. This is like early spring. I went fishing this past weekend east of new orleans and the water temps were 48. Checked today and they have risen to 56, after tomorrow and thursdsy they could easily be over 60.

Bigb, if you want to experience some winter wonder you better stay up in new York longer cause it doesn't look like we will see anything over our area of any significance. Last weeks cold snap will probably end up being colder than these next two weeks the way it looks right now.

[vbhoutex]

Well I'm pretty discouraged about all this cold winter weather affecting every one but us. Our nws office is going with the gfs long range but not the cold. Last sentence of our afternoons discussion sums it up pretty well.

IN TIME...A LIGHT FREEZE MAY OCCUR NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOME
UPON APPROACH TO THE GULF STATES.

I certainly know less than any trained met, but I find this a little strange considering the amount of snow and ice that is currently being laid down to our North and Northwest. Of course the air mass will moderate the further it travels(it always does), but our NWS is talking mid 20s for some of our area on Tuesday. As far as the pattern, I've seen enough discussion by different mets that I don't think we're going to see much warm weather for at least the rest of December. Of course we do have our inevitable January thaw to look forward to here along the Gulf coast.

[vbhoutex]

We had FROPA this morning about 2.5 hours ahead of the progged time and the temps have dropped 20 degrees since then under a heavy cloud cover and only a few drizzles. Currently 53f at my house and dropping with about a 10mph wind out of the N with gusts to 22 so far. Going to be interesting to watch and see how this works out over the next few days.

[BigB0882]

We are still sitting at a balmy 77 here in SELA. Yuck.

[Tireman4]

54 at IAH and dropping. 58 at Gulfgate and dropping.