Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ptarmigan]

I do not put a lot of stock into long term forecasts. Things can change.

Aren't these the same long term forecasts that said winter would come back the end of February too

I don't think anyone has a clue after the way this winter has been tbh

No doubt, the more you follow long range forecasting closely the more you realize how much of a casino game of chance it is! Literal coin flip beyond a 2 week forecast...50% chance of above or below normal precip and temp. I appreciate long range forecasters who are bold enough to put their forecasts out there but unfortunately with the shear volume of massive unknowns in the climate world as you get further out in time, will likely have more egg on their face over time than not!

7-14 day forecasts are where the good pro mets can really add value IMO!

So very true. May as well go to a casino and gamble.

[Brent]

Well I got lost in the Rockies today and wound up here. It was also snowing in this picture again



If even half this would happen back home

It was insane though Denver hit 66 and there was no real snow til the very top and then it was yeah all at once

I guess if winter is over back home it's a pretty good way to go out for me because I'm going home tomorrow

[dhweather]

May as well head over to the Spring thread.

[Edwards Limestone]

Yeah winter is toast for us in south central TX. We need more rain stat.

[Stratton23]

Even looking at the current mjo map, none of the models are even remotely close on where its going to go, the MJO is like a pin ball in a pin ball machine, it just bounces around everywhere lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Even looking at the current mjo map, none of the models are even remotely close on where its going to go, the MJO is like a pin ball in a pin ball machine, it just bounces around everywhere lol

I think the triple dip La nina, extremely large amount of warm water in the MC for so long, has really thrown off the atmosphere for this El nino. Normally, we would expect the MC to be cooler or have a greater difference in temp than the Eastern Pac during a strong Nino. I really really dont want us to slip into a Nina for next year.

[ElectricStorm]

I would keep an eye on next Tuesday 2/27 for a potential early season severe weather event. Too early for details but I think we could see something around the Ark-La-Tex region and areas east of that. Might end up being east of most of us here but still something to keep an eye on.

[gpsnowman]

Just needed 4181. The previous page was rather lengthy but informative. What I do know is I miss winter and the February heat sucks. Hopefully March and April trend to the cooler side because we all know what happens after that. Pure nastiness.

[Brent]

So uh it was 83 degrees in Tulsa today.. broke the record from the last time we hit 90 in February

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, getting back to the current weather, if you catch my Moderator drift…

[Stratton23]

A seperate threat needs to be created for this conversation, now back to weather…

[Texas Snowman]

Okay, my Moderator hint didn’t work. Perhaps a refresher on the Storm2K rules will. Here are three that come to mind:

2. Conduct. Storm2k is a FLAME free site. We do not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults.

4. Politics. Political debate and discussion of politics is not allowed on storm2k. We used to have an open forum here for political talk, but it took too much staff time to moderate. We are not allowing political posts of any kind in any of our forums.

6. Topics/Forums. Topics posted must be in the realm of the forum that they are posted in.

Now this time, really back to Winter Weather…

[Stratton23]

I have no evidence to back up my statement, this is more of a prediction / gut feeling, but I think we might be in for a wild ride in march in terms of colder weather, THE GFS and JA guidance have the MJO stalling in phase 3 in week 2 which is a colder outlook for the US, also the GFS is showing a split of the polar vortex due to the major SSWE, I just think something could be in store ahead thats currently not reflected in model guidance, this has been an odd winter, so maybe something funky happens, but hey just a prediction, I could be completely wrong as well

[Stratton23]

Now steering this board back to weather, pattern looks pretty boring for the next 7-10 days, but conflicting signals to start march, SSWE, potential disruption of the PV, and the GEFS and Japanese American guidance stalls the MJO in phase 3, which would mean a colder outlook in week 2, such a weird winter

[rwfromkansas]

Well, 90 degrees monday. Too friggin early for that! As for around here, when we have nothing to talk about, we find things to argue about apparently.

This winter sucked, but most do around here, not that unusual. It just looked so promising at the beginning. Need to find a business I can do so I can move back to KS or somewhere up north. Teaching salaries are awful up there, so not going to stay doing that....

[Gotwood]

Now steering this board back to weather, pattern looks pretty boring for the next 7-10 days, but conflicting signals to start march, SSWE, potential disruption of the PV, and the GEFS and Japanese American guidance stalls the MJO in phase 3, which would mean a colder outlook in week 2, such a weird winter

I love winter but I wouldn’t mind to just not have blazing upper 90s until the actual summer lol.

[Stratton23]

Gotwood couldnt agree more, 90’s in february should be illegal lol

[snownado]

Loving this weather. DFW has hit 81*F 3 days in a row.

Crazy to think we could make a run towards 90*F on Monday.

[Stratton23]

79 here, absolutely disgusting, way way too warm for my liking

[Brent]

I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday