Texas Winter 2017-2018

[OKMet83]

FT Worth NWS AFD "Area Forecast Discussion" from this afternoon... As I've said repeatedly models suck outside 4+ days so let's see how this all looks over the weekend

Medium range models and their ensembles are struggling
mightily as one would expect this far out with such a deep system,
so confidence on precipitation and timing with this system and
its associated strong cold front are low at this time. It does
appear the airmass arriving late next week will be colder with a
1030mb+ surface high pressure ridge moving into the area by
Friday. I did undercut the national blend MOS values by quite a
bit with chilly temperatures in the 40s expected, or possibly
colder.

[bubba hotep]

Models are starting to trend wetter for DFW, esp. eastern areas, with this weekend system. Also, this weekend system looks to drive a cold front all the way down to the Yucatan, scouring out all the Gulf moisture. This leaves very dry air in place for the next system, so even though the system looks vigorous and digs into Texas the models aren't producing a lot of rain with it. Obviously, this will change but this weekend system will play a role in determining how much moisture the next bigger system has to work with.

[orangeblood]

Models are starting to trend wetter for DFW, esp. eastern areas, with this weekend system. Also, this weekend system looks to drive a cold front all the way down to the Yucatan, scouring out all the Gulf moisture. This leaves very dry air in place for the next system, so even though the system looks vigorous and digs into Texas the models aren't producing a lot of rain with it. Obviously, this will change but this weekend system will play a role in determining how much moisture the next bigger system has to work with.

If you get the 2nd system to dig south of El Paso, it'll find plenty of moisture and looking at the origin of this cold airmass next week, this airmass should be colder than currently progged and potentially much colder. The northeaster is forecast to shake things up as it moves towards Greenland sending a huge chunck of arctic air towards western Canada and down into the southern plains - this 2nd one has significant potential if we get lucky with the trajectory

[Ntxw]

Air is bleeding from Northeast Asia across the pole again. Large area on nearly all guidance of Western Canada basically nearly as cold as it was before the New Year's outbreak. It's a matter of delivery. We're once again staring at potentially 1040-1050hp dome working it's way down. Again if you look at historical reference (and what just happened) another sub-freezing day at DFW is not out of the possibility. It's probably going to end up colder. Big difference this time is we may have a big SW low involved which makes the equation the more complicated

[Yukon Cornelius]

Nice temp bust here. The low was forecasted to be 29 and it’s currently 21.

[wxman57]

Air is bleeding from Northeast Asia across the pole again. Large area on nearly all guidance of Western Canada basically nearly as cold as it was before the New Year's outbreak. It's a matter of delivery. We're once again staring at potentially 1040-1050hp dome working it's way down. Again if you look at historical reference (and what just happened) another sub-freezing day at DFW is not out of the possibility. It's probably going to end up colder. Big difference this time is we may have a big SW low involved which makes the equation the more complicated

http://i66.tinypic.com/2rnajja.png

I see a significant difference in the projected upper-air pattern next week if/when that cold makes it southward through Canada. The projected zonal flow would shunt it off to the east for the most part. We'll get a cold front through Texas next Thursday, but beyond then both the GFS and Euro operational runs and ensembles show considerable warming across Canada and the U.S. Temps well above normal across the northern U.S. and Canada the week after next. This time, it looks like a moderate shot of cold air followed by a significant warmup the following week that may last through January. My coworker is thinking that the pattern will change as we move into February, possibly resulting in more winter weather across Texas then.

[Portastorm]

This assessment is consistent with other thoughts I’ve seen online from meteorologists like Bastardi, Michael Ventrice, and Judah Cohen.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

This assessment is consistent with other thoughts I’ve seen online from meteorologists like Bastardi, Michael Ventrice, and Judah Cohen.

According to the latest Euro Weeklies, the warmup should only last about 7-10 days as the Massive Gulf of Alaska Low transitions through NA (++EPO) then the Ridge pops back up into Alaska (--EPO). Hopefully, we get more of a negative PNA towards the back half of winter

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:

This assessment is consistent with other thoughts I’ve seen online from meteorologists like Bastardi, Michael Ventrice, and Judah Cohen.

According to the latest Euro Weeklies, the warmup should only last about 7-10 days as the Massive Gulf of Alaska Low transitions through NA (++EPO) then the Ridge pops back up into Alaska (--EPO). Hopefully, we get more of a negative PNA towards the back half of winter

Wouldn’t even a neutral PNA be okay? Hasn’t it been positive for a while now?

[Ntxw]

Wouldn’t even a neutral PNA be okay? Hasn’t it been positive for a while now?

The PNA has largely been positive since December 1st. It's had short dips lower but returns quite positive thereafter. This is partly the reason for the core of cold slight east. It also causes storms to dig positive tilt down the plains and then go neutral/negative as they go east of the Miss. Thus the action in the gulf coast and east coast for snow and ice. Southern Texas, mostly along I-10 can benefit from this quite nicely as they are closer to the gulf waters when the trough taps into it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have to admit, rooting for this pattern change the GFS is showing in the long range for my ski trip. Tropical forcing shifts east, brings the W Pac high near hawaii slamming some big storms into the west coast and inter-mountain range.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

This assessment is consistent with other thoughts I’ve seen online from meteorologists like Bastardi, Michael Ventrice, and Judah Cohen.

According to the latest Euro Weeklies, the warmup should only last about 7-10 days as the Massive Gulf of Alaska Low transitions through NA (++EPO) then the Ridge pops back up into Alaska (--EPO). Hopefully, we get more of a negative PNA towards the back half of winter

At least as far as the pro mets I follow on social media, the current thinking is when the pattern snaps back to cold that the focus on the cold will be further west than what it has been. That should be us (Texas) in a good spot if it all happens that way.

[Ralph's Weather]

Nice temp bust here. The low was forecasted to be 29 and it’s currently 21.

Made it down to 24 here. One more possible freeze tomorrow then a break for a few days.

[orangeblood]

I have to admit, rooting for this pattern change the GFS is showing in the long range for my ski trip. Tropical forcing shifts east, brings the W Pac high near hawaii slamming some big storms into the west coast and inter-mountain range.

Yeah, the central and southern ski resorts are struggling big time...they desperately need to increase their snow pack, less than 50-70% of ski runs are open on most of those resorts currently

[orangeblood]

Nice temp bust here. The low was forecasted to be 29 and it’s currently 21.

Made it down to 24 here. One more possible freeze tomorrow then a break for a few days.

Big Urban heat island affect occurred overnight across the DFW Metroplex...DFW only made it down to 31 while Mineral Wells (west) and Terrell (east) made it down to 25.

[Ntxw]

Nice temp bust here. The low was forecasted to be 29 and it’s currently 21.

Made it down to 24 here. One more possible freeze tomorrow then a break for a few days.

Big Urban heat island affect occurred overnight across the DFW Metroplex...DFW only made it down to 31 while Mineral Wells (west) and Terrell (east) made it down to 25.

Yep but even here the forecast was 33F while GFS was upper 30s.

Speaking of GFS. Has DFW hovering in the 30s next friday. Wimpy compared to this season's cold snaps, but other seasons noteworthy!

[bubba hotep]

Made it down to 24 here. One more possible freeze tomorrow then a break for a few days.

Big Urban heat island affect occurred overnight across the DFW Metroplex...DFW only made it down to 31 while Mineral Wells (west) and Terrell (east) made it down to 25.

Yep but even here the forecast was 33F while GFS was upper 30s.

Speaking of GFS. Has DFW hovering in the 30s next friday. Wimpy compared to this season's cold snaps, but other seasons noteworthy!

Sub freezing highs for the northern burbs... ugh, I hate snowless

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

This assessment is consistent with other thoughts I’ve seen online from meteorologists like Bastardi, Michael Ventrice, and Judah Cohen.

According to the latest Euro Weeklies, the warmup should only last about 7-10 days as the Massive Gulf of Alaska Low transitions through NA (++EPO) then the Ridge pops back up into Alaska (--EPO). Hopefully, we get more of a negative PNA towards the back half of winter

Don't get me wrong, I'm not declaring winter to be over for Texas. I still have to get some more significant snow for the DFW area. However, I don't think that the DFW area will see any further winter weather until the very end of January at the earliest. As I've said, February is often the snowiest month across Texas. Meanwhile, looks like I'll have to turn on the AC this afternoon as temps climb back up into the 50s here.

[gatorcane]

Surprised there are no comments on the latest ECMWF? Looks like an interesting storm system here...

[wxman57]

Surprised there are no comments on the latest ECMWF? Looks like an interesting storm system here...

https://s13.postimg.org/jymyxovg7/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

12Z Euro indicates some light showers in NE TX just ahead of the front early next Thursday morning, then lows in the upper 20s to low 30s on Friday and Saturday. After that, a gradual warm-up the following week. Not much to be excited about in Texas. It's the January doldrums following the big cold outbreak. Winter continues in 3-4 weeks.