Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Ok I am confused...... What is going on? Why would the NWS and the long range forecasters get onboard with this stuff and now the computer models have taken it all away? Is there something that they as humans know that the computer is not picking up on. What happened?

That's one model so far, wait for the others. If they change the tune then we can start panicking. Again nothing is set in stone. Could swing one way or the other many times before then lol.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah thats a bad swing there.

[Portastorm]

Y'all are hilarious and God knows I need a good laugh right now, watching a KU beatdown of my Horns.

The NAM has a warm bias. Always has. Furthermore, most pro mets I know don't even trust the model very much to begin with.

One bad NAM run should not discourage you. Remember the trends and they are still in your favor, north Texans. C'mon ... keep the faith!

[Peanut432]

The horns are getting destoryed and its very hard to watch I agree

[orangeblood]

What tonight's NAM run is showing is exactly why I haven't got on board with this system yet. If the storm gets that far south, then it will form a much stronger gulf coast low and cut off a lot of the moisture into northern Texas.

[Ntxw]

Y'all are hilarious and God knows I need a good laugh right now, watching a KU beatdown of my Horns.

The NAM has a warm bias. Always has. Furthermore, most pro mets I know don't even trust the model very much to begin with.

One bad NAM run should not discourage you. Remember the trends and they are still in your favor, north Texans. C'mon ... keep the faith!

It's the only high resolution model we have to compare the GFS to! But you're right I was hoping for an upset of KU

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Barnes is having the Horns lose lol, he specializes in having run of the mill regular seasons and then destroying the ncaa's. Things were just going way too well with the Horns undefeated.

None of the area NWS offices, except for a blurb in ok, have updated their discussion yet, you can tell they're busy ciphering.

edit: scratch that, FWD NWS 9:22 update still had 80% chance of snow Thursday in Dallas, 50% Thursday night. Still forecasting light to moderate accumulations.

[HockeyTx82]

I guess the one thing I need to tell myself is the models forecast and don't control the weather. While we look at them for guidance I assume they have been wrong many of time. I think you all have used the word flip-flop many of times......

[Texas Snowman]

I guess the one thing I need to tell myself is the models forecast and don't control the weather. While we look at them for guidance I assume they have been wrong many of time. I think you all have used the word flip-flop many of times......

We need a "popcorn munching" smiley for wobble watching during the 'cane season and model flip-flopping during winter storm season!

[rhoby13]

Already feeling better with the 0UTC GFS run

[HockeyTx82]

Already feeling better with the 0UTC GFS run

Feeling better about what and where?

[wxman57]

00Z NAM did go way warm - 40s vs. 30-32 in the cold air. Looks very suspicious. I do share Ft. Worth office's concern about how much moisture the GFS moves so far inland, as I've said over the weekend. But I still think it looks good for an I-20 snow event. Still 3 days out, though, but when the models start jumping around within 72 hrs my confidence wanes a bit. Time for bed. Stayed up too late last night with the game and that 5:30am alarm comes fast.

[HockeyTx82]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
956 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND THERE WERE ONLY A
FEW CHANGES MADE TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO LATEST
TRENDS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE SCOURED OUT BY EARLY MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS THE WINTER POTENTIAL THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DEC 29 SNOW EVENT EARLIER THIS
WINTER...WHERE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. CLIMATOLOGY OF THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
OFTEN WHETHER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH. FOR
WHATEVER REASON...THE MODELS TEND TO ALWAYS BE A LITTLE TOO COOL
WITH TEMPS...AS THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW SEEMS TO BRING UP MORE
WARM AIR THAN FORECAST. 12Z MODEL DATA WAS ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON
QUITE A BIT OF SNOW...AND FOR THE CITED REASONS WE ARE A BIT
SKEPTICAL WITH THESE MODEL FORECASTS. WE FEEL THE CHANCE OF SNOW
IS VERY GOOD...BUT WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ADDRESSED THE
APPROPRIATE CONCERNS OF SLOWER SYSTEM SPEED CAUSING WARMER SURFACE
TEMPS...AND INTERESTINGLY THE LATEST NAM HAS COME IN SLOWER/WARMER
WITH THE SYSTEM. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...AS NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE 0Z MODELS TO DIGEST.

TR.92e

Thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS snow accumulation map at hour 84...




much better than the NAM, but it pales in comparison to what the 12z GFS was showing earlier today
(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png).

[Tejas89]

CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS THE WINTER POTENTIAL THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DEC 29 SNOW EVENT EARLIER THIS
WINTER...WHERE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. CLIMATOLOGY OF THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
OFTEN WHETHER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH. FOR
WHATEVER REASON...THE MODELS TEND TO ALWAYS BE A LITTLE TOO COOL
WITH TEMPS...AS THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW SEEMS TO BRING UP MORE
WARM AIR THAN FORECAST. 12Z MODEL DATA WAS ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON
QUITE A BIT OF SNOW...AND FOR THE CITED REASONS WE ARE A BIT
SKEPTICAL WITH THESE MODEL FORECASTS. WE FEEL THE CHANCE OF SNOW
IS VERY GOOD...BUT WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

So true. We've seen this scenario kill many a Dallas snow/sleet forecast. Still a long way out though...

[katheria]

00 UTC Gfs 72 hrs even if its just 1/2 " that we get ill still be happy

[iorange55]

Lol, okay. I saw all tonights info. Now i'm not looking tomorrow. I'll see what they're saying wednesday when we'll know for sure.

[katheria]

Lol, okay. I saw all tonights info. Now i'm not looking tomorrow. I'll see what they're saying wednesday when we'll know for sure.

sure you wont look......just like i wont LOL

[HockeyTx82]

Lol, okay. I saw all tonights info. Now i'm not looking tomorrow. I'll see what they're saying wednesday when we'll know for sure.

I tried that once and was back in a few hours, you know you can't stay away.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would prefer the high pressures to be further west than what the GFS is showing....