Siberian Express January/February 2011

[Portastorm]

Question. I know what people are saying on here, and it's a lot of what I want to hear. But for the people who still have their forecasts in the 50's and at most lower 40's, what could they be seeing in the models that is telling them that this isn't going to be what most people on here are speculating?

To whom are you referring? If you are mentioning the NWS, I think they're going colder than that and your Fort Worth office has been outstanding thus far. Plus, NWS forecasters are going to plunge into the deep freeze some 7-8 days out with their forecasted temps. Plenty of time to taper down (or up) as necessary. As for TV mets, I don't know what their motives are other than caution?

[DonWrk]

Question. I know what people are saying on here, and it's a lot of what I want to hear. But for the people who still have their forecasts in the 50's and at most lower 40's, what could they be seeing in the models that is telling them that this isn't going to be what most people on here are speculating?

To whom are you referring? If you are mentioning the NWS, I think they're going colder than that and your Fort Worth office has been outstanding thus far. Plus, NWS forecasters are going to plunge into the deep freeze some 7-8 days out with their forecasted temps. Plenty of time to taper down (or up) as necessary. As for TV mets, I don't know what their motives are other than caution?

I agree. I would say it's mostly caution. I guess most of all have mentioned it in one way or the other. I sure wish I could read the models better!

[jasons2k]

Folks, it becoming rather clear that the cold air is coming and it appears that this will be a long lasting event, compared to a quick shot and warming up. There appears to be multiple reinforcing shots of Arctic Air heading S into the CONUS well into the 15 day time frame beginning later this weekend near the Canadian/US border.

Yes, unfortunately for us warm weather lovers & tropical gardeners, it does. I am still holding out hope that it will not be as severe as currently modelled. We do see a similar setup almost every year and more often than not, it doesn't come to fruition.

That said, I am much more concerned than usual with this. With the source region in Siberia, then moving across and building a high in NW Canada, then the high axis charging straight down the plains with cold air knifing down the front range...it has my attention. These are precisely the ingredients we need for an old-fashoioned "blue norther" here in Texas. The steering patterns would not shunt the worst of this one off to the east.

Somebody please say it ain't so!!

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS coming out...1060 High coming out of Canada....the consistency is amazing

[Ntxw]

Pretty unanimous enough to say it's going to be cold throughout the country starting next Monday, maybe Tuesday for the Southeast. If you want to avoid the frigid icebox I suggest going to deep South Florida or California as they look to avoid the worst of it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm not a forecaster, just a weather freak who watches models etc, but from the looks of things, I think this is a lock ladies and gents. I see this being an event we will look back on in years to come. Not going to say It will be worse than '83 or '89 but it will be in their ballpark. Especially if we can get a solid snowpack in the Midwest to keep the high from moderating quickly.

On the most recent GFS we see only the one huge shot of cold air with not much coming down behind it, but I think more cold air will build in behind it for another dose of the 'Emporer of Winter.' it's not showing it around that ten day period in which the GFS has trouble handling (in my opinion.)

Again I'm a weather nut that is an investment advisor not a pro met also, for some reason, I cannot acces the site on my PC browser but I have to use my iPhone to see the site:(

[northjaxpro]

Based on the consistency of the Euro and GFS, I feel pretty confident that this very significant arctic air intrusion into the CONUS will occur next week. Just as I mentioned yesterday and TeamPlayerBlue pointed out, if we can get a decent snowpack over the Midwest and Plains next week, the potential for record shattering and dangerous cold across the country really looms BIG next week.

Also, it looks probable that this could be a long lasting extreme cold outbreak across the CONUS, which is even more of a concern. I must say that the negative AO and negative NAO have definitely been unexpectedly more extreme than what the experts thought. This pattern looks to be locked into place for most of January it appears now.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro running now ... looks faster with the front than 0z run, through 120 hours.

[Portastorm]

Man, this 12z Euro run is interesting. Looks like it digs a sharp trough at 144 hrs ... holds up the front some in north Texas but creates what is probably a blizzard in the Panhandle.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

[srainhoutx]

Man, this 12z Euro run is interesting. Looks like it digs a sharp trough at 144 hrs ... holds up the front some in north Texas but creates what is probably a blizzard in the Panhandle.

168 has the Freezing line well S along Coastal TX and a very deep trough.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, not to mention 1044mb of high pressure sitting over Amarillo. Sheesh!

[Ntxw]

Yeah, not to mention 1044mb of high pressure sitting over Amarillo. Sheesh!

Awhile the 1052mb high is just entering the picture in NW Canada. Check out the heights in Alaska, nothing is going to stop it!

[Portastorm]

Yeah, not to mention 1044mb of high pressure sitting over Amarillo. Sheesh!

Awhile the 1052mb high is just entering the picture in NW Canada. Check out the heights in Alaska, nothing is going to stop it!

Good add, Ntxw! This is going to be a long-lasting event. Very impressive. Hopefully we can get past the "is this going to happen?" stuff in the public discussion realm and have media outlets start to educate people on how to protect pipes, pets, outdoor stuff, plants, etc.

[Ivanhater]

The worst of the cold seems to be shunted east on the 12z Euro instead over continuing to dive down into Texas. Still extremely cold though.

[Ntxw]

The worst of the cold seems to be shunted east on the 12z Euro instead over continuing to dive down into Texas. Still extremely cold though.[/Quote]

It's going to be universally cold throughout the country. The core will be in the northern plains into the midwest. The coldest for the south will be Texas as freezes will be beyond to Mexico. The only place that would possibly escape is deep south Florida as the air modifies heading east and a SJT trying to fight with storms riding up ne from the SW.

[Ivanhater]

However, the cold doesn't stop!

1060 High IN the U.S..not Canada...IN the U.S!

216

[iorange55]

Yeah this Euro run is another good run. I'm convinced it's going to be freaking cold all I'm looking for now is precip. Which we won't know till this weekend probably.

[Ntxw]

I'm really liking the aspect for a southern tier storm though...the gulf coast region will be the battlezone.

[DonWrk]

Where would the precip need to develop to get a good storm going? The pacific, the gulf, moisture with front?

[Ntxw]

The north pole seems to have moved it's address to northern Saskatchewan after the intial cold surge!

That's definitely something you see in Siberia, not North America.