Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Some real good, thought-provoking information there, Ntxw. Good job!

I think your general ideas are spot on. My guess right now is that we'll generally see above normal temps/below normal precip this winter in much of Texas but that it won't be as pronounced as last winter. Also, I think with a negative NAO progged and a lot of discussion about a persistent Greenland block (negative AO, anyone?) ... the strength of what cold fronts do plow through the state will be significant.

FWIW, I've seen some tweets from JB about an early start to winter for much of the nation.

[HockeyTx82]

I guess the heatwave is over? When was the last time it was 84 out at 3:29PM in Dallas?

Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -97.03 Elev: 560
Last Update on Aug 11, 2:53 pm CDT


Mostly Cloudy

84 °F(29 °C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: N 17 MPH
Barometer: 29.88" (1010.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Heat Index: 87 °F (31 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

[somethingfunny]

Who guessed August 11th for the first real cold front of Autumn?

[Portastorm]

Who guessed August 11th for the first real cold front of Autumn?

Ahem! (Portastorm clears his throat) ... A rain-cooled outflow boundary does NOT qualify as a "real cold front."

[Tireman4]

Who guessed August 11th for the first real cold front of Autumn?

Ahem! (Portastorm clears his throat) ... A rain-cooled outflow boundary does NOT qualify as a "real cold front."

Yeah, but you would like a shot of that rain cooled air Porta....LOL

[Portastorm]

Who guessed August 11th for the first real cold front of Autumn?

Ahem! (Portastorm clears his throat) ... A rain-cooled outflow boundary does NOT qualify as a "real cold front."

Yeah, but you would like a shot of that rain cooled air Porta....LOL

Sure I would ... did my pissy/jealous tone show?

[TexasStorm]

Setting aside the return to at least a weak La Nina and the negative NAO.... does anyone have any data on what the winter of 1980 was like? Since there are so many references to the 1980 summer this year it would be interesting to see what winter 1980 holds as an analog year.

[Tireman4]

I think Ptarmigan knows...

[Portastorm]

Setting aside the return to at least a weak La Nina and the negative NAO.... does anyone have any data on what the winter of 1980 was like? Since there are so many references to the 1980 summer this year it would be interesting to see what winter 1980 holds as an analog year.

In terms of ENSO, conditions were neutral that winter (1980-81).

Here is the temp profile of Dec-Feb:



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Here is the precip profile:



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[Ptarmigan]

Setting aside the return to at least a weak La Nina and the negative NAO.... does anyone have any data on what the winter of 1980 was like? Since there are so many references to the 1980 summer this year it would be interesting to see what winter 1980 holds as an analog year.

Winter in 1980-81 was normal. Snow flurries fell twice in Houston in that winter. There was an Arctic blasts in February 1981. It was a Neutral.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[Ptarmigan]

I think a good analog for upcoming winter are 1980-1981, 1999-2000, and 2000-2001. The winters occurred after a strong heat wave (all of them) or are La Nina winters that followed a previous La Nina winter (1999-2000 and 2000-2001). Also the La Ninas were weaker in 1999-2000 and 2000-2001.


Winter Precipitation


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Winter in Texas could see normal precipitation with the exception of Upper Texas Coast, which could see a drier winter.

Winter PDSI


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Looks to see another drought, but there should be some improvement.


Winter Temperature


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Winter in Texas could see normal temperature including Upper Texas Coast. December 2000 was one of the coldest Decembers on record in Houston. It is the third coldest after 1989 and 1983.

[Portastorm]

Definitely some "food" for thought there Ptarmigan. I'm going to look more closely at these analogs this weekend and see how they shape up to what's currently going on ... what the NAO was doing those years, PDO, etc.

[aggiecutter]

La Nina winters have brought some extreme winter events to the Texarkana area. Last year, we had a total of 16 inches of snow in 3 separate events. There was also 3 major winter events in December of 2000. About the second week of December, we received 4 inches of snow and sleet. On Christmas Day of that same year, Texarkana was paralyzed by a devastating ice storm. I was without power for a week. Some parts of the city were without power for 3 weeks. 5-6 days after the ice storm, Texarkana received 6 inches of snow. This same system affected Shreveport in the infamous Independence Bowl that featured A&M and Mississippi State. Here's a small snip-it from the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF0EkeUJ7mY

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

La Nina winters have brought some extreme winter events to the Texarkana area. Last year, we had a total of 16 inches of snow in 3 separate events. There was also 3 major winter events in December of 2000. About the second week of December, we received 4 inches of snow and sleet. On Christmas Day of that same year, Texarkana was paralyzed by a devastating ice storm. I was without power for a week. Some parts of the city were without power for 3 weeks. 5-6 days after the ice storm, Texarkana received 6 inches of snow. This same system affected Shreveport in the infamous Independence Bowl that featured A&M and Mississippi State. Here's a small snip-it from the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF0EkeUJ7mY

Remember those lovely rolling blackouts during early 2011 due to extreme cold- In central TX we had atleast two snow days- I don't care for cold and rainy weather but this has to be the worst summer I have seen in my 33 years~ You would think fall is in the air right now due to the orange trees but then it hits you that they are burnt to a crisp-

[gpsnowman]

Judging from the amount of dead leaves in my driveway and in the alleyway, you would think it was autumn. Never seen anything like it in my life. Just amazing. What a nasty summer this has been. Portastorm, please deliver all of us some good news, will ya?

[natlib]

Larry Cosgrove is calling for a pattern change with cooler weather and rain starting Labor Day weekend. Oh how I hope Larry is right on this one!!!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Judging from the amount of dead leaves in my driveway and in the alleyway, you would think it was autumn. Never seen anything like it in my life. Just amazing. What a nasty summer this has been. Portastorm, please deliver all of us some good news, will ya?

I didn't get the time this weekend I had hoped to have for a study, namely due to mod duties here with Irene. It may be next weekend before I post anything but I'm namely looking to see what others (i.e. online mets whom I respect and believe they know what they are talking about) are saying as well as analogs.

Right now, it looks like we'll see weak to possibly even moderate Nina conditions with a primarily negative North American Oscillation (NAO) and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In some respects, it's somewhat like last winter but the Nina won't be as strong. I do think a couple of Arctic blasts (temps in the 20s or maybe even teens) into the Southern Plains and Texas are likely as well as a couple of shots of wintry precip. Last winter we had a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and that helped dump some frigid air south on occasion when the jet stream buckled enough.

Some of the early forecasts I'm seeing suggest portions of December and January will be very cold for us interspliced with dry and above normal temps ... and that February may end up being much warmer and drier.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hello everyone, it's been a long time since I dropped in on S2K. I hope all is well with you and your family.

Now on to my favorite subject "Winter" and what will be or wont be. Well with all things said I see this being another La Nina winter though not near as strong or as persistant. This is not good news for those of us in the worst drought since the 1950's.

My lawn is as brown and dead in August as it was in January...lol, and the heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees to the point that are dropping leaves as it was late October. Now how do I see Winter 2011-2012 shapping up?

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro.

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough.

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter.

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry.

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry.

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet.

Well that's my 2 cents worth of weather forecasting for today. Stay cool and pray for RAIN!!

[South Texas Storms]

Hello everyone, it's been a long time since I dropped in on S2K. I hope all is well with you and your family.

Now on to my favorite subject "Winter" and what will be or wont be. Well with all things said I see this being another La Nina winter though not near as strong or as persistant. This is not good news for those of us in the worst drought since the 1950's.

My lawn is as brown and dead in August as it was in January...lol, and the heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees to the point that are dropping leaves as it was late October. Now how do I see Winter 2011-2012 shapping up?

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro.

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough.

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter.

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry.

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry.

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet.

Well that's my 2 cents worth of weather forecasting for today. Stay cool and pray for RAIN!!

Thanks for your forecast! I will keep praying for rain and I hope everyone else does too! Our prayers will be answered!

[iorange55]

I think September will have some 100 degree days, but I don't think several. I don't see any more 100+ degree streaks past 2-3 days in a row, once we get out of this one.


At least, I hope.