SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013

[ktulu909]

Franklinton,La reporting mixed sleet on WWL radio news.

[vbhoutex]

Here's Jeff's take on Winter precip in our area through Saturday am:

Mix of winter precipitation possible tonight for the northern parts of SE TX.

Another piece of energy currently approaching SW TX this morning will swing ENE tonight and Friday. Surface high pressure currently over NW TX has dried the area after the light rains yesterday, but moisture is lurking just to the SW and this will return to the region this afternoon and evening. Fairly decent lift is expected to affect the area north of I-10 after midnight tonight with precipitation banding developing from SC TX into SE TX.....

.....the freezing layer above the surface will be shrinking overnight as precipitation falls into the dry air and cools the air to below freezing. The forecast soundings over our northern counties from College Station to Huntsville reduce the above freezing layer to less than 3000 ft thick early Friday, but maintain surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Think the warm layer will be short enough to allow a mix of sleet and rain in the region from College Station to Huntsville, it is possible that the lower air column could cool enough to allow all sleet in this area. Precipitation intensity is expected to be on the lighter side (less than .10 of an inch) which suggest little if any accumulation especially if surface temperatures remain in the 33-35 range. Could be a few spots that drop to 31-32 degrees under some heavier precipitation in the northern counties and this could result in some very minor accumulation on elevated surfaces. It must be stressed that only a trace of ice on bridges and overpasses can be extremely dangerous. Should the next round of models come in slightly wetter or cooler over this region, we would likely be into Winter Weather Advisory criteria…and the trend over the past 24 hours has been toward a wetter system.

North of a line from Columbus to Kingwood to Livingston, the air column will require more work as lift will be weaker in this area and the above freezing layer is much thicker. Given the fact that sleet fell yesterday, I would not be surprised to see a mixture of light rain and sleet north of the above mentioned line. Throughout this region surface temperatures will be in the mid 30’s and any sleet will melt on contact. South of this line most of what falls will be liquid with a few ice pellets.

Precipitation Types (Tonight-mid morning Friday):

College Station to Huntsville North: rain/sleet mix possibly changing to all sleet with some snow mix. Some minor accumulation possible
Columbus to Katy to Kingwood to Livingston North: rain/sleet mix. No accumulation
Columbus to Katy to Kingwood to Livingston South: mainly rain with a few sleet pellets. No accumulation

Profile temperatures should warm enough to return the area to all rain by midday Friday. Cloudy and cold conditions will continue into Saturday as the area remains under the grips of an active sub-tropical jet stream aloft. Could see a few showers continue into Saturday before finally clearing on Sunday.

Extended:

While much focus is currently on the short term…the extended will not be outdone as models are showing a potential big weather maker arriving early to mid next week. Shear and instability profiles are looking very favorable for what could be a fairly significant severe weather outbreak over TX including eh threat for tornadoes. The system has many similarities to the 1-9-12 flooding and severe weather/tornado event, but even projected stronger wind fields.

[ROCK]

Jeff always tells it like it is....interesting about next week and what the models are hinting at right now.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: Jeff always tells it like it is....interesting about next week and what the models are hinting at right now.

He and Larry Cosgrove have peaked my interest for the long range, to say the least.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not even slightly falling into the trap of believing long term models but think it worth a mention that our nws office does mention the possibility of a artic blast with winter weather in the long term.

BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WORTH MENTIONING...THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLACE A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO A DEEP FREEZE WITH WINTRY WEATHER IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

[vbhoutex]

Reported 0.40" of rain from overnight with another 0.25" in the gauge with rain continuing. Current temp is 43.3f. Yucky day, but we sure do need the rain. As much as I would love to see some Winter precipitation, I am hoping for a short respite with some warming like the models are predicting. We'll deal with the possibilities of major cold after the warm up when it gets here.

[ROCK]

Reported 0.40" of rain from overnight with another 0.25" in the gauge with rain continuing. Current temp is 43.3f. Yucky day, but we sure do need the rain. As much as I would love to see some Winter precipitation, I am hoping for a short respite with some warming like the models are predicting. We'll deal with the possibilities of major cold after the warm up when it gets here.

warm up will be brief. ..did you see the 12Z EURO run.....that is 1983ish..its going to get mighty cold around here in about 10 days...

[Ptarmigan]

Reported 0.40" of rain from overnight with another 0.25" in the gauge with rain continuing. Current temp is 43.3f. Yucky day, but we sure do need the rain. As much as I would love to see some Winter precipitation, I am hoping for a short respite with some warming like the models are predicting. We'll deal with the possibilities of major cold after the warm up when it gets here.

warm up will be brief. ..did you see the 12Z EURO run.....that is 1983ish..its going to get mighty cold around here in about 10 days...

That could get interesting. The December 1983 freeze occurred occurred despite a positive North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Pacific North America. Howver, East Pacific Oscillation was positive.

AO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... scii.table

NAO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... scii.table

PNA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... scii.table

EPO
http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt

[BigB0882]

The 12z run of GFS showed highs in my part of LA barely above freezing in about 12 days or so, lasting for a good 24 hours. It looks like another burst of cold is moving down at the end of the run. A long way off but interesting to see and what is scary is that the models often underdo the cold!

[Ntxw]

Setting the cold aside, I am very concerned about coming systems regarding tornado outbreaks. Middle of next week the storm will be cut off so I'm thinking it will be more isolated and linear form. But the system after that, you have that classic ribbon of jet cutting through the middle of the country and stout SE ridge pumping moist air. That's a lot of turning in the atmosphere and has the look of major supercells. Still 6-10 days away but certainly eye opening for folks in SE Texas/LA to monitor. That jet configuration always presents nasty

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well whatever the baton rouge nws office saw is gone. For two days they mentioned the possibility of cold and winter weather for next weekend. They said was looking less likely this morning and this afternoon never even mentioned it. Matter of fact lake Charles didn't and Shreveport just said models coming in warmer. Wonder if this will be one of the outbreaks the models keep pushing back day after day and it never happens.

[LaBreeze]

Well whatever the baton rouge nws office saw is gone. For two days they mentioned the possibility of cold and winter weather for next weekend. They said was looking less likely this morning and this afternoon never even mentioned it. Matter of fact lake Charles didn't and Shreveport just said models coming in warmer. Wonder if this will be one of the outbreaks the models keep pushing back day after day and it never happens.

Thanks for staying on top of things. So, it's looking like we're not going to get this arctic cold snap? I'm ok with that - I really just want to see some sunshine around here. If things change, please know that we are ready for your input.

[Jagno]

I can handle cold weather. I can handle rainy weather. I'd just really prefer not to handle both simultaneously. It is downright bone chilling.

Our weather forcast for the coming week has alerted us, changed, downplayed it and now just calls for rain with the lowest nighttime temperature of 61º in all that mess.

[BigB0882]

Cyclone Mike, what they were talking about has nothing to do with the possible arctic cold possible in 2-3 weeks time. That is another event entirely.

[weatherguy425]

Well whatever the baton rouge nws office saw is gone. For two days they mentioned the possibility of cold and winter weather for next weekend. They said was looking less likely this morning and this afternoon never even mentioned it. Matter of fact lake Charles didn't and Shreveport just said models coming in warmer. Wonder if this will be one of the outbreaks the models keep pushing back day after day and it never happens.

Thanks for staying on top of things. So, it's looking like we're not going to get this arctic cold snap? I'm ok with that - I really just want to see some sunshine around here. If things change, please know that we are ready for your input.

I would refer to the Texas winter weather thread. This later week storm system was never really associated with a prolonged cold stretch to begin with. Not sure where that NWS office even got that. First in what could be a train of cold fronts should arrive earlier the following week for the gulf coast (1/13-1/15).

[LaBreeze]

How cold for the gulf coast are we talking here weatherguy45? I know it's really far out, but just wondering what your thoughts are. Thanks.

[weatherguy425]

How cold for the gulf coast are we talking here weatherguy45? I know it's really far out, but just wondering what your thoughts are. Thanks.

I really is still far too soon to tell. Pattern does support a significant cold period across most of the nation though. Specifics will be determined as we get closer to the event.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Cyclone Mike, what they were talking about has nothing to do with the possible arctic cold possible in 2-3 weeks time. That is another event entirely.

I don't know big b. Just relaying what our guys have been talking about. Have no idea where they got that information from.

[vbhoutex]

Looking ahead into our immediate future we may have to contend with some nasty weather and possible flooding Tuesday-Wednesday. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=2

[KatDaddy]

A significant weather event to unfold across eastern half of TX during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Rapid storm motion, training cells, high rainfall rates, and high shear values will lead to a flash flood and tornado threat. Flash Flood Watches will likely be required Tuesday and SPC has S and SE TX in slight risk area Wednesday.