Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is worth noting that the Friday event is starting to look slightly more interesting again too. The 18z GFS has decided that it now wants to return to the idea of some light accumulating snows falling across our region with this system (which is less than 72 hours out!):

[Peanut432]

LBK AFD for Sunday and Monday


UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FIRST-HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC NW SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECTS THE CLOSED
UA LOW TO DIG SE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THE UA LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT PROPAGATES SE MONDAY MORNING IT
EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE PER THE GFS...DEPICTING THE SAID SYSTEM TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE SE CONUS TUESDAY MORNING...VERSUS THE ECMWF
CONTINUAL CLOSED LOW DELINEATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS IS ALSO
QUICKER WITH THE UA LOW PROPAGATION TO THE SE CONUS.

THE FACT THAT IT INITIALIZES AS A CLOSED LOW HINTS AT ITS POTENCY
WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT.../IF THE TRAJECTORY IS UNCHANGED/
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AS THE GFS IS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
THE ONSET OF THE NORTHERLY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...ANALYZING LATER MODEL RUNS IS DESIRED AS A CHANGE IN THE
UA LOW TRACK COULD AFFECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH PRECIP
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WILL SHUNT OFF
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ATTM.
THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.

&&

[msstateguy83]

more i look at the other models my confidence is the same this **COULD BE** the biggest event of the year
i mean bigger then dfw, bigger then christmas eve in being so widespread also would not shock me to see
higher amts we could be looking at CRAZY amts of snow for this region if this verifys....

[Ntxw]

more i look at the other models my confidence is the same this **COULD BE** the biggest event of the year
i mean bigger then dfw, bigger then christmas eve in being so widespread also would not shock me to see
higher amts we could be looking at CRAZY amts of snow for this region if this verifys....

Those are pretty big blockbusters you're comparing it to . But I do agree, it could cover a larger region coverage wise and probably have more impacts on travel and property than the recent storms.

[Portastorm]

I'm nonplussed by this storm. Maybe a few flurries for the Red River area and Oklahoma. That's it!

[Ntxw]

I'm nonplussed by this storm. Maybe a few flurries for the Red River area and Oklahoma. That's it!

Pfft! It's nothing compared to the mondo snow you got today Portastorm!

Edit: We need a label for it.

[Portastorm]

I'm nonplussed by this storm. Maybe a few flurries for the Red River area and Oklahoma. That's it!

Pfft! It's nothing compared to the mondo snow you got today Portastorm!

Now you're talking ... that's right. I survived Blizzard 2010 in Austin!

Seriously, this next storm has me intrigued. I don't know if I concur with msstateguy83's bullish thoughts quite yet ... but I think North Texas and Oklahoma have a lot to watch in the next few days. I really don't think it'll do much south of there. I've seen some thoughts about today's 12z Euro run suggesting it could mean a winter storm for central and north Texas but I don't see that. The low is too far north. I think we're done for winter here in Austin.

But you Metroplexers and Red Riveruns ... y'all have more "fun" ahead!

Label for today's storm? How about: The Blizzard of AUS (instead of Oz)??

[Ntxw]

The GFS actually has a widened cut off low, anyone under/north of it is fair game (including northern parts of central Texas). EC is more compact though I agree so again track of it would mean everything.

Edit: Blizzard of AUS, I like that!

[Extremeweatherguy]

more i look at the other models my confidence is the same this **COULD BE** the biggest event of the year
i mean bigger then dfw, bigger then christmas eve in being so widespread also would not shock me to see
higher amts we could be looking at CRAZY amts of snow for this region if this verifys....

Yeah, the potential is definitely there IMO. I am hesitant to compare it to those huge events just yet due to the fact that we are still several days out and also because surface temperatures might be a bit marginal, but I do think that a widespread accumulating snowstorm of at least a few inches is very possible for the southern plains with this, and the opportunity for large amounts (6+ inches) is certainly on the table if things can come together right.

[Ntxw]

EWG, what's the record snowfall in a storm\24hr period for OKC in march?

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, what's the record snowfall in a storm\24hr period for OKC in march?

Its a surprisingly large 11.3 inches back on March 19th, 1924:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/get ... ar&type=pr

[Ntxw]

Wow, that's impressive. Lets see if we can top that next week!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, that's impressive. Lets see if we can top that next week!

That would certainly be amazing if we could manage to top the 11.3" March record! Right now it doesn't look too terribly likely that we will even get close to that much snow, but who knows. Anything seems to be within the realm of possibility this winter! lol

[Ntxw]

Can say that again, already amazing both DFW and OKC broke their daily snowfall records for a single storm. Another big one and both could break all season records (though I'm not sure what the season record is for OKC, I think it was around 25 inches).

[Extremeweatherguy]

The seasonal snow record for OKC is 25.2 inches ('47-'48). So far this winter we have seen 20.4 inches, which means we are currently tied with '77-'78 for 6th place.

[Ntxw]

Totally make-able!

[msstateguy83]

84 hrs out on the NAM... system over cali the one heading our way for late sun/mon looks quite impressive

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS...

114 HRS:


120 HRS:


126 HRS:


36 HR PRECIP (Next Sunday morning through Monday afternoon):


The general idea of this run still looks to support a winter event, but I believe that the GFS could be underestimating precipitation amounts over Oklahoma just a little bit. This has been going back and forth with each run though, so at this point I am not worrying too much about the specifics. Those can be worked out as we get closer to the event.

[Ntxw]

I think the key to that storm will be if it maintains itself as a cutoff low. If it does, the gulf low forming won't have as much of a chance to zap the moisture away from it. Lets see what tonight's ECMWF says.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z ECMWF...

500mb winds - Hr 120 (Sun. Evening):


850mb temps - Hr 120 (Sun. Evening):


850mb RH% - Hr 120 (Sun. Evening):