#6982 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:56 am
Not going to spend a great deal of time on the February Outlook the next few days, but I am seeing some interesting 'hints' at many levels that certainly could offer potential for much colder air arriving near February 7th or so. As we know our atmosphere is connected to so many different features at multiple levels and the features offer clues to what our sensible weather may bring in the long range. I continue to see the MJO inducing the strongest tropical forcing we have seen this winter in the Western Pacific as of today. The ECMWF suggests a move into Phase 7, possibly Phase 8 as we begin February. The Teleconnection Indices suggest a very negative WPO meaning a big Bering Sea/Arctic Circle Ridge and a tanking EPO (Alaska/Yukon Ridge) developing with the possibilities of a Greenland Blocking Ridge as well. Other features are trending toward the possibility of Stratospheric Warming as well as a possible split in the Polar Vortex which has been very stable so far the winter. That mean that all levels from the Stratosphere to the Troposphere may be working together in the days ahead. For those following the guidance, stick to the Ensembles the next week or so to look for signs of the upcoming pattern. Those will give a more realistic understanding of what the pattern may be capable of versus looking at the every 6 hour GFS and even every 12 hour ECMWF.
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